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This is the Web-log of Professor Matthew Shugart ("MSS"); however, other "planters" have been invited to contribute. Please check the "Planted by" line to see the author of the post you are reading.

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  • 19 March 2010

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Britain, Canada

    Most polls in the UK continue to show that the election, expected 6 May, is likely to result in no single party holding a majority of seats. A so-called hung parliament certainly is not something in the recent experience of The Mother of All Parliaments. The prospect is getting a lot of attention in the British media–predictably, most of it not positive. In fact the very term, hung parliament, implies indecision: juries, after all, have failed to render their required dichotomous verdict when they are “hung.”

    A minority situation last resulted from a UK election in 1974 (the election of February of that year, which was shortly followed by one in October that produced a narrow Labour majority). It just may happen in 2010. There is even a chance, if the voting result is close, that we could see a reversed plurality: Conservatives will almost certainly have the voting plurality, but they presumably need a lead of several percentage points to win the plurality (let alone a majority) of seats. As John Rentoul notes, that is the “nightmare” for Nick Clegg, leader of the third largest party, the Liberal Democrats.

    Clegg has been careful to say that it is the voters, not he or his party, that are the “kingmakers.” He has also been careful not to delcare that he will work with the party that has the most seats, but rather with the party with the “strongest mandate.” In a reversal situation, that would be quite ambiguous indeed.

    While no-majority situations have been rare in the UK, they have been rather common in one of the “daughters” of Westminster: Canada. As noted in a recent Globe and Mail article, Canadian experience is being invoked on the British campaign trail. Some campaigners for the big parties are warning of an alleged “nightmare scenario” of “Canadian-style” minority government if there is a “hung” parliament. Liberal Democrats, on the other hand, are touting Canada’s experience with reducing its deficit in the 1990s (to be fair, under majority Liberal governments) as a model. Of course, the not-so-subtle message is that it is a model that Britain would follow only if the Liberal Democrats were in a position to bargain with a minority cabinet and prevent either big party from implementing its own designs.

    Not only would a representative parliament–as I prefer to call it–not be a disaster for Britain, it actually could be quite beneficial.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (16)


    04 February 2010

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Canada, Presidential & Parliamentary Systems

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (7)


    05 October 2009

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (4)


    15 July 2009

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (88)


    14 July 2009

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Canada, ELECTORAL SYSTEMS & REFORM

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (10)


    14 May 2009

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: B.C., ELECTORAL SYSTEMS & REFORM

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    13 May 2009

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: B.C., Canada, Plurality, STV/IRV

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (22)


    10 May 2009

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: B.C., Canada, Referenda, STV/IRV

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (7)


    08 May 2009

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Canada, N.S., Plurality

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)


    03 May 2009

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: B.C., Canada, Citizens assemblies, STV/IRV

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (13)


    28 January 2009

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Canada, Coalition governance

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (2)


    26 January 2009

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Canada

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    22 December 2008

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Bicameralism, Canada

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (23)


    15 December 2008

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Canada, Coalition governance

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (8)


    08 December 2008

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Canada, Qc.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (4)


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    Recent comments.

  • Labor-Green agreement (14)
    • Tom Round: [Note for the record that I spotted the India/ UK/ Canada/ Aust/ NZ hung parliaments before reading Dunleavy's post a few days back......
    • Ed: Actually, the sudden rash of uncontrolled (or hung, or balanced) parliaments elected single member districts cuts against both sides of the...
    • Wilf Day: Duverger’s Law is clearly dead, and the idea of using a voting system to artificially create Parliamentary majorities is on its...
    • Ed: My reading of Australian poltics is probably flawed, since I am not Australian, plus the situation now is unusually fluid. That said is the...
    • Ed: In the following situation: 1) a government determining House has an even number of deputies, 2) the government party or parties have exact...
    • Tom Round: From Wilkie to Franklin… No, not the 1940 US presidential election, but the Tasmanian House of Assembly. Looks like the 1998...
    • Alan: It’s no defence of a silly rule, but Australia did not have a party system when the constitution was written. In my view the rule in...
    • Bancki: The Speaker does not vote in the House except in the event of a tied vote. I’ve always found this to be a strange rule: - when a...
    • Alan: 74 Labor 3 independents 73 Coalition.
    • Tom Round: Alan, the Senate ruled early in its history (this is mentioned somewhere in Quick & Garran) that sec 17’s “the Senate...
    • Alan: @Tom s57 and s128 apply to very specific situations and are therefore exceptions to a general rule. I suggest the relevant provision is s40:...
    • Tom Round: [What Alan said, +] … or if a non-Govt MP is elected Speaker, and thus can vote only to break a tie, which won’t arise in a...
    • Vasi: Is there any recent precedent for such an agreement in Australia? If Labor and the Greens are committing to reliably vote together until the...
    • Alan: The Labor-Green alignment actually falls 2, not 3, short of a majority. People have tended to assume an absolute majority of 76 is required....
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