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Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

Perspectives on electoral systems, constitutional design, and policy around the world, based primarily on my research interests.

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  • 20 November 2011

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Spain

    Spain votes in the midst of its troubles. We know who the winner will be–the Popular Party will supplant the Socialists–but by a majority, or will it be another minority government?

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (5)


    01 March 2009

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Spain

    Elections were held today for assemblies in the Spanish regions of Galicia and Euskadi (Basque Country). The following is excerpted from Reuters:

    With 98 percent of ballots counted in northwesterly Galicia, [national] Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s party was on course to cede control back to the conservative main opposition party, the Popular Party, after heading a government there for four years.

    [...the] PP increased their representation to 39 seats from 37, just enough for a majority in the 75-seat house.

    The Socialists, who had governed in coalition with Galician nationalists, slipped to 24 seats from 25.

    The Basque picture is a bit more mixed:

    With 99.9 percent of ballots tallied, the PNV [Basque Nationalist Party] had the biggest share of the vote, but Zapatero’s party appeared set to increase its share to 25 seats from the 18 it won in 2005.

    With the PP set to get 13 seats, a majority coalition in the 75-seat regional Basque assembly between the two main national parties appeared to be a possibility, although they are likely to make uneasy bedfellows.

    I do not know Basque politics at all, but the idea of a coalition between the two main national parties–the PP and the PSOE–seems unlikely. This result portends a minority PNV government to me. (Minority governments are routine in Spain; in fact, Zapatero heads one currently in Madird.)

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (10)


    09 March 2008

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Spain

    BBC reports that the incumbent Socialists appear to have won reelection in Spain’s general election today, though not absolute majority. Projections from exit polls and preliminary results say about 168 164 seats,1 which would leave them just short. (Spain has had many minority governments, with either of the two leading parties able to govern by cooperating with various regional parties.)

    Various news reports I had seen over the past week anticipated the party would not win enough seats to govern alone, but many of these news items also suggested that high turnout would favor the Socialists. An earlier BBC report today had reported that turnout was indeed high.

    1. Yet another recent update again says 168. We’ll know soon. []

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)


    17 July 2007

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: ELECTORAL SYSTEMS & REFORM; Spain

    Josep Colomer has a very interesting post about the work of the Commission of Experts for the Electoral Law of Catalonia, of which he is the chair. In fact, all the members of the Commission are political scientists, which Professor Colomer notes, is “an unprecedented achievement for the discipline in these latitudes.” Actually, is there any such precedent, anywhere? I suspect that idea of asking political scientists to study and propose electoral reform is even more radical than asking citizens (as in British Columbia, Ontario, and the Netherlands).

    There are fifty proposals, which cover a wide range of the legal framework for elections, but I will highlight the proposed changes to districting and lists, quoting from Josep.

    The Parliament of Catalonia is and would keep being elected by proportional representation rules. But its members would be elected in seven districts corresponding to the Catalan government’s territorial structure, instead of the four traditional Spanish provinces. The seat apportionment would maintain some overrepresentation for the scarcely populated territories but would increase the current proportion of seats for the overpopulated, underrepresented area of metropolitan Barcelona. [...]

    The current system of party’s closed lists, which are used in all elections in Spain (together with only Portugal and a few recent democracies such as Bulgaria and Romania), would be replaced with open lists, as in most European countries.

    Based on that reference to “most European countries,” it appears that Josep actually means what are generally called flexible lists (as open lists–in which candidate-preferences votes alone determine the rank order of lists–are not common in Europe). Indeed, Josep goes on to explain the proposed procedure for counting preference votes:

    the voter would have the possibility to select a number of individual candidates within the list (about 20 percent of the number of seats to be elected), and those candidates receiving a proportion of preferential votes higher than 5 percent of their party list votes would be elected in priority, independently from their position in the list.

    I would be skeptical that this would result in a large number of members being elected on their preference votes, as five percent is actually quite a high intra-party threshold, at least for large districts.* Nonetheless, it should make parties more aware of the popularity of candidates than they need to be (especially beyond the top few ranks) under closed lists. Moreover, the bypassing of the original Spanish provinces for what is now a semi-autonomous subnational unit that subsumes those provinces can be regarded as a significant advance in Catalonian political institutions.

    The proposals must be enacted by parliament, where they require a two-thirds vote.

    ___
    * Based on seven districts and the current 135 seats in the parliament, the mean district magnitude would be over 19. (Currently the mean is around 34, and the Barcelona district has 85 seats; the smallest current district elects 15.)

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (2)


    Fruits and Votes grafted Preference vote shares

    FRUIT FEEDS
    PROPAGATION
    Recent comments.

  • Does STV have anything to do with absence of “free votes” in Ireland? (13)
    • JD: Tom: So you mean primaries as practised in the US. I don’t think primaries are understood to include this provision anywhere else, even...
    • Alan: What Tom said, except that I’d add that the major parties in Australia have a habit of subverting their own rules by imposing...
    • Tom Round: JD, because a government body has an electoral roll stating that “These people are registered supporters of the Democratic Party,...
    • JD: Tom, I’m not sure I understand why primaries the secret ballot. Alan, how is that different from a (closed) primary?
    • Alan: I’m not a fan of primaries, for the reasons Tom states. I am a fan of requiring parties to nominate candidates by a ballot of all party...
    • Tom Round: It would indeed be ironic if one reason discouraging parties from allowing free votes was an electoral system that could enable voters...
  • BC election 2013 (8)
    • Chris: The federal Liberal party hate the Conservatives more than they hate the NDP. They think Trudeau fil will get them a majority government,...
    • Ed: Its been explained to me that BC politics seems complicated, but is actually pretty simple: everyone gangs up against the NDP, but the...
    • MSS: I am struck by the degree of malapportionmen t in BC. For instance, the Peace River South winner’s 46.4% was only 3,904 votes, whereas...
    • MSS: The Green Party won the Oak Bay-Gordon Head seat, with 40.1%. It was not close, with incumbent Liberal Ida Chong having only 29.7% and the NDP...
    • MSS: I guess this is why they still have actual elections with actual voters casting actual ballots! How could the pollsters be so wrong?
    • Vasi: Well that was surprising! Once again, the polls in a Canadian election were off, and the incumbents do much better than expected.
    • Tom Round: BC: where a 39% sub-plurality is enough to elect a government for five years (absolute majority of seats, no upper house) but a 57%...
    • JD: Oh, how different (and more interesting) things would have been had STV been approved…
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