Fruits and Votes

Planted by Alan
Planted in: Africa; Authoritarianism

I realise this is a purely theoretical document, but it’s an interesting constitution nevertheless. It follows pretty much the standard South Africa/Kenya model.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (4)

04 December 2012

Egypt’s draft semi-presidential constitution

Planted by MSS
Planted in: CONSTITUTIONS; Egypt; Presidential & Parliamentary Systems

The draft Egyptian constitution is now available in English. As expected, it establishes a semi-presidential system.

One oddity that jumped out at me: it has a term of office for the House of Representatives (5 years) that is longer than that for the President (4). I can’t recall ever seeing that before.

The House can withdraw its confidence from the Prime Minister by absolute majority of all members, and upon proposal by one tenth of the membership (Art. 126). Another odd provision is that it seems a successful vote of no-confidence only affects the tenure of the PM himself unless “the Cabinet announced its solidarity with him before the vote,” in which case the whole cabinet must resign.

The president appoints the prime minister, who then has 30 days to form a cabinet. If this proposed cabinet does not obtain confidence, “the President shall appoint another Prime Minister from the party that holds the majority of seats in the House of Representatives” (this stricture is not imposed on the initial appointment). If this PM also fails to gain confidence (how could he, given the majority-party stricture, or maybe the Arabic actually means “plurality”), then the House itself appoints a PM. If that PM also somehow fails to assemble a cabinet that can gain confidence, there must be a new House election within 60 days. (These provisions are somewhat akin to those of the Polish constitution.)

I do not see a specific provision related to the resignation of a cabinet, aside from those regarding withdrawal of parliamentary confidence. The silence of the constitution on whether the president can force the resignation of a PM leads me to believe this constitution should be classified as president-parliamentary, rather than premier-presidential.

The president may dissolve the House, though only after calling and winning a referendum to that effect. If he loses the referendum, the president must resign (Art. 127).

The constitution, unsurprisingly, grants protection to the armed forces. Not only is the military singled out as having “protected” the revolution in one of the first statements of the constitution, but also Art. 194 says “The Armed Forces shall belong to the people” and Art. 195 says that “The Minister of Defense is the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces, appointed from among its officers” (my emphasis). It seems to me that the military is thus made essentially above the law, or at least not subordinate to the president or legislature.

In matters of religion and state, God is mentioned in the second line of the preamble, Art. 2 says “Islam is the religion of the state and Arabic its official language. Principles of Islamic Sharia are the principal source of legislation” and Art. 3 says “The canon principles of Egyptian Christians and Jews are the main source of legislation for their personal status laws, religious affairs, and the selection of their spiritual leaders.”

A referendum on the draft constitution is set for 15 December.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (19)

The Proposed Egyptian Constitution grafted [...] Matthew Shugart reads the draft Egyptian constitution, so you don’t have to. [...]

28 September 2012

Egypt draft constitution on religion

Planted by MSS
Planted in: CONSTITUTIONS; Egypt; Tunisia

I was pleasantly surprised to see this in the draft constitution for Egypt:

Article 3 The practice of Christianity and Judaism

Persons embracing Christianity and Judaism shall have the right to revert to their respective religious laws in matters relevant to personal affairs, the practice of religious (affairs) or (rituals), and the nomination of spiritual leaders.

On the other hand, there is this (in Art. 2):

Islam is the religion of the State and Arabic is the official language. The principles of Islamic Law are the main source of legislation and Al-Azhar is the final authority in the interpretation thereof.

and this:

Article 4 Al-Azhar

Al-Azhar is an independent Islamic authority, headquartered in Cairo, and responsible for the affairs of the Islamic nation and the world as a whole. [...]

(Egypt’s draft, at least the English translation posted, does not yet define the system of government.)

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08 July 2012

Libya’s electoral system

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Africa; ELECTORAL SYSTEMS & REFORM; Mixed-member

The elections for a constituent assembly in Libya on 7 July were apparently held under a Mixed-Member Majoritarian (MMM, or parallel) system. Results will not be available for a few days, but that won’t stop various parties from releasing their own claims.

There were 120 seats in a nominal tier, and 80 list seats.

I have a version of the law that someone sent me back in February. I do not know if it was subsequently amended or not. And, of course, it is a translation and may have lost something in the process. Update: David Jandura has much more, including that one region actually has no list seats. (I should have known to look there first!)

The version of the law that I have says that the 120 seats are “by majority system” but then indicates that if the constituency has one seat, it is “FPTP” and if it has more than one, it is “SNTV”. (The terms in quotation marks actually appear in the version I am reading.) Thus it is not a “majority system”, but that may just be poor translation. It is not clear to me how many districts have M=1 and how many M>1 and hence SNTV. It seems that parties could not formally endorse candidates in the nominal tier.

The list tier is districted, but I am unable to tell how many districts there are (and hence their average magnitude). The allocation formula is simple (Hare) quota with largest remainders. Lists are to alternate men and women, and are apparently closed.

Welcome to the wonderful world of electoral systems, Libyans!

Propagation: Seeds & scions (6)

05 July 2012

MMP in Lesotho, 2012

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Lesotho; Mixed-member

Following the debacle of 2007, Lesotho had a successful MMP election earlier this year (16 May).¹

The system continues to have a nominal tier made up of 80 single-seat districts, decided by plurality, and a list tier of 40 seats. The following examples confirm that it remains MMP:

2. The ABC won 25% of the list votes and 26 constituencies. Its list votes are 4, giving it 30 seats (25%) in total.

3. The LCD won 22% of the list votes and 12 districts. Its was awarded 14 list seats to bring its seat total to 26, or 21.67% of the total.

4. The BNP won 4% of the party vote and no districts. Apparently there is no, or an extremely low threshold, which would entitle it to 4 or 5 seats. It won 5, all from the list. (A few parties won a single seat off the list on less than 1% of the vote.)

In 2007, the allocation had appeared to be de facto MMM, because each of the two biggest parties had set up “dummy” lists that ran no candidates in the nominal tier. This allowed the main parties to win single-seat districts plus a full proportional share of the list seats for their dummies. In that election, the LCD and its dummy combined for 83 seats on around half the votes.

I think that there is now just a single vote, instead of separate nominal and list votes. The thread on the 2007 results (first link here) had some extensive discussion of possible ways to limit gaming of MMP without going to a single vote.

See results from the Independent Electoral Commission (PDF). [↩]

Propagation: Seeds & scions (5)

14 June 2012

Egyptian court rulings

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Egypt; ELECTORAL SYSTEMS & REFORM

Egypt’s Constitutional Court has ruled unconstitutional the nominal tier of last year’s legislative election– the 1/3 of seats that were elected by majority in 2-seat constituencies. (heard on BBC radio; news outlets, e.g. Reuters, are just getting this out)

These seats were dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood.

The court also ruled against a law, passed by this parliament, that would have disqualified Ahmed Shafik, from the presidential runoff.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (5)

25 May 2012

Brotherhood vs. Mubarak’s last PM

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Egypt; Electing presidents

It appears the runoff in Egypt’s presidential election will be between two candidates who combined for less than half the votes cast–out of a turnout of well under half the voters.

Mohammed Morsi of the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party polled around 26% in the two-day first round. Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak’s last prime minister, came second with 23% when 90% of the votes had been counted. (The Guardian)

Not promising.

The runoff will be 16-17 June.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)

Egypt and transition sequencing

Planted by MSS
Planted in: CONSTITUTIONS; Egypt; Electing presidents

It would seem that one would not want to wait until the week of a presidential election–or worse still, between rounds of said election–to define the powers of the president-to-be. But then there is Egypt.

I believe it is unusual for a president to be elected before a constitution–even a provisional one–has been enacted. Normally, there is a constituent assembly, during which time a provisional government remains in place, as in Tunisia currently, or else a constitution is negotiated prior to any elections (as with several Eastern European and African transitions of the 1990s). In fact, the only other examples that come to mind of presidential elections preceding a determination of presidential powers are Nicaragua (1984) and Romania (1990). At least in the latter case, the the first president was elected to only a two-year term (as was the concurrently elected constituent assembly).

Meanwhile, apparently the voter turnout in this week’s first round of the presidential elation was only 50% or even just 40%. Either figure would be really, really low for a first presidential election in a transition to democracy–or an alleged such transition.

This is not the first time that the Egyptian transition has prompted me to fret over issues of sequencing or turnout.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (2)

09 April 2012

Mali coup codified?

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Africa

Following the military coup in Mali, an agreement has been reached (apparently) for the military leader to step down. However, the deal does not restore the constitutional president, whose term was due to end later this year. Instead, it would install the head of the national assembly as interim president.

The media seem generally to be treating this as a return to constitutional order (e.g. The Guardian, AP). And ECOWAS will lift sanctions. But it looks to me more like a codification of the coup. No, there will not be a long-term military government, and maybe the elections due for this spring will go ahead. However, the presidency was not validly vacated–even if the deposed president did submit his resignation as part of the agreement.

In the meantime, the north and east of the country has slipped out of the government’s control, so it is hard to see how those elections can go ahead in any case.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)

25 March 2012

Democracy in northwest Africa: Mali and Senegal

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Africa; Electing presidents; Senegal

Trouble is brewing in two (erstwhile) democratic states among the former French Soudan.

Mali experienced a military coup last week, apparently ending a 20-year experience of democracy–and just about a month before new presidential elections were due. There was no sign of the incumbent attempting to stay on for a third term (which would violate the current constitution). Meanwhile, today Senegal has its presidential runoff, and the incumbent is seeking a third term under dubious constitutionality.

These events are distressing because both countries had emerged recently as apparently functioning democracies. The Malian situation may be “collateral damage” from the NATO war in Libya. Touareg rebels, some of whom were among Qaddafi’s mercenaries, have been making gains in the country’s remote east. Evidently, at least part of the military was unsatisfied with the president’s handling of the internal war. Still, they might have waited to see what a newly elected president’s policy would be.

As for Senegal, President Abdoulaye Wade had overseen a constitutional change limiting the president to two terms. He is not the first president ever to make the claim that such a change does not apply to him, because his first term was before the constitution was changed. Most of the others have not gotten away with a third term, but this runoff is said to be close. He just might pull it off on election day, but at what cost to the country’s democracy?

Various news reports have suggested that Wade enters the runoff in a weak position, having won just under 35% of the vote in the first round. Supposedly the other candidates are all endorsing his remaining opponent, former Prime Minister Macky Sall. I would not be so sure. Sall was more than 8 points behind in the first round, and if Wade vs. Opposition were the dominant cleavage, one might have expected the anti-Wade forces to have coordinated on fewer than thirteen (!) candidates, the top two of which managed to combine for less than 40% in the first round. Of course, given a two-round majority system, one need not expect a single opposition candidate, but such a high degree of fragmentation does not bode well–even assuming the election is completely fair. (See first-round results at Psephos.)

Anticipating fragmentation of his opposition, last year Wade attempted to lower the threshold for a first-round victory to 25%.

Mali has a premier-presidential system; Senegal is president-parliamentary. If Mali’s democracy is not quickly restored, then it will no longer be true–as stated by Samuels and Shugart (2010, p.260)–that no premier-presidential system has ever broken down once meeting the thresholds for democracy that the authors established for inclusion of cases in our study.

_____
Postscript

Among my cherished cartographic possessions is a National Geographic map of Africa from around 1960 that shows these two countries as one, in the Mali Federation. The federation did not last, and the unit initially called Soudan split and became the independent state of Mali.

This map also showed a Union of Central African Republics (French Congo, Chad, and in between them, Ubangi-Shari, later the Central African Republic (singular)). This “union” was even shorter lived.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (9)

21 February 2012

Egyptian court: Electoral system unconstitutional

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Egypt; ELECTORAL SYSTEMS & REFORM; Mixed-member

This seems like a significant development:

Judge Magdy el-Agaty of the High Administrative Court said the elaborate system that apportioned seats among individuals and political parties violated the constitution. He referred parts of the election law to the Supreme Constitutional Court for a final judgement…

The parliamentary election… was held under an elaborate system under which a third of seats were allocated to individuals and two thirds to political parties.

Agaty said this ratio violated the constitution and half of seats should have been reserved for individuals. He also said parties should not have been permitted to field candidates for the seats reserved for individuals.

“The court views that allowing political parties to run for independent seats violates the principles of constitutional equality and has doubtful constitutionality,” Agaty said in the ruling, which was handed down Monday and released Tuesday.

Excerpted from Reuters.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (5)

19 December 2011

Egyptian ballots

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Egypt; Mixed-member; VOTES

The Arabist has images of the separate ballots for candidates and for party lists that are being used in Egypt’s election.

The examples shown offer 122 candidates (for two seats), but a mere 16 parties.

________

Thanks to Matt Singer for the tip.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)

18 December 2011

Poor representation in Egypt

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Egypt; VOTES

Commenting on the preliminary results of the first stage of the Egyptian elections, Samuel Tadros on 6 December noted that representation of the Christian minority is likely to be well below their share of the population.

Only four Christians won seats through the party-list system and three have reached the runoff stage on the individual seats. This number is not likely to increase dramatically in the next two stages, as the next two stages are taking place in governates with fewer Christian votes and candidates. The overall parliament will have fewer than ten Christians elected among its 498 members.

Women will also win few seats.

While the electoral system required parties to include a minimum of one woman in their lists, nearly all of them chose to put that women near the end of the list, and in the case of the Salafists, the very last name, ensuring they wouldn’t win.

Tadros also points to some important questions regarding runoffs in the two-seat districts. For instance,

What kind of coalitions will be built? In cases where a non-Islamist and a Salafist are running against two Muslim Brotherhood members, do they forge an alliance or are their ideological differences too deep to allow them from taking the right step electorally?

Best of, all, Tadros shows throughout the article that he knows the difference between a round and a stage.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)

16 December 2011

Stages and rounds

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Egypt; ELECTORAL SYSTEMS & REFORM

Press coverage of this week’s voting in Egypt has tended to refer to the events as the “second round” of voting.

This is misleading. The term to use when a country (or other jurisdiction) sees some districts vote on one date and others vote on a later date should be “stage” not “round”. The use of “stage” is standard in India, a country where both the federal and state electoral processes take place in different clusters of districts on different dates.

The terminology being widely used for Egypt is all the more confusing when each stage has two rounds! Many districts in Egypt will not have a winner in the initial count of votes, due to rules requiring a majority. There must be a runoff in such districts. This is the true meaning of “second round”.

One might expect that Indian journalists would get this right, but I heard the Indian co-host of BBC’s World Briefing the other day refer to “the second round of voting in Egypt”, notwithstanding that she was actually referring to the first round of the second stage. Soon we will have the second round of the second stage, to be followed by the first round of the third stage…

Really, is this so difficult to get straight?

Propagation: Seeds & scions (4)

06 December 2011

Egyptian election–a first look

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Egypt

Andy Reynolds offers a first look at the election in Egypt.

The electoral system used, plus the overall fragmentation, may be leading to significant over-representation of the Islamist parties. Further,

At this early stage it is possible to predict that once the election dust settles in January the Muslim Brotherhood’s FJP will win a comfortable parliamentary majority (perhaps 55-60% of the seats in the People’s Assembly) on approximately 40% of the popular vote… The ‘losers’ in the election system will clearly be the nascent liberal forces…

Andy also has an update on this first stage of voting, following the runoffs in the nominal-tier seats.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)

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