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Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

Perspectives on electoral systems, constitutional design, and policy around the world, based primarily on my research interests.

Also experiences with growing many varieties of fruit (always organic) and other personal interests. Please see the Mission Statement for more. (There is also an explanation of the banner.)

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  • 18 September 2006

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Baltoscandia; VOTES

    Over the weekend, Sweden gave us yet another in a rather incredible series of very close elections in that past year (-plus) of F&V. But this one was almost a landslide compared to recent elections in Norway, the Czech Republic, Germany, New Zealand, Mexico, etc…

    The major parties in Sweden are grouped into two blocs, and the right-wing bloc (including the Moderate, Liberal People’s, Centre, and Christian Democratic parties) combined for 50.0% of the vote, while the incumbent left-wing bloc (including the Social Democratic, Green, and Left parties) won 48%. In seats, the right will have 178 to the left’s 171.

    The Social Democrats won the most votes (35.2% to the Moderates’ 26.1%), but lack any means to form a government against the combined strength of the right. A scandal earlier this year had been expected to help save the left from defeat. The EU observer describes the scandal:

    Previously enjoying a reputation for being squeaky clean, the country’s pending elections hit the headlines in newspapers around Europe when it emerged that members of the liberal party had hacked their way into the ruling social democratic party’s computer network.

    The scandal was dubbed “Sweden’s Watergate,” although the label is misleading. The hacking was by the opposition, whereas in the real Watergate, the bugging was by the government, (ab)using government institutions and personnel. That’s quite a difference. But the more important difference is that, given a PR system, voters wanting to punish the offending party did not have to cross over to the other side of the spectrum. And, in the end, the scandal probably redistributed voters among the right, rather than from right to left, costing the Liberals to the benefit of their partners.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    17 September 2005

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Baltoscandia; VOTES

    Coug at Eurotrib does the heavy lifting here, with a report on the winning parties’ having agreed to disagree on the EU, NATO, and expanded oil drilling.

    The post notes that Labor has never been in coalition before (either having had a majority of seats on its own, or having formed a single-party minority cabinet) and the Socialist Left has never been in government at all.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    12 September 2005

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Baltoscandia; VOTES

    Although I somehow left it off my list of elections in September, today Norwegians voted in general elections. The count went back and forth after the polls closed, but the incumbent conservative prime minister, Kjell Magne Bondevik has conceded defeat.

    Norway’s new government will be a coalition of the Labor, Socialist Left, and Center parties. These three parties campaigned together. They combined to win a majority of the seats in parliament. For decades, most of Norway’s governments have been minority cabinets (often of the Labor party). This was the first time the various left parties had campaigned as a team.

    The victorious parties campaigned against the upper-bracket tax cuts implemented by the incumbent government and in favor of increased spending of Norway’s considerable oil revenue on education, health and welfare.

    The parties disagree on foreign policy, however, and so it will be interesting to see how they govern in this area. The Socialist Left is on record as opposing Norway’s membership in NATO. It is also opposed to joining the EU. Norwegian voters have twice rejected EU membership in nationwide referenda. The issue is expected to come up again soon. There is not much evidence that the public mood would be any more favorable now, however.

    Turnout was 76% of eligible voters.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


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    FRUIT FEEDS
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    Recent comments.

  • BC election 2013 (8)
    • Chris: The federal Liberal party hate the Conservatives more than they hate the NDP. They think Trudeau fil will get them a majority government,...
    • Ed: Its been explained to me that BC politics seems complicated, but is actually pretty simple: everyone gangs up against the NDP, but the...
    • MSS: I am struck by the degree of malapportionmen t in BC. For instance, the Peace River South winner’s 46.4% was only 3,904 votes, whereas...
    • MSS: The Green Party won the Oak Bay-Gordon Head seat, with 40.1%. It was not close, with incumbent Liberal Ida Chong having only 29.7% and the NDP...
    • MSS: I guess this is why they still have actual elections with actual voters casting actual ballots! How could the pollsters be so wrong?
    • Vasi: Well that was surprising! Once again, the polls in a Canadian election were off, and the incumbents do much better than expected.
    • Tom Round: BC: where a 39% sub-plurality is enough to elect a government for five years (absolute majority of seats, no upper house) but a 57%...
    • JD: Oh, how different (and more interesting) things would have been had STV been approved…
  • Does STV have anything to do with absence of “free votes” in Ireland? (10)
    • JD: Tom, I’m not sure I understand why primaries the secret ballot. Alan, how is that different from a (closed) primary?
    • Alan: I’m not a fan of primaries, for the reasons Tom states. I am a fan of requiring parties to nominate candidates by a ballot of all party...
    • Tom Round: It would indeed be ironic if one reason discouraging parties from allowing free votes was an electoral system that could enable voters...
    • MSS: And, yes, the larger irish parties do publish recommended rankings, and rotate them in different areas of the constituency. (The small parties...
    • MSS: Very interesting on Japan. Doug, yes, of course it depends on party organization and, in particular, how they select candidates and run...
  • Final MMP Review report is out (11)
    • Suaprazzodi: Perhaps they should put the amended version of MMP to a referendum. They should ask questions like do you want the list percentage...
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