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Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

Perspectives on electoral systems, constitutional design, and policy around the world, based primarily on my research interests.

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  • 03 December 2010

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Central America & Caribbean

    At the time of the Honduran coup, there were those who tried to defend it as a legitimate act. And not all of those defenders were in the Honduran military or political elite. Here is what the State Department was saying at the time, under a heading “Arguments of the Coup Defenders“:

    ¶3. (SBU)Defenders of the June 28 coup have offered some combination of the following, often ambiguous, arguments to assert it’s legality:

    – Zelaya had broken the law (alleged but not proven);

    – Zelaya resigned (a clear fabrication);

    – Zelaya intended to extend his term in office (supposition);

    – Had he been allowed to proceed with his June 28 constitutional reform opinion poll, Zelaya would have dissolved Congress the following day and convened a constituent assembly (supposition);

    – Zelaya had to be removed from the country to prevent a bloodbath;

    – Congress “unanimously” (or in some versions by a 123-5 vote) deposed Zelaya; (after the fact and under the cloak of secrecy); and

    – Zelaya “automatically” ceased to be president the moment he suggested modifying the constitutional prohibition on presidential reelection.

    ¶4. (C) In our view, none of the above arguments has any substantive validity under the Honduran constitution. Some are outright false. Others are mere supposition or ex-post
    rationalizations of a patently illegal act. Essentially:

    – the military had no authority to remove Zelaya from the country;

    – Congress has no constitutional authority to remove a Honduran president;

    – Congress and the judiciary removed Zelaya on the basis of a hasty, ad-hoc, extralegal, secret, 48-hour process;

    – the purported “resignation” letter was a fabrication and was not even the basis for Congress’s action of June 28; and

    – Zelaya’s arrest and forced removal from the country violated multiple constitutional guarantees, including the prohibition on expatriation, presumption of innocence and right to due process.

    The cable then goes on to review the Honduran constitution in some detail, concluding that there is no impeachment provision, and that “Forced Removal by Military was Clearly Illegal” and “Congress Had no Authority to Remove Zelaya.” Each of those quoted passages is another subheading in the cable, which is followed by further detailed arguments.

    All in all, a fairly impressive bit of reporting and political analysis. Now, what politicians and political appointees in Washington choose to do with such clear and objective information is another matter.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (6)


    02 December 2010

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Ireland

    Recommended.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Iraq; Party lists

    The following excerpt from one of the State Department cables in the Iraqi election of 2010 is interesting for its discussion of list type.

    It is important to note that Iran’s power in Iraq, although extensive, is not without limitations. The IRIG’s greatest political roadblock remains the domineering authority and religious credibility embodied in Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Despite his Iranian heritage, Sistani is Iraq’s most revered Shia religious (and political) authority. A critic of Iran’s “Velayet-e-Faqih” (rule of the jurisprudent) system of theocratic governance, Sistani’s abstemious (aka Quietest school) approach to Shia politics has kept him well above the political fray while at the same time ensuring him significant impact on those rare occasions when he pronounces on politics. For example, Sistani’s public support for an open list ballot was instrumental in prompting ISCI, Sadrist Trend, Maliki’s State of Law, and other Shia parties to follow suit, despite Tehran’s preference for a closed list. Domestic political realities will continue to force Shia political parties like ISCI, Dawa Qwill continue to force Shia political parties like ISCI, Dawa and Sadr Trend, with close historic ties to Iran, to balance between support for a broader Iraqi-Shia agenda, as championed by Sistani, and the alternative, championed by Iran, that would subordinate Iraqi interests to Iran’s broader objectives (septel).

    Via Wikileaks. Emphasis added.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    01 December 2010

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Judaism

    May we rededicate ourselves to bringing light into the dark places. Happy Chanukah for this year 5771.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


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    Recent comments.

  • BC election 2013 (8)
    • Chris: The federal Liberal party hate the Conservatives more than they hate the NDP. They think Trudeau fil will get them a majority government,...
    • Ed: Its been explained to me that BC politics seems complicated, but is actually pretty simple: everyone gangs up against the NDP, but the...
    • MSS: I am struck by the degree of malapportionmen t in BC. For instance, the Peace River South winner’s 46.4% was only 3,904 votes, whereas...
    • MSS: The Green Party won the Oak Bay-Gordon Head seat, with 40.1%. It was not close, with incumbent Liberal Ida Chong having only 29.7% and the NDP...
    • MSS: I guess this is why they still have actual elections with actual voters casting actual ballots! How could the pollsters be so wrong?
    • Vasi: Well that was surprising! Once again, the polls in a Canadian election were off, and the incumbents do much better than expected.
    • Tom Round: BC: where a 39% sub-plurality is enough to elect a government for five years (absolute majority of seats, no upper house) but a 57%...
    • JD: Oh, how different (and more interesting) things would have been had STV been approved…
  • Does STV have anything to do with absence of “free votes” in Ireland? (10)
    • JD: Tom, I’m not sure I understand why primaries the secret ballot. Alan, how is that different from a (closed) primary?
    • Alan: I’m not a fan of primaries, for the reasons Tom states. I am a fan of requiring parties to nominate candidates by a ballot of all party...
    • Tom Round: It would indeed be ironic if one reason discouraging parties from allowing free votes was an electoral system that could enable voters...
    • MSS: And, yes, the larger irish parties do publish recommended rankings, and rotate them in different areas of the constituency. (The small parties...
    • MSS: Very interesting on Japan. Doug, yes, of course it depends on party organization and, in particular, how they select candidates and run...
  • Final MMP Review report is out (11)
    • Suaprazzodi: Perhaps they should put the amended version of MMP to a referendum. They should ask questions like do you want the list percentage...
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