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Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

Perspectives on electoral systems, constitutional design, and policy around the world, based primarily on my research interests.

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  • 30 November 2010

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: wide open spaces

    I was looking up the work of Nobuhiro Hiwatari in the library catalog search function. It asked me “Did you mean Thwarter Snowbush?”

    I suppose I could have meant that. But I did not.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)


    28 November 2010

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Electing presidents; Iraq

    In a post I had missed till now, Reidar Visser makes clear that the Iraqi electoral system used for the general elections earlier this year was indeed open list. The key point is in bold (my emphasis):

    It cannot be stressed too much that the Iraqi electoral system is a hybrid of a closed list system and an open-list system. The method for counting the votes was left unspecified in the amended electoral law last autumn, and in its regulation on the subject, the election commission (IHEC) opted for a quite radical approach as far as the weight of open-list (tick an individual on the list) versus closed-list usage (no preference expressed) of the ballot was concerned: The final ordering of the candidates is decided only by the number of personal votes obtained, with no regard to original position on the list. In democratic theory, this could be said to be somewhat problematic, since one might well argue that a list vote with no candidate preferences indicated is not only a vote for the political entity in question, but also for the particular ordering of candidates on the list, as per the preset ranking decided by the leadership. (If the order on the list counted for nothing, the candidates might as well have been listed alphabetically, or according to age, or whatever.) Arguably, then, a more balanced approach to the hybrid of open and closed list would be to count each unmarked ballot as a vote for the top candidate on the list, transferring the vote to the next highest when the first has achieved the number required to win a seat and so on. This is of course all utterly academic as long as IHEC has ruled the way it has, but it does explain why well-organised radical challenges from below are quite easy under the Iraqi system (as seen first and foremost in the case of the Sadrists), and also why minor differences can have an enormous impact when the general number of personal votes is low, not least with respect to the women’s quota (where the struggle is often between candidates with votes in the 3-digit range).

    So, just after stressing that the list type is a “hybrid” he goes on to stress that it is in fact an open list. Not hybrid at all.

    The point he makes here about implications for “democratic theory” of an open list system in which a vote cast only for the list, without a candidate preference vote, is entirely valid. I have made the same point myself in published work. It is ambiguous, and perhaps unclear to many voters, what the meaning of a list vote without a preference vote is, when applied to the intra-party dimension of representation. Did the voter who abstained from participation in the ranking of candidates really mean to delegate the ranking decision to other voters, who did cast preference votes? Or did such a voter intend to accept the party leadership’s preferred ranking?

    Notwithstanding this theoretical ambiguity, there is nothing unusual about this in practice. Open-list systems, in which the preference vote is optional, and in which a list-only vote has no bearing on the order of candidates are found in Brazil, Peru, Switzerland, and formerly in Italy.

    Of course, a real hybrid of open and closed lists would be one in which a list vote counted for a pre-established party order, while a preference vote potentially counted for changing that order. These are usually termed “flexible” list systems (or sometimes “semi-open” or “semi-closed”), and are found in Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and some other countries.

    Other variants also exist: open lists in which the voter must cast a preference vote (Chile, Finland, Poland). There are even flexible lists where the voter must cast a preference vote notwithstanding that a pre-ordered party ranking usually prevails (e.g.Netherlands).

    The rest of Visser’s post offers some detail about the extent to which intra-party groups, such as the Sadrists,were successful in elevating their candidates via preference voting. In an earlier post, Visser had detailed “the Sadrist watershed.”

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    26 November 2010

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: AV/IRV; California

    Concurrent with the statewide general and national midterm elections earlier this month, the city of Oakland, California, elected its mayor. For the first time, the city used the Alternative Vote (instant runoff). The result was a bit of a surprise, in that longtime Democratic Party powerhouse Don Perata was expected to win. However, he lost to Jean Quan, who will be the city’s first woman and first Asian-American mayor.

    From the San Francisco Chronicle:

    When first-place votes were initially counted after the Nov. 2 election, Quan had just 24 percent, and Perata had 35 percent. But Quan proved to be a more popular second and third choice among supporters of the other eight candidates, and in the end, she had 51 percent to Perata’s 49 percent.

    This is, of course, exactly how the system is supposed to work: ensure the election of the majority-supported candidate in the event that the candidate with the most first-preference votes is short of 50%+1 of the total votes cast. But the Perata camp is not amused. His political consultant called ranked-choice voting “an injustice” and the result a “travesty” because his candidate won 78% of the precincts, and led by a margin of 10 percentage points.

    “In any other contest, it would be a landslide win, not an election loss.”

    Normally, even in the realm of first-past-the-post elections, we do not think of plurality candidates with 35% as landslide winners, but Perata himself said:

    “I don’t understand how ranked-choice voting works.”

    Obviously!

    Just as obviously, Quan did.

    Quan had been campaigning for months for people to vote for “anybody but Don.” She had told supporters to list City Councilwoman Rebecca Kaplan as their second choice.

    Kaplan, in turn, told her supporters and others to list Quan second or third.

    The strategy paid off for Quan when Kaplan, who finished third, was eliminated and her votes redistributed. Quan won 75 percent of them – pushing her from a 10,372-vote deficit to a 2,058-vote victory.

    Perata, the Chronicle notes, never told supporters whom they should list second or third. And, apparently, never appealed for any other candidates’ second choices. Stupid strategy, given the electoral system.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (8)


    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: AV/IRV; Ireland; STV

    Regarding the Donegal South-West by-election, thejournal.ie has this tidbit:

    Polling stations opened at 7am this [Thursday] morning and remain open until 10pm tonight – though voters on Donegal’s islands voted on Monday, as is traditional, to account for any difficulty in bringing the votes to land.

    The count begins at 9:00 a.m. Friday, Irish time.

    The Sinn Fein candidate, Pearse Doherty, is expected to win rather easily.

    A Red C poll commissioned by Paddy Power two weeks ago showed Doherty commanding a massive lead in the opinion polls, with 40% of respondents saying they were likely to give him their first preference vote, while another 17% said he would receive their second preference.

    The electoral system, of course, is single transferable vote. But this election is for one seat, which means the system reduces to the alternative vote, where the quota to win the seat is 50% + 1.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (2)


    25 November 2010

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: India

    Two parties of National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is India’s current national opposition, scored big in the Bihar legislative elections. Bihar is one of India’s poorest and most populous states.

    The NDA is the alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The combine of the BJP and its ally, the Janata Dal (United), won nearly 85% of the seats in the Bihar assembly. That is more than the Congress Party ever won back in the days when it was the dominant party.

    The current Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar, will be returned to power. This time, however, the BJP is a larger component of the alliance. The Congress Party, and its allies within the (national ruling) United Progressive Alliance, suffered electoral devastation.

    Chief minister Nitish Kumar’s ruling coalition won 206 seats in the 243-member assembly, the best-ever performance by any alliance or party in Bihar. The Janata Dal (United) improved its seat tally from 88 in 2005 to 115 in this election. Its ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s tally jumped from 55 in 2005 to 91 this election. [...]

    The biggest casualty of this change was Lalu Prasad and his Rashtriya Janata Dal [a UPA component], which returned a score that barely qualified it put up an opposition leader in the new assembly. The RJD and its alliance partner Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) won 25 seats, compared to 64 in last elections. [...]

    Despite the large crowds that Rahul Gandhi drew at every rally he addressed, the Congress party managed to win four seats, compared to nine in 2005. Independent candidates and other parties won eight seats, down from 27 in last elections. [HT]

    The election result has major implications for the future of the NDA-UPA competition, both nationally, and in other states. The UPA scored a large victory over the NDA in general elections in May, 2009. Now the Bihar victory shows a potential path back to power for the NDA, which governed India with a majority between 1999 and 2004: the BJP can win by putting its regional allies forward and downplaying its own radical Hindu nationalism.

    Both [BJP and JD(U)] realised their alliance was symbiotic in nature. The JD(U) needed the BJP for bringing the upper caste votes. The BJP had to ride on Kumar’s image for the pan-Bihari vote. [HT]

    The alliance managed to keep the Ayodhya issue quiet, averting a potential split in the electorate that might have threatened the allied parties’ ability to fish in different pools of voters within the state. The result this changes the political context, with its emphasis on development over the usual identity politics (although the just-linked item also sounds some notes of caution against over-interpreting the result in this way).

    Already, it is having ripple effects in two other states that will vote in 2011, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, where Congress or an ally had been expecting big gains. Some have even been moved to suggest Kumar could be a future PM candidate for the NDA.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Afghanistan; SNTV/ MNTV

    The results of September’s election for the Afghanistan legislature finally have been released. From the CSM:

    Early analyses of the final results show that the Hazara community may have snagged a share of the lower house that represents as much as double their actual proportion of the population.

    In Ghazni, the last remaining constituency to be counted, preliminary results indicated that all 11 seats went to Hazara candidates, even though the province has a slim majority of Pashtuns with significant Hazara and Tajik minorities. [...]

    Wardak province also saw a surge in Hazara representation. Though the region is predominately home to Pashtuns, three of the five seats went to Hazaras.

    The story emphasizes the impact of violence on the lack of ethnic proportionality: if turnout by Pashtuns was lower due to their regions being more violent, then other groups would be over-represented.

    While violence may well be the main factor, it is worth remembering that the electoral system is single nontransferable vote (SNTV), which is not a proportional system. If Pashtuns had their votes less efficiently distributed across their candidates than did other ethnic groups, for whatever reason, then the result could be disproportional regardless of turnout differentials.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Coalition governance; Iraq

    The constitutional process for forming a government in Iraq has now formally begun–more than eight months after the elections.

    Incumbent PM Nouri Maliki has been invited by President* Jalal Talabani to form a government. He now has a 30-day period in which to present a cabinet to parliament.

    _____
    * Or, more accurately, chairman of the three-person Presidency council. {See comments}

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (3)


    24 November 2010

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Coalition governance; U.K.

    The Liberal Democrats are under fire for breaking various campaign commitments since joining the coalition with the Conservatives. This has put pressure on the party to begin putting greater emphasis on the “policy victories” it is achieving.

    So, which is more relevant for judging a party’s record? The campaign or the coalition agreement? The latter, according to Business Secretary and LibDem Vince Cable, who argues that pre-election pledges are trumped by the coalition agreement which is “binding upon us.”

    As a practical matter, that has to be correct. Besides, it is not as though the party would have a better record of fulfilling pledges had it remained in opposition.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (2)


    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Coalition governance; U.K.

    The Liberal Democrats have been seeking advice on how to cope with their new partnership from some former party leaders on the continent. A former Democrats 66 leader from the Netherlands, Lousewies van der Laan, gave them the following analogies, according to The Independent:

    Marriage of convenience with pre-nup
    * Don’t mortgage the marriage with negative party resolutions at the start.
    * Achieve at least some of your programme; save the rest for the next coalition (or absolute power).

    The honeymoon: how to set up house, and the first common projects
    * Do let each other shine – grant each his moment of glory.
    * Presentation is part of the equation, but mutual trust and atmosphere should be the determining factors.
    * Don’t hang out your dirty linen, and don’t gloat when the others stumble.
    * Don’t begrudge the other-half’s victories.
    * Don’t (publicly) ask for compensation when you don’t get your own way.

    The irritation of living together
    * Keep the other party on board.
    * Stay relaxed, even with bad opinion polls – it’s all par for the course.
    * Don’t try to raise your profile at the expense of your partner – it will lead to exclusion from real decision-making.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    23 November 2010

    New Zealand’s Electoral Referendum Bill now calls for a review of the current Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) system, if it wins a majority at the referendum next year, NZ Herald reports.

    If a majority vote to change MMP, the current system would be pitted against the most popular of various alternatives that will also be on the ballot at the referendum.

    Labour and the Greens have pledged to fight to have MMP reviewed regardless of the referendum result, which would mean that a referendum in 2014 would pit a potentially improved MMP – rather than the present system – against an alternative.

    Of course, Labour and Greens are the opposition parties, so apparently they are going to lose that battle.

    Topics of review, should MMP be retained, would include the threshold. Currently it is 5% of the party-list vote or one district win. In the last election, the New Zealand First party won 4.1% of the list votes but no seats, while the Act Party won 3.7% of the list votes and 5 seats, thanks to winning in the district of Epsom.

    Also to be reviewed would be the question of whether a member who is defeated in a district race should be able to win via the party list, as is currently the case–not only in NZ, but in almost all mixed-member systems. (This is an issue we have discussed at F&V before; I argue that allowing such dual candidacy is a logically necessary feature of the system, but there are ways to make it less troublesome for those who find it to be a problem.)

    I have to correct the NZ Herald a bit. It notes that one of the alternative systems to be considered is a “Supplementary Member” system, which would have a 90/30 split of members elected from the two tiers: districts with first-past-the-post and PR via party lists. “This would be less proportional than MMP, which has a 70/50 split,” the article says. Indeed, but the more fundamental reason for reduced proportionality is that the list seats would not be compensatory, as they are in MMP. The Supplementary Member is MMM, or mixed-member majoritarian (also known as a “parallel” system), which is less proportional–far less–then MMP, even for a constant ratio of plurality and PR seats.

    The article also notes that there will be campaign spending limits on the referendum.

    ADDENDUM: Wilf notes in a comment an important detail left out by the Herald. The review will include a consideration of open (or perhaps ‘flexible’) lists. That’s a pretty big change to result potentially from a “YES” vote on the current system!

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (43)


    22 November 2010

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Coalition governance; Green parties; Ireland

    Irish Taoiseach (PM) Brian Cowen has announced that parliament will be dissolved following the passage of the upcoming austerity budget necessitated by the current financial crisis. The move became inevitable once the Green Party, coalition partners to Cowen’s Fianna Fail, demanded early elections. Cowen is also facing calls for his resignation from backbenchers of his own party.

    Passing that budget will not be easy. In addition to the Green Party, the government also relies on several independent members, some of whom have said they may not vote for it. Just to complicate things yet further, the government is facing a by-election in a seat in Donegal South West.

    ADDENDUM: The By-election is likely to be won by Sinn Fein, and it could be their best electoral showing ever.

    And a recent poll of national voting intentions has Fianna Fail about as low as it has ever been, while Fine Gael and Labour are running higher than they have scored at just about any election. The Greens might fail to win a seat, and Sinn Fein is doing better than usual. The financial crisis might lead to quite a political shake-up.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)


    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Israel; Referenda

    Under a bill passed into law today, any future agreement by an Israeli government to transfer territory to another state would be subject to a referendum. The law applies to the Golan Heights and those parts of Jerusalem that are over the Green Line that divided the city between 1948 and 1967. It does not apply to Judea and Samaria/West Bank (because the latter has never been designated as territory of the State of Israel).

    Israel has no tradition of national referenda, so quite apart from the consequences this law may have for potential peace agreements, it represents a significant departure from the pure form of parliamentary sovereignty that has prevailed up to now.

    ADDENDUM: A transfer of territory would require a majority in a national referendum or 80 votes in the Knesset (a two-thirds majority), according to IBA.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    19 November 2010

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: 2008; 2010; US House; USA

    Just poking around a bit further in the Electoral Separation of Purpose data, as pictured and explained previously.

    I wondered who the “ESP Champs” were of these cycles.

    For 2008, I hereby crown Gene Taylor of Mississippi, who won 74.5% in his district on the same day that Obama managed 31.7%. Now that’s separation of purpose!

    He still managed 47% even in 2010. Not bad, but not good enough.

    In fact, that 2010 result makes Taylor one of only four Democrats to have won, at the midterm, more than 45% of the vote in a district in which Obama had won under 35%. But to be crowned champion for 2010, you should actually have won your race. So the 2010 title belongs to…

    Dan Boren of Oklahoma, who won 56.5% in a district in which Obama had won 34.5%. This result still represented a massive adverse swing against Boren, who had 70.5% in 2008. But he held on.

    Boren and Taylor, by the way, are both Blue Dogs.

    With ESP numbers like these, we can see why some “blue” congressmen in deeply “red” districts were less than keen these past two years in coming to the support of Obama’s policy priorities. (This was a topic that generated considerable discussion in another thread earlier this month.)

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)


    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: ELECTORAL SYSTEMS & REFORM; Japan; Judiciary

    A ruling by the Tokyo High Court may lead to reform of the electoral system for the Japanese House of Councilors, the second chamber of the Diet.

    On the other hand, the Court can’t seem to make up its mind just how troublesome malapportionment is, or how much is too much. Manichi Daily News has some details.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (2)


    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: The Ballyard

    The writers got it right.

    Weaver’s fifth-place finish is too low, but the only one that matters is no. 1, and the writers were not swayed by 13-12. That someone with such a poor record, through so little fault of his own, would win the Cy shows that the sabermetric revolution has had considerable success.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


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