Fruits and Votes » Weather

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Weather

After a summer of mostly monochromatic skies–either whitish grey¹ or blue²–we finally have had some southeastern (“monsson”) flow to make the skies a bit more interesting.

Look closely at that last one and you will see the almost half-moon, on this 7th day of Av–chadeish yameinu kekedem.
___

The pattern known officially by the Ladera Frutal Weather Service as “marine crap” has been unusually persistent through July, despite notably less of our usual May greyt and June gloom in the preceding months. [↩]
Monochrome may be sort of boring, but when it’s blue, I will take it! [↩]

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15 February 2008

Just plain crazy

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Planted in: Weather

So, what was it I was saying about evidence of spring? So, on the 14th of February, the temperature was below 45 almost all day long. That is unheard of in these parts! And for the period from sundown on the 13th till sundown on the 14th, the high was reached overnight, while the low (41) was reached around 1:00 p.m. Weird. And it was raining most of the morning and early afternoon while the temperature was in the low 40s. It is never that cold here when it is raining.

No wonder the forecasters did not see this coming. No model could predict something so out of all normal weather patterns!

Local snow levels around 1500 feet, and quite cold (freezing?) temperatures expected tonight.

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14 February 2008

An inexact science

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Planted in: Weather

So, after barely running the irrigation since November, yesterday it seemed time to put some of that expensive municipal water on the groves. No rain was in the forecast, a once promising trough of low pressure for 14 February having changed trajectory and expected to go east of us. Drying winds and continued warmth were in the forecast, after a week of temperatures in the 70s and even over 80. Yes, clearly time to irrigate…

Today it is raining. The temperature has not broken above 47 since about 8:00 this morning. Up to a half inch is expected.

Sometimes the forecasters just get it wrong. Not very often, actually. And a forecast for no rain followed immediately by a day of rain is really rare here.

To their credit, the forecasters keep up links to several forecasts–and the accompanying discussions, where they indicate the models they are using and any doubts–in addition to the current one. And not until about 5:00 this morning was there even any mention of a slight chance of rain. Even at 5:00, the rain chance for the day was given as 30%. It started raining around 7:00, and a forecast issued about the time it started to rain actually downgraded the chance from 60% to 50%. Oops!

By 8:55 a.m. the discussion noted:

NWS DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE CWA [forecast areas] THIS MORNING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS REPORTED IN THE MOUNTAINS…EXTENDING TO SOME
AREAS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE DUE TO LOW WET BULB TEMPERATURES.
DARKENING IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH DROPPING S THROUGH CA THIS MORNING…

EXPECT VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DRAW COLD UPPER LOW TO THE
SW…OVER SOCAL BY LATE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
AND CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS…

(No, I have idea what “low wet bulb temperatures” are, but I like the way it sounds.)_

Forecasting is an inexact science. And so is knowing when to irrigate. No doubt, had I not turned on the irrigation, it would not have rained.

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09 December 2007

From the top of the finca

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Planted in: Around the finca; Weather

The snowfall got pretty low overnight. I can’t remember the last time I saw snow this low.

This view is from the highest point of the finca, just past the final stop on the Ladera Frutal Incline Railway. The view is to the northeast, towards the Palomar Divide. In the foreground are the massive avocado groves on the other side a narrow canyon, and just west of Interstate 15.

These mountains are about 15 miles away, though on a clear day like today, the sure look closer. Parts of the lower elevations on this snow-dusted ridge burned in the Poomacha Fire during the wildfires of late October.

Update: Next time the ridge was visible, on 15 December, the snow appeared to be gone already. That did not take long.

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03 December 2007

Sunsets before the storm

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Planted in: Weather

As I mentioned in regards to Friday’s storm, the cutoff low that produced the rains drifted off the Baja coast for a few days and brought us some very interesting clouds–teasing us with what might be coming.

And interesting clouds mean nice sunsets.

For instance, Tuesday night’s.

It was all the more remarkable in that this band of clouds was the only part of the entire sky that was not clear at the time.

Thursday’s was not too shabby, either.

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02 December 2007

The next storm

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Planted in: Weather

Wow, this sounds impressive (despite the caveat at the end).

In a winter forecast to be drier and warmer than normal due to the moderate, but strengthening, La NiÃ±a, we need all we can get when we can get it. And a “classic Pacific storm” spinning off a low over Kamchatka would be most welcome.

Quotation from forecast discussion relegated to inside branch. (more…)

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30 November 2007

Let it pour

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Planted in: Weather

I do not remember when I have awakened to be more thrilled at the sounds of the morning. It is raining. Seriously raining. Already about .40 inch as of 7:50 this morning.

I know there are parts of the County–recently burned areas–that will suffer from heavy rain. But we need it badly, for the fruit trees, for reducing the fire risk (even for a little bit), and, yes, for our souls. What a beautiful, calming sound! I had almost forgotten what it was like. The last significant rain was many months ago.

This is one of those cutoff lows (weatherman’s woes). It has drifted for days off the coast of northern Baja and given us interesting high clouds and gorgeous sunsets (I may post a photo or two later)–and given the forecasters challenges in predicting where it would wind up. Well, now we know. Right here! And we are under a flash-flood watch till Saturday afternoon.

Let it pour (but not too hard).

__________
This morning’s forecast discussion appears to downplay, in advance, what has in fact materialized. And no, I really do not understand all this jargon, but it sure sounds good:

BELIEVE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO CONFLICTING JET STREAMS AS THE TWO SYSTEMS COLLIDE. THERE IS NEVER CONSISTENT JET DYNAMICS TO GET MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO LIFT SUBSTANTIALLY. HOWEVER… QPF SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING WHEN THE SYSTEMS PHASE…WHICH WILL ALLOW BAROCLINICITY TO PRODUCE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS.

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30 October 2007

100,000

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Planted in: Blogging; Weather

Some time in the next few hours (it is now 3:40 p.m., local time), the 100,000th visitor will have been to the virtual orchard, according to Sitemeter.

Congratulations to whoever you are. Not that there is much reward, but someone has to be the one who turns the counter to such a nice round number. If no. 100,000 is ever at the real orchard, I will offer him or her some free fruits. (I have no votes to give away. I have done enough of that over the years: I used to vote for Democrats.)

Also an update on local conditions: Air much better today, Sky blue, other than a few high clouds. The air was still a little bluish this morning when there was fog. Breathing better, but still feeling the effects (including occasional rather violent coughing). Spent most of the day sweeping and dusting. Amazing that even indoors, in a building that was mostly closed up during the worst, there could be so much dust and fine ash from the fires.

Blogging activity will remain minimal while catching up on work and recovering from the physical and emotional stress of the preceding week.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (4)

23 October 2007

Low smoke

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Planted in: Weather; Wildfire & Earthquakes

11:30 a.m. and the smoke is really bad.

UCSD will be closed for a third day tomorrow. The campus had never been closed before the 2003 fire disaster, and now a second multi-day closure within a four year period. And the 4th anniversary of those fires is precisely this week.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)

Lull

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Planted in: Weather; Wildfire & Earthquakes

The good news is that the wind has died down. The bad news is that the wind has died down.

This is the view to the southeast (over the persimmons) to the southeast at about 7:40 this morning.¹

That’s not fog. That’s smoke. Bad day if you need to breathe.

When the winds were blowing, we were a rare island of blue sky in a day of fires raging to our north, south, and southeast. Once the winds stopped, the smoke settled in. This is less fog-like than it was in 2003, when for much of the first day after the wind settled, we could not see across the canyon. (As I am typing this, however, the visibility is getting worse.)

With winds blowing up till very early morning, it was warm overnight. It was 72 at midnight, and the humidity was only 11%. As the winds calmed down, the temperature dropped, but the humidity was still only 25% at its highest. Temp dropped only to 63 up the hill, but all the way to 55 down below.² That temperature range shows the impact of slope, calmness, and dryness that normally (i.e. other than the freeze of January, 2007) means no freeze up above despite winter chill down below.

I do not think we are out of fire danger yet, but the risk has lessened a lot. The most active part of the fire at Fallbrook is the northwest side, where there is a lot of open land. Apparently there remains some theat to downtown Fallbrook from this fire. Major threats remain to populated areas farther south, even all the way to the coast. The region remains under a red-flag warning, which has been extended until Wednesday afternoon. Winds forecast to pick up again briefly, temperatures could approach 100 today (though the smoke clouds could prevent that much heating) and very low humidity will persist.

A few other photos…

Ash-dusted car this morning (all packed and ready to take us away).

The view to the west/northwest at about 3:30 yesterday afternoon: smoke from the fire near Fallbrook.

View yesterday at about 5:20, looking east/southeast from just outside the house. Smoke is visible above the ridges in the right of the photo, but it is very clear here, with the moon visible in a perfectly blue sky.

Pardon the splotches; apparently I need to clean the lens. [↩]
Amazingly, NWS reports that several areas to our east and southeast had temperatures around 80 at 7:00 a.m.! [↩]

Propagation: Seeds & scions (3)

22 October 2007

Fires in San Diego again

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Planted in: Weather; Wildfire & Earthquakes

This is the view to the southeast from the finca at around 6:30 this morning, right before sunrise.

For now, the finca should be safe. The winds are blowing out of the northeast, so the danger areas are south and southwest of us. But there are reports of other, smaller fires to our northeast. Overnight humidity got only as high as 21% here, and it was as low as 6% yesterday afternoon. Expected to be lower today. And hotter both today and tomorrow–could reach 100 tomorrow. Ridiculous for October. And very dangerous.

This is too much like 2003 again. Very worrisome. Large areas of the northern San Diego suburbs are being evacuated.

Any of my students reading this who have not seen the intranet announcement: No class today.

Update (10:53 a.m.): Still OK here at Ladera Frutal, but getting essential items together, just in case. The humidity is down to 7% and falling. 84 degrees. No wind here now, which is good. Reports indicate high winds elsewhere in the region.

County emergency officials say this is much worse than the Cedar Fire of 2003. Hard to imagine. They also say the fire currently burning from east of Ramona west to Rancho Santa Fe is highly likely to reach the coast before it burns out. That would sever the transportation links between here and the city.

Update (1:18 p.m.): Now the winds are getting stronger (up to 16 MPH, much less than many other areas). Temp 87, humidity 5%. Evacuation underway in eastern Fallbrook, about 3 miles from here. Still no immediate risk here, but with the wind…

UCSD has canceled classes for Tuesday.

Update (3:44 p.m.): Now, apparently all of Fallbrook is being evacuated. That is only a few miles north, but we are currently out of the wind-driven path of the smoke (and thus the fire). No advisories have been issued here. I can see smoke to the northwest (from the fire in eastern Fallbrook, the location of which is more or less due north.) The wind has been up above 20 MPH, still far less than elsewhere, but threatening some trees and fruit. Still pure blue sky in our immediate area and about 85 degrees and humidity marginally up (6%). Ready to go, if necessary, but nothing imminent. Looks like a sleepless night or two ahead.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (5)

19 September 2007

Turning: One quarter, one week

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Planted in: FRUITS; Judaism; Sun & Moon; Weather

Yes, the Orchardist is mooning his readers yet again. But fortunately for all of you, it’s just another moon shot. With the trusty digital camera, that is.

I like the way the moon, as viewed in the photo, is pretty much exactly at its first quarter¹ and visible well before sundown, at which point the Hebrew calendar date will be 8 Tishri, indicating that the first week of the year’s first month has passed. And I like the way it appears just above a cloud. Today was the first day in a while at Ladera Frutal with significant clouds, not counting that weird tropical stuff earlier in the month (the Gregorian month of September, that is).

It felt like fall, and, of course, this ~~Friday~~ Sunday morning is the first day of fall.² Today was also the first day since 11 June that the high temperature (71) was below 75. And while the cloud cover kept the overnight low in the 60s, the glorious clear morning of Shabbat Shuvah had a low of 52, also the lowest since early June. Yes, I do believe we are turning towards fall; there is even the beginning of leaves turning in the corralito.³

I find it interesting how the trees do not quite know how to cope this time of year. Their older leaves are turning color or even falling already. But the trees are still putting out new leaves, just in case it’s not really time to rest yet.

The next quarter of the moon will mark the beginning of Sukkot, the season of our joy for the harvest. I just love how the Jewish calendar connects the moon to the seasons, and thus to the cycles of agriculture. Rabbi Jill Hammer sums it up well, and includes a reason for why Sukkot should be (and perhaps actually was at one time) the New Year rather than Rosh ha-Shanah. So, here’s another Shanah Tovah to all F&V readers, on this “pivot” day, halfway between Rosh ha-Shanah and Sukkot!

The precise first quarter (i.e. the half moon) actually was at 9:48 this morning, well past the previous night’s moonset. [↩]
Not to forget my southern hemisphere readers, I am of course speaking from my northern-hemispherist point of view. Originally I thought the equinox was 21 September, but it was actually 23 September, 0951 UTC. [↩]
And on the morning of 21 September the low temperature was actually 44 at the corralito! [↩]

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05 September 2007

Active

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Planted in: Weather; Wildfire & Earthquakes

This morning marked the third day in a row that we felt and/or heard an earthquake here at Ladera Frutal. All pretty small (M 3.4 to 4.7¹ ), but all sufficient to get one’s attention.

A bit farther south, if you compare the archive of Hurricane Henrietta‘s locations with the earthquake epicenter reports, you see that the southern tip of Baja received a 5.0 jolt just as it was being raked by hurricane winds.

Meanwhile, recent hurricane convergences are record-setters. Today is only the second time on record² that the Americas are receiving a hurricane on both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts in the same 24-hour period. The one on the other side, is, of course, far bigger. Felix is now a tropical depression, dumping rain on Central America, but came ashore as a Category 5. This is the first time two Category 5 storms have hit the Caribbean region in the same season, following Dean just over two weeks ago. Felix has already broken an “unofficial record” as the “most explosive” hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin, surpassing Wilma, in October, 2005.

Update: That first link will always show the most recent earthquakes in the area, so those referred to above will fall off the page after a bit. However, a check today–9 Sept.–shows yet another 4.0 off the northern San Diego County coast last night. (There was also a 3.7 off La Jolla this morning). This last couple of weeks has represented the greatest flurry of (small) earthquake activity I can remember in the area in quite some time.

There is also a 3.1 in that list, but I do not recall noticing it; it was also the farthest away of these four. [↩]
Apparently, Pacific records are only since 1949, though the Atlantic record referred to in this entry covers a 130-year period. [↩]

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02 September 2007

100 and cloudy

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Planted in: Weather

A couple of weeks ago I remarked how weird it was, around these parts, that it was 91 degrees (on the quaint Fahrenheit scale we use for old-times sake) and cloudy.

Well, how about 100 and cloudy? ~~Two~~ Three days in a row.

You can’t tell me the climate is not changing. I don’t ever recall summer heat and clouds going together west of the mountains in southern California, until recent years.

And then there is this oddity: Storm washes out Storm.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (3)

28 August 2007

Distant clouds

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Planted in: Weather

With a heat wave having kicked up–especially out over the desert–but some of that moisture from Dean still hanging around, we’ve got some nice clouds billowing up east of the finca.

I still can’t believe the rain the region received. In August. From an Atlantic storm.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)

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