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Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

Perspectives on electoral systems, constitutional design, and policy around the world, based primarily on my research interests.

Also experiences with growing many varieties of fruit (always organic) and other personal interests. Please see the Mission Statement for more. (There is also an explanation of the banner.)

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  • 09 September 2005

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Homeland security/disaster response

    Fascinating post today by California Yankee on FEMA head Brown being relieved of Katrina duties (though apparently not fired from his position).

    A comment to an earlier post at California Yankee by Gordon Jones asks a very good question: If Brown was in fact as underqualified as much media criticism post-hurricane has alleged (and I believe), where was the criticism when he was up for confirmation?

    That is a good question, and kudos to California Yankee for following up with some research finding that there was indeed lack of controversy about Brown’s qualifications at the time.

    Nonetheless, the fact that an opposition party is not at time “A” playing its proper skeptical role with respect to an official’s appointment does not excuse either lack of qualifications or subsequent incompetence by said official, as revealed at time “B.”

    The lack of scrutiny could be due to the institutional problems I have mentioned in previous posts: FEMA had become much less visible (and hence less controversial) as part of its subordination to the new DHS. Lack of scrutiny of a relatively low-level position could be additionally due to the general deference the “opposition” in Congress generally was according Bush in the post-9/11 period and in the immediate pre-Iraq-war phase (Brown was confirmed to be deputy director in June, 2002, and promoted to director in January, 2003).

    As I have noted before, the decision to downgrade FEMA was a bipartisan one. That does not make it a good one.

    I think this is all the more reason to re-upgrade the position to cabinet level (or better yet, a more independent agency like the FBI or CIA). Then there is likely to be better scrutiny of its head.

    I agree that Brown must go. But I reiterate that just changing the head is not enough. The problems are deeper.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    08 September 2005

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Homeland security/disaster response

    Poly Sigh has a valuable post today on the latest Pew Research Report.

    Key passage (from Pew):

    the president’s ratings have slipped most among his core constituents – Republicans and conservatives.

    Key commentary (from Poly Sigh):

    Bush’s approval rating has always been based on keeping the overwhelming support of his base. If that goes, he’s in real trouble.

    Indeed, just as I suggested on Saturday and yesterday. (Yes, that tooting sound you hear is my own horn.)

    Note that this is not just approval of Bush’s handling of Katrina, but overall job approval (which Pew puts at 40%, versus 52% disapproving).

    UPDATE: More about this poll and others out in the last couple of days at Public Brewey and at Mystery Pollster.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    07 September 2005

    The new Gallup poll on public opinion regarding government responses to Hurricane Katrina reports the following (among many other findings):

    By partisan affiliation, positive-negative in rating of Bush’s handling of the disaster:

    Republicans: 69-10
    Democrats: 10-66
    Independents: 29-47

    The immediate interocular tells us that this is a strong partisan split. However, a few days ago, in response to a different poll, I asked if there was not evidence that the partisan lens through which voters viewed Bush was weakening, at least a little bit, even if only temporarily. These numbers are less strongly partisan than recent polls of overall approval, which generally have close to 90% of Republicans approving and only a somewhat smaller percentage of Democrats disapproving.

    It will be very interesting to see what the first post-hurricane poll of general job approval shows. There may be some breaking of the partisan lens, but it remains to be seen whether that applies only to this extraordinary event, or is a broader phenomenon. If it is broader, it is a bad sign for Bush.

    Note: The source I used may be unavailable shortly, as Gallup apparently makes the analysis of its polls available for only around 24 hours. Thanks to Paul Brewer for the pointer. Also recommended is the analysis by Mystery Pollster.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)


    The Moderate Voice grafted Around The 'Sphere April 22, 2006

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Homeland security/disaster response

    I did not get around to posting this yesterday, but the Sept. 7 program of Democracy Now! had a rather remarkable segment on volunteer rescuers in Jefferson Parish near New Orleans. It runs about 15 minutes (find the viedo stream link above the transcript on this page.)

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    05 September 2005

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Homeland security/disaster response; Travel

    I had been wanting to post something about my feelings for this great city—long one of my favorite cities in the world, even if I have been there just a few times.

    Well Kingdaddy has already done such a tribute more eloquently than I could have done, and so I am just going to add one specific memory of my own.

    This one experience has been seared in my mind for exactly twenty years. It was during and immediately after a meeting of the American Political Science Association, which means it was Labor Day weekend. I stayed a couple of nights past the end of the meetings to do some sightseeing. It was only my second visit to the city.

    A hurricane was approaching (which may explain why APSA has not returned to the city). I remember watching the city slowly go quiet as everything was being boarded up.

    Well, almost everything. That night—with the storm (a “mere” Category 1) expected the next day—I went down to Preservation Hall. Where nights before there had been long lines of tourists waiting to get in, this night there was almost no one there aside from the musicians and a few hardy (or foolhardy) souls. I got to sit right up front for hours and listen to the best jazz music I have ever heard.

    It seemed such a metaphor for the city. A hurricane looms, but the jazz goes on.

    Now a hurricane has struck, thousands are feared dead, and thousands more are refugees. The jazz is silenced. But it will return. And so will one of America’s great cities.

    In the meantime, those who love New Orleans and its musical heritage might consider a special contribution to the New Orleans Musicians Hurricane Relief Fund, organized by Preservation Hall itself. [Note: I have no personal knowledge of this fund; as with all giving, check it out for yourself and decide if it is right for you.]

    Kingdaddy, in his outstanding post, also addresses some of the issues of hurricane response, as they relate to the national-security bureaucracy, that I have raised in other posts. But for now, all I want is to hear is that jazz from Preservation Hall.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (3)


    The Sunday LA Times ran a piece on the consequences of the decision to place FEMA within the Department of Homeland Security—a theme I raised in a post on September 1.

    Regarding FEMA, the Times notes:

    The agency’s core budget, which includes disaster preparedness and mitigation, has been cut each year since it was absorbed by the Homeland Security Department in 2003.

    The agency’s staff has been reduced by 500 positions…

    and

    Three out of every four dollars the agency provides in local preparedness and first-responder grants go to terrorism-related activities

    Another portion of the piece goes to the heart of the discussion Steven Taylor and I have been having in the comments about the relative roles of state (and local) vs. federal agencies.

    Under the law, [Homeland Security Secretary Michael ] Chertoff said, state and local officials must direct initial emergency operations. “The federal government comes in and supports those officials,” he said,

    which drew the following response from Jane Bullock, former FEMA chief of staff:

    The moment the president declared a federal disaster, it became a federal responsibility…. The federal government took ownership over the response.

    The Times story has a brief overview of the history of federal involvement in disaster relief, noting that it was largely nonexistant until 1972 and ad hoc until the directorship of James Lee Witt. During the Clinton years, Witt had FEMA take a very proactive role in assisting communities in preparing for floods, earthquakes, and other disasters.

    However, this role for FEMA was not institutionalized and thus would not carry over to a new directorship:

    But with the change of administration in 2001, many of Witt’s prevention programs were reduced or cut entirely.

    Then, after 9/11, there was a change in the institutional role of FEMA, when it was subsumed within DHS:

    After Sept. 11, former FEMA officials and outside authorities said, Washington’s attention turned to terrorism to the exclusion of almost anything else.

    As I alluded to in the September 1 post linked above, an “attack by nature” is every bit as much the kind of crisis demanding federal attention as an attack by an invading army or terrorists. 9/11 did not make hurricanes or earthquakes less likely, and post-9/11 changes to the way FEMA as an institution relates to the rest of the executive branch are under a severe test right now—a test they seem to be failing.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    04 September 2005

    There are two primary means by which citizens might assess blame for what almost everyone seems to agree was an inadequate on-the-ground response to the disaster at the Gulf Coast:

    1. The president is responsible and should be blamed for not acting faster and more decisively as soon as the scale of the storm was known;

    2. Nature is responsible; the scale of this disaster was simply too unprecedented.

    I have been thinking about this matter since reading two posts this morning—one by California Yankee on a new poll gauging public opinion so far, the other by Poliblogger, spelling out the case for the “nature” position.

    In the ABC/Washington Post poll regarding Hurricane Katrina, nearly 3/4 of Republicans approve of the president’s performance in the disaster, while around 70% of Democrats do not.

    This looks like a clear partisan divide, and it is. And one could interpret it as saying Democrats balme the president, while Republicans blame nature. But when put in a broader context, it is clear that nature has trumped partisanship at least to some extent.

    Compared to the correlation of partisan affiliation with assessments of the president overall, or of his handling of Iraq, this poll result actually shows a decrease in the extent to which the partisan lens is being used to view the response to this crisis.

    That could be a very bad sign for Bush.
    In the most recent ABC/Washington Post poll (August 28; see note below) of overall presidential approval, Republicans support him 87-12. But on Katrina, it is 74-22. His gains among Democrats in assessment of handling the hurricane are not as strong as his losses among Republicans. Democrats overall approved 13-84 in the August 28 poll, but on Katrina they approve 17-71. In other words, comparing the two polls, among Republicans his approval drops 13 points and disapproval rises 10 points, but among Democrats approval rises only 4 points even while disapproval drops 13 points.

    So, has the hurricane broken the partisan-ship loose from its moorings?

    Or is this just a blip (or even a statistical anomaly of comparing two different polls)?

    [Note: The link for the ABC/WashPost poll of August 28 takes you to a page that is dated July 29, but from the context (i.e. references to Cindy Sheehan) that is clearly wrong. The PDF link at the bottom of the page takes you to a detailed summary of the poll with the correct date.]

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (7)


    PoliBlog: Politics is the Master Science grafted On Criticizing the Response to Katrina
    » When you know you’ve been blogging too long when … » Arguing with signposts… » Blog Archive grafted [...] But as you lean forward and ask the question, you realize that seated next to Dr. Taylor is Dr. Matthew Shuggart, and you’ve asked him instead. [...]

    I was listening to my local NPR affiliate, KPBS, this morning. They have a program called “The Editors’ Roundtable” in which a panel of editors from local news publications discusses issues of the day. It originally aired Friday, but it is the sort of thing that gets replayed at 6 a.m. on a Sunday morning.

    In practically the same breath, one of the editors said that (1) we—all of us as individuals—need to conserve fuel in this time of crisis and shortage; and (2) let’s get rid of the federal gas tax for a while.

    What?! Reducing the tax on gas is directly contrary to the objective of conservation. Nothing focuses the mind on conservation like rising prices. The guy was clearly unaware of his inconsistent recommendations, and no one else on the panel called him on it.

    The idea of cutting or eliminating taxes on gasoline was something I first saw over at Arguing with Signposts, and I hoped it was just an isolated call. But I should have known better.

    Let us consider: what do these taxes fund? Public goods. Things like highway maintenance and mass transit. In other words, things we need now more than ever, with portions of the infrastructure damaged by Hurricane Katrina and with high gas prices likely to encourage more people to use our nation’s meager mass transit systems. If the taxes that fund these public goods are cut, how will the difference be made up (without adding to the deficit, that is)? What revenues will be raised to offset the shortfall? Or will our public services simply deteriorate yet further? I’d bet on the latter.

    I am not an economist, but I am skeptical of the price benefit we would get from a tax rollback anyway. Fuel is in shorter supply, and absent a major conservation effort, led from the White House, demand will remain high. So then will prices, only with a greater share of the price we pay going to the oil companies and a smaller share going to support essential public goods.

    Here we have just been through a catastrophe that exposes the inadequacy of our public infrastructure and emergency services, and we have people calling for undermining, rather than strengthening the public’s commitment to the commonweal.

    Frankly, I am appalled. But I should not be surprised. We live in an era in which the idea of a public space has steadily been under attack. We live under an administration that, after 9/11, with a people in shock and ready to sacrifice for the greater good, called on people to travel and go shopping, while mobilizing for war in Iraq.

    And so it goes, on and on.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)


    03 September 2005

    Random Fate really gets to the heart of the matter on the bumbling response of all levels of government to Hurricane Katrina, and on the responsibility of we citizens who fail to demand better of our leaders and system of government.

    Jack is right, it is all about accountability.

    Here are just a few snippets from his answers to the question of “who is accountable?”:

    Those who voted for candidates who said what the voters wanted to hear instead of what they needed to hear.

    Those who voted for their own regional concerns first and only incidentally thought about the nation as a whole.

    Those who voted based on a single issue.

    And he concludes with:

    The people of Lebanon and Ukraine peacefully forced change through against all odds. We have a stable system that they did not have, we have advantages they did not have, we can make changes through the ballot box.

    Yet we refuse to change.

    Yes, and that is appalling. But many of the problems Jack refers to are systemic in nature, and not just problems of bad leaders or the people who voted for them (or didn’t vote at all). Problems of accountability and system capacity require institutional change. Yet there we are even more complacent. That will be an ongoing theme of F&V, and as such, is an argument for another day.

    Jack’s is simply a great, hard-hitting, must-read post.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    OK, in my post the other day about the importance of institutionalized accountability of FEMA to the President, I concluded with some willingness to give the benefit of the doubt to the reorganization of FEMA under the Department of Homeland Security since 2002.

    Further, I noted that the priority placed on preparedness for natural disasters depends on the whims of whoever is chief executive. The FEMA head is a political appointee, and particularly when he or she is a layer or two in the bureaucratic pecking order below the President, the choice of the person who will head the agency is all that much more critical.

    Well, I think it is getting clearer every day that this was not a priority of this administration at all, and Brad DeLong has done a terrific job of pulling together a series of articles and comments about just this critical problem.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)


    PoliBlog: Politics is the Master Science grafted Frustrating and Embarrassing: Tales from FEMA

    01 September 2005

    If the paper in question had been a Democratic-leaning paper, I would not have posted this, because I do not intend for this blog to be partisan.

    But coming from the New Hampshire Union Leader, a very conservative paper, an editorial that says Bush’s reponse to Katrina reflects a “a diffident detachment unsuitable for the leader of a nation facing war, natural disaster and economic uncertainty” is worthy of note.

    (Although it stated on the day of the general election in 2000, that Bush “failed to impress us during the New Hampshire primary” the Union Leader endorsed him.)

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    The disaster in New Orleans and the Gulf Coast is a serious test for the government regorganization that came about as a result of the creation of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Among the many agencies to have been consolidated under the vast DHS umbrella is the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

    In this context, it is very interesting to go back to Hurricane Andrew in 1992, one of the largest previous disasters in US history, and one that led to widespread criticism of FEMA.

    Specifically, I am going to pick up the story with some congressional hearings that took place after President Clinton’s inauguration in January, 1993. (My research for this post is primarily via Lexis Nexis and thus many of my references will not include links; any emphasis in these quotes is mine, and not in the original.)

    On January 28, 1993, the Washington Post reported:

    Urging a sharp departure from federal disaster response policy, several specialists yesterday told a Senate subcommittee that the military should be given a much greater role in the government’s handling of natural catastrophes, taking over some functions of the beleaguered Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

    Moreover, a Cabinet member or senior White House official should be responsible for coordinating disaster response to provide accountability at a high political level, experts told the Appropriations subcommittee that funds FEMA.

    Further detail on the recommendations of some witnesses at the hearings regarding a military role:

    “The military is the only game in town to come in quickly and effectively after a mega-disaster like Andrew,” declared J. Dexter Peach, assistant comptroller general of the General Accounting Office [...] He suggested that the Army, which did not arrive in force in Florida until nearly a week after Andrew, could be brought in immediately after a disaster, or even pre-positioned in predictable disasters such as hurricanes.

    In late February, 1993, there were several reports that emphasized FEMA’s severe problems of accountability, as well as its relationship with military missions. Regarding a secret program set up with the help of Oliver North, and that only 20 members of Congress were aware of, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch noted on February 22, 1993:

    …the program has grown to “Doctor Strangelove” scale:

    A fleet of 300 vehicles in five mobile units at sites from Washington state to Massachusetts.

    [...]

    Sensitive radio, telephone and satellite gear – much of it classified – stored in custom-built trucks resembling mobile bank vaults.

    Budgets totaling $ 1.3 billion over the last 10 years appearing annually as a single line – “submitted under a separate package.”

    [...]

    Despite the obvious communications power, no complete mobile unit has ever been used in a natural disaster – although parts of three units were used after Hurricane Andrew. Most FEMA employees assigned to deal with Andrew didn’t even know about the agency’s full strength because of what congressional investigators dubbed “a black curtain” of secrecy.

    For example, the city manager of Homestead, Fla., which was ravaged by the hurricane, pleaded for 100 hand-held radios because the town had only one working telephone. Instead, FEMA sent high-tech vans, capable of sending encrypted, multi-frequency radio messages to military aircraft halfway around the world.

    By July 23, 1993, the Washington Post reported on an official report by the General Accounting Office:

    “To improve the federal response, the nation needs presidential involvement and leadership both before and after a catastrophic disaster strikes,” the GAO said. Appointment of a key White House official as a disaster coordinator would institutionalize presidential involvement and replace the kind of “ad hoc” response that was evident during Andrew and other disasters, the report said.

    So, here we have some recommendations from the GAO in 1993. What did Congress and President Clinton do with them? Nothing in terms of legislation that I found, nothing about a possible greater coordination with and readiness of the military for such a disaster, and only some administrative reorganization.

    On October 19, 1993, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette noted that the Clinton Administration had chosen FEMA as one of the targets of VP Al Gore’s “reinventing government” program designed to streamline government agencies. Meanwile, at least two bills had been filed in Congress aimed at more fundamental restrcturing, but as far as I can tell, they went nowhere.

    In 1993 and 1994, FEMA had two other major natural disasters to respond to: Flooding in several midwestern states, and the Northridge, California, earthquake. The thrust of several stories was that FEMA acquitted itself well in these cases. However, as terrible as these disasters were, they are of a lesser logistical scale than responses to massive hurricanes like Andrew, let alone Katrina.

    Now, move ahead to today. The LA Times today refers to “a diminished FEMA“:

    Previously a Cabinet-level agency that reported directly to the president, FEMA was folded into the vast bureaucracy of the newly created Department of Homeland Security. Both resources and energy devoted to preparing for natural disasters were reduced, giving way to the bureaucratic demands of organizing the home-front war on terrorism.

    And, of course, there has been much play about the warnings in 2001 (and I am sure there were others earlier) that New Orleans was literally a disaster waiting to happen, yet budgets for improvements to the levee system were cut by Congress. Today’s Times story again:

    In 2005, for instance, the Army Corps of Engineers requested $78 million for the flood project. The president cut the request to $30 million and in the end, Congress approved $36.5 million.

    The upgrade of terrorism as a priority in government disaster preparation after 9/11 was obviously necessary, and indeed overdue. But 9/11 did not make major hurricanes and other non-terrorist disasters any less likely to occur than they had been before. Besides, an emergency is an emergency. It really does not matter if it is a storm or bomb that throws you out of your house and leads to the near-total breakdown of civil order and public services in your city. Again, from today’s Times story:

    “When Homeland Security came, everything became terrorism,” said Bob Freitag, a 20-year veteran of FEMA who now teaches at the University of Washington. “There’s no balance.”

    I have read and heard several times in the last few days that FEMA had been made a “cabinet-level” position, that reported, as today’s LA Times puts it, “directly to the president.” Some stories have placed this “upgrade” in 1992. Such an upgrade would be in line with what the GAO recommended, as quoted above. However, that GAO study is from 1993, not 1992. Moreover, a fairly exhaustive Lexis Nexis search fails to turn up any news reports in 1992 of FEMA’s having been upgraded to cabinet level. And, as late as September 15, 1992, the Christian Science Monitor still referred to FEMA as having been, since its creation under Carter, a “Level II” organization, “just under cabinet status, reporting nominally to the president.”

    This is not just organizational flow-chart stuff. This concerns the accountability of the agency responsible for assisting people in an emergency. An agency can be made cabinet level only by an act of Congress. Otherwise its status and the extent of presidential attention is ad hoc, and subject to the whims of the president at any given time. This was the reason, for example, why the Office of Homeland Security established after 9/11 was upgraded to a Department, despite initial resistance from President Bush: to give it cabinet authority and budgetary power. And, moreover, as a mean by which Congress forces the President to take heed of the needs and functions of the agency/department in question.

    It is unfortunate, to say the least, that warnings about that agency’s poor standing in the executive branch that go at least as far back as the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew were not heeded and turned into law. Quite the contrary, the agency got subordinated to DHS in 2002, and preparations for the specific sort of disaster that has just taken place were subjected to budget cuts.

    The risks of placing FEMA in this new super-agency instead of maintaining its organizational independence were noted at the time. For instance, the Washington Post on July 24, 2002 noted that:

    FEMA, since its rejuvenation during the Clinton administration under James Lee Witt, has become one of the most popular agencies with the public and Congress. With the Cold War having ended, Witt, the former director of Arkansas’s emergency services, reduced spending and concern with civil defense preparations to meet a nuclear attack, and focused on rapid on-the-scene delivery of services when disasters struck.

    Note that this is the sort of ad hoc reorganization, dependent on the priorities of the incumbent president, that I was referring to above. This was not a change that was institutionalized in legislation. In fact, the big change that was institutionalized in legislation was the subordination to DHS in 2002.

    Continuing with the Post‘s 2002 story:

    The new FEMA, as envisioned by the Bush plan, would become a $ 6 billion agency within the new Homeland Security Department but, as members of Congress quickly noted, its major interest would change. It would become primarily a national security grant-giver, trainer and coordinator for meeting terrorist threats rather than being the primary responder, supervising and distributing major disaster relief. “It would change to be primarily a preparedness agency,” a congressional aide said. And, he added, “training for a terrorist attack is far different from training to meet national disasters.”

    [...]

    Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman James M. Jeffords (I-Vt.) has asked that FEMA remain outside the new department [...]

    Witt, the former FEMA director, said moving “the entire agency into the new department will be a mistake.”

    I do not believe it is “playing politics” with the disaster to point out that political decisions taken (and not taken) have had a nontrivial effect on the horrific impact of Katrina and the response to it. And, in fact, I am not even saying that the decision to place FEMA inside DHS has made the government’s response to this disaster less efficient that it otherwise would have been. What I am saying is that the possibility is there, and these days serve as a critical test of that decision.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (3)


    CALIFORNIA YANKEE grafted FEMA: It's More Than Brown

    31 August 2005

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Homeland security/disaster response

    California Yankee has an excellent post on how to help the victims of this terrible storm. A lot of research and thought went into the creation of his post.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)


    CALIFORNIA YANKEE grafted Help Hurricane Katrina Victims

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