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Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

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  • 02 February 2011

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Canada

    Writing in The Globe and Mail, Bob Plamondon suggests that Canadian PM Stephen Harper might regret his regular warnings to voters that the opposition parties might gang up on his Conservative Party and form a coalition. Harper has been hammering this theme ever since the aborted coalition proposal that emerged just after the 2008 election.

    Polls continue to show that the Conservatives enjoy a lead, but likely not enough to win a parliamentary majority. An election is not certain this year, but there is much speculation that there could be one this spring. The budget will soon have to be approved in the Commons, and if the opposition parties are not satisfied with “sweeteners” in it, they could bring down the government. And, of course, if Harper wants an election, he can send them a budget they must refuse.

    Plamondon notes:

    in one of the most significant (and least noted) public opinion polls conducted since that election, EKOS Research Associates discovered earlier this month that many Canadians would be prepared to support a coalition were it to be on the ballot.

    Of course, such a pre-election coalition remains unlikely, but Plamondon asks:

    Would the prospect of losing their third election in a row cause Liberals to make common ground with the NDP, and possibly the Green Party? Is a Liberal-NDP coalition remotely possible?

    Remotely? Maybe.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)


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    Recent comments.

  • Is MMP in Ireland’s future? (12)
    • JD: Mark: If I’m not mistaken, neither Bolivia nor Lesotho (both MMP users) have thresholds.
    • Ed: I had a somewhat similar intellectual journey to Tom Round, in that MMP was beguiling at first until you got into the details. For me the deal...
    • Mark Roth: Just to be argumentative,a nd with no offense meant: 1) As far as I know, every system that uses MMP does have some sort of threshold in...
    • MSS: To be clear, no specific legal threshold, or any threshold at all, is a defining feature of MMP. Technically, neither are single-seat...
    • Tom Round: I’m not unfamiliar with the attraction of MMP. I felt it myself when I first started studying electoral systems. It retains...
    • Wilf Day: Ireland’s Constitutional Convention is a very interesting model of an electoral reform process. It includes 66 randomly selected...
  • Pakistan general election 2013 (2)
    • MSS: The bandwagoning is taking place now. “PML-N gets majority after 18 Independents join party” (20 May). “43 newly elected...
  • Do UK elections now allow fusion candidacies? (13)
    • Derek: I’d like to see the idea of equal preferences in a country like UK.
    • Tom Round: Chris @9: “but in not having an UKIP opponent to siphon votes from the right.” Good point. However, given voluntary voting...
    • MSS: UKIP did admit during the recent local election campaign that it did not fully vet its candidates, due to (it was claimed) resource...
    • Chris: UKIP’s candidates for Parliament and MEP do indeed seem to need National Executive Committee Approval before being placed on the...
    • Chris: I think the key thing in being a Conservative-UK IP candidate might not be in having both of their emblems, but in not having an UKIP...
    • MSS: Here is the text (see Jaffr’s link): After paragraph (2A) insert— “(2AA)If a candidate who is the subject of an authorisation by...
  • Distortions of the US House: It’s not how the districts are drawn, but that there are (single-seat) districts (30)
    • Ed: This is another article where the writer attempted to draw non-partisan districts, using a set of criteria an independent commission could...
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