THE CORE

Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

Perspectives on electoral systems, constitutional design, and policy around the world, based primarily on my research interests.

Also experiences with growing many varieties of fruit (always organic) and other personal interests. Please see the Mission Statement for more. (There is also an explanation of the banner.)

Other "planters" have been invited to contribute. Please check the "Planted by" line to see the author of the post you are reading.

Join the conversation. Comments are always open. Except, that is, when Word Press mysteriously shuts them down, which happens with distressing frequency.

Core principles:

Henry Droop on the "moderate non-partisan section"

Madison on "dangers from abroad" and "the fetters... on liberty"

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  • 28 September 2011

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Judaism

    The “current moon” says we have a waxing crescent, at a mere 3% full. And I have it on good authority that the autumnal equinox was just last week.

    All this suggests it is time to turn to a new year.1

    May our endeavors for 5772 bear fruit!

    1. Actually, that 3% and waxing suggests it should have been yesterday, but Jewish calendar rules prohibit Yom Kippur, which is the 10th day of the year, from being on Friday (or Sunday). So we need a little adjustment. See BZ for much, much more. []

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    25 September 2011

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Blogging

    Once again, the setting requiring users to be registered and logged in to comment was auto-checked over the weekend. I have no idea why this happens. I have manually unchecked it. Again.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (2)


    23 September 2011

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: FRUITS

    So, who can identify what this project in the orchard is all about?


    P1010001

    P1010004

    P1010008

    And, yes, we have had some interesting clouds these last two days. More:


    P1010007

    P1010009

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    20 September 2011

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Germany; POLITICAL PARTIES

    DW has an interview with Pirate Party leader Sebastian Nerz about his expectations for the party now that it has broken through in the Berlin legislature.

    Key quote:

    we’re not merely trying to push political issues, we want to change the way politics are shaped in Germany

    That’s a good summary of what Veronica Hoyo1 means by a radical party, as opposed to other types of outsiders.

    1. UCSD Ph.D. 2010; I was a co-chair of her dissertation committee. []

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    19 September 2011

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Egypt; ELECTORAL SYSTEMS & REFORM; Mixed-member

    Excerpts from a lengthy piece in Ahram on opposition parties’ discontent with the new Egyptian electoral system:

    Most political forces in Egypt have sharply criticised a draft law aimed at establishing a new distribution of electoral districts, agreeing that it would make it difficult for citizens to vote and for candidates to organise election campaigns.

    For both houses of the legislature–the Peoples Assembly and the Shura Council–the same basic system has been adopted. It is MMM, with two-seat districts in the nominal tier (referred to ” individual candidacy”) and districts of only 4-6 in the party-list tier.

    In reaction, political forces, especially secular ones, cried foul that SCAF chose to impose its blueprint on political life. Essam Shiha, a famous lawyer and a Wafd Party activist, argued that “not only has SCAF kept the individual candidacy system, but its draft of the law made it highly difficult for candidates — especially those belonging to newly-formed parties — to compete in the elections.” “It makes the size of districts covered by the party-list system very large, thus making it difficult for candidates of a particular force to compete because they will be forced to extend their campaigns to cover very large areas and in different places with no geographical relationship between them,” argued Shiha, adding that “in North Cairo, for example, the four candidates of each competing party will be forced to campaign in an area including no fewer than five million citizens.”

    Shiha also argued that “in a time of security vacuum, it will be highly dangerous to hold the elections of the People’s Assembly and Shura Council on the same day.” “It means that citizens will be exposed to two kinds of election campaigns for the first time on the same day, and they will be expected to elect a large number of deputies for two houses on one day,” said Shiha.

    According to the new law, when voters go to the polling stations, they will be faced with two lists of candidates for the People’s Assembly and two for the Shura Council. The first list will include candidates running as individuals and the second those running on a party ticket. Diaa Rashwan, director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, said that “the organisation of the elections of the People’s Assembly and Shura Council on the same day will make the voting process very complicated and cumbersome for citizens.”

    The absence of consensus between the military and the parties bodes ill for the prospects for democracy in Egypt.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (8)


    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Authoritarianism

    I don’t pretend to understand how significant are the events today in Yemen. But if I had to hazard a guess, I’d say “quite”.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Germany

    In the Berlin legislative elections yesterday, the Pirate Party won seats for the first time. Its planks include copyright reform and free public transport and wifi. It won 8.9% of the vote. Very timely, given that today is International Talk Like a Pirate Day. As the Pirates take up their seats in the city-state parliament, will they heed the advice “All hope abandon, ye who enter here”?

    The run of terrible election results for the Free Democrats (FDP)–the junior partner in the federal coalition–has continued. It won 1.8% of the vote, meaning it will have no seats. In the last Berlin election it had 7.8%. Earlier this month, the FDP also fell below the threshold in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. And in other state elections in March, it suffered the same fate in Rhineland-Pomerania and narrowly remained above the threshold in Baden-Wurttemberg.

    The outgoing government of Berlin was a coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Left Party. The SPD won 28.3% in this election and remains the largest party. However, the Left Party, with 11.7%, lost sufficient support as to leave the combine below 50%. The Greens, on the other hand, gained considerably, winning 17.6% (up from 13.1%). A new SPD-Green government would thus seem the most likely result. Arr!

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (5)


    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Egypt; ELECTORAL SYSTEMS & REFORM

    Max Fisher, in The Atlantic, writes about the dangers to Egypt’s (supposed) transition to democracy posed by the electoral system chosen for November’s election.

    The system adopted seems to be along the lines of what we discussed here some months ago. A potentially highly majoritarian mixed-member system: a nominal tier with 2-seat districts, and a parallel list tier with an average magnitude of only around 4.

    Fisher poses the concern that it could favor the least unpopular of Egypt’s many fledgling parties.

    _______
    Hat tip to Andrew Reynolds.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)


    18 September 2011

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Blogging

    The blog seems to have taken Shabbat off. And why not?

    For some reason, readers could not post comments yesterday. When I went into the Word Press “dashboard” this morning, I found that the option “users must be logged in to comment” was checked. I had never checked it.

    We’ve had this problem before, and I have no idea how to prevent it. But I was able to uncheck the setting, and everything should be open for business again.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)


    16 September 2011

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Australia

    The Australian government this week introduced to parliament a package of bills to regulate carbon. The government is a Labor minority, backed by Greens and independents. Labor is not doing well in polls (this is an understatement), and would lose to the Coalition (of Liberal and National) were there a new election for the House of Representatives.

    The Coalition has promised to scrap the laws if they have passed before the next election (which is, presumably, likely). The Climate Change Minister, Greg Combet, has pointed out that the Coalition’s promise is “silly“. As reported in News.com.au:

    The business community would be likely to be telling Mr Abbott [Coalition leader] once the legislation was in place and the scheme had commenced that carbon pricing was necessary to understand the nature of investment decisions and gauge expected returns, Mr Combet said.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (2)


    15 September 2011

    With an election on 26 November (and most of the country currently distracted by rugby), the pre-electoral legislative business is offering a good window into how the parties are positioning themselves for the campaign.

    The current government is led by the National Party, which won a plurality of seats in the 2008 election. It is supported by three smaller parties, the farther-right Act, the one-seat United Future (sort of centrist, sort of social-conservative), and the ethnic Maori Party.

    Act is all about pushing National farther right, and it is because of that Act goal that National took on Maori as partners, even though it could have had a majority without Maori. Needing to avoid straying too far from the national (small-n) median, the National Party would not want to be overly dependent upon the fringe right.

    Two recent press releases from Act sum up its position well. In one, the party claims credit for protecting rights and freedoms–emphasizing its libertarian side:

    ACT Parliamentary Leader John Boscawen today confirmed he had negotiated from the Government major changes in the Criminal Procedure (Reform and Modernisation) Bill that would mean the continued protection of rights and freedoms that New Zealanders have held dear for generations.

    “I had fundamental objections to the Bill but after successful negotiations with Justice Minister Simon Power all my objections have now been addressed,” Mr Boscawen said.

    It then goes on to list a series of specific concessions it claims to have won in exchange for its support.

    In another, it differentiates itself from the National party over the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). A little background is in order. This program was originally enacted late in the previous parliament, in the run-up to the 2008 election, when Labour headed a minority government. That government was backed by United Future and the New Zealand First Party of Winston Peters.1 At the time United Future would not support the ETS, and so the government worked out some concessions demanded by the Greens, who were not formal partners to the government. The Greens issued their own press release then, touting how they had improved the bill (from the standpoint of their constituents).

    Then when National won, it immediately stayed the implementation of the ETS. It later negotiated changes with the Maori (who won the right to earn credits from planting trees on tribal lands). Act would not vote in favor of any changes to the ETS. They believe climate change is a hoax, and want the law scrapped. This week they reminded their supporters of this position.

    ACT New Zealand Parliamentary Leader John Boscawen today called on the Government to drop the pretence and scrap the Emissions Trading Scheme altogether after the ETS Review Panel report recommended delaying the introduction of the energy, transport, industrial and agricultural sectors into the scheme.

    “Today’s report confirms what ACT has been saying all along; the ETS is a disaster and should be scrapped. [...]

    “The report today does a great job of highlighting the scheme’s flaws but does little to remedy them. Instead of delaying the inevitable the Government should have the courage of its convictions and do what ACT has called for all along – scrap the ETS,” Mr Boscawen said.

    Meanwhile, the National Party and the Greens have been negotiating on areas of mutual interest. That they would ever work together may seem odd, as they represent opposite ends of the political space, leaving aside Act. However, multiparty politics, especially with minority government, opens up all sorts of interesting possibilities for policy progress in specific areas of overlap.

    The two parties have announced a deal on a bill to regulate natural health products. The bill passed its first reading in parliament earlier today. It was a shared policy initiative agreed between these two parties under a Memorandum of Understanding. This is something far short of a formal government-support partnership, but a process that permits the Greens to pass policy of interest to their constituency even from the opposition. As for National, presumably they saw a benefit from advancing the safety and reliability of this sector of the market and could never get Act to go along.2 Greens have long looked for chances to show that they are not an appendage of Labour, able to work only with that party. Here is one concrete example.

    The Greens have a press release about the natural health bill featured very prominently on the party web site as of today. National also has a press release on it, but rather less prominently. The statements are subtly different, with Greens emphasizing the “stand alone regulator” to deal with natural health products coming “more and more… from countries with a poor safety record” and the benefits to “small business” (presumably natural supplement retailers are part of their constituency). National emphasizes “public assurances about the safety and efficacy of natural health products” and concluding by noting the “three-year transitional period to assist the industry in adjusting to the proposed requirements”.

    As to the Greens’ dealing with National, the main opposition party, Labour, has attacked the smaller left party as being “more Blue than Green“, as reported in the NZ Herald, 14 Sept. (Blue is National’s color.) The specific issue referenced is Green support for the government’s environmental protection plan for potential offshore oil and gas fields.3 Labour, with polls showing it having no realistic chance of forming the next government, is clearly trying to out flank the Greens and hold off further losses to the them. Polls show the Green Party may score a record high in the upcoming election.

    Finally, going back to an old story, as the government was formed following the close 2005 election, I posed the question, “Did the NZ government agreement promise pork?” I concluded no, because the agreement did not promise to the United Future that the “Transmission Gully” road would be built to relieve traffic around leader Peter Dunne’s district. It only promised a review of the project. Well, according to two items on the National website this week (1, 2), the project is still under review. So not much pork for Dunne to claim credit for in this election–only that, six years later, we still have the government looking in to it!

    The New Zealand campaign and legislative sessions afford an excellent laboratory to watch multiparty politics, policy-making, and party positioning in action!

    1. A hard party, and leader, to characterize. Sometimes, based on media stories, I actually wonder if his name was not officially The Mercurial Winston Peters. The party has a constituency that is anti-immigrant and pro “law and order”, and disproportionately elderly. It did not make it back into parliament in 2008 and probably will not this time, either. []
    2. Notwithstanding that its party name originally meant the Alliance of Consumers and Taxpayers, and this is a consumer safety measure. Act has a low-tax, low-regulation ideology. []
    3. The Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf (Environmental Effects) Bill passed its second reading with support from Maori Party, Act, United Future, as well as the Greens. The Greens have not committed yet to supporting it all the way through the legislative process, depending on its final provisions. []

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Israel; POLITICAL PARTIES

    The Labor (Avoda) Party of Israel is in the process of choosing a new leader. Its former leader, Ehud Barak, left the party with several other members of the Knesset some months ago in order to remain in the current Likud-led coalition. The majority of the party went into opposition, while Barak formed a new party within the coalition known as Independence (Atzmaut).

    The contest is a two-round process in which its rank-and-file membership of around 66,000 is eligible to vote. About 44,000 members cast votes. If the leading candidate obtains over 40% in the first round, he or she is elected. If not, there is a runoff between the top two. From Haaretz:

    After a relatively high voter turnout, the Labor primaries yielded inconclusive results on Monday, with Sheli Yachimovich and Amir Peretz at a near tie with 32% and 31% of the votes respectively, and Isaac Herzog trailing behind with 25%.

    A recent Haaretz poll suggests the party could do quite a bit better than its current representation if there were a new general election: 22 seats if Yachimovich is leader, 18 if Peretz is.

    The party won 13 seats in the last election, and currently has 8 seats after the Barak-led split. A poll at the time of the split had put Labor at 6 seats and Independence at 3 (see first link).

    Haaretz commented, “Apparently, this is the first instance of a leader rehabilitating a political party by leaving it.”

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    11 September 2011

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: wide open spaces

    It’s the 11th of September, a date memorable in history for one of the most fascinating elections in the annals of comparative politics, and a day that changed the world.

    I didn’t miss anything for this list, did I?

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Canada; Ont.

    The campaign for 6 October provincial parliamentary elections in Ontario is underway.

    According to the ThreeHundredEight projection as of today, the province is headed towards a no-majority situation. Conservatives and the NDP could each make big gains.

    The current government is Liberal, (re-)elected in 2007 with a large seat majority. The Liberals would fall to second place, behind the Conservatives, according to current polling.

    The province has some history of rather odd votes-seats relationships, which is why there was a review of the electoral system initiated following the 2003 election that brought the Liberals to power. A Citizens Assembly proposed MMP, but the proposed reform went down to resounding defeat in a referendum concurrent with the October, 2007, provincial election. So Ontario has remained stuck with an ill-fitting FPTP, at least for now.

    Will the 2011 election offer supporters of MMP their “We told you so” moment?

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (3)


    09 September 2011

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Judaism; Travel; Ukraine

    This is the Golden Rose Synagogue, or what is left of it.


    Lviv synagogue ruins_1

    The photo (taken by me) is from 2005. Built in the late 16th century, the Golden Rose was once one of the most important centers of Jewish life in the old Austro-Hungarian empire. It is located in Lviv, Ukraine (formerly Lvov, Poland, and before that Austrians and the Yiddish-speaking Jews knew the city as Lemberg). The ruins, as well as the near-absence of Jews in Lviv today, are a legacy of the Shoah (Holocaust).

    According to Tom Gross at The Guardian’s Comment is Free blog, the synagogue is under threat from a hotel project. This has been denied by the Mayor of Lviv.

    I don’t know who is right, but this a key cultural landmark, and a UNESCO World Heritage Site. It needs to be preserved.

    The story has me wondering about the safety of another incredible synagogue that we saw, the 17th century Pink Synagogue of Zhovka (which is near Lviv).


    Zhovka pink synagogue 2_1

    Obviously, this building is far more intact. Just as obviously, it is (or was in 2005) in a very serious state of disrepair.

    I went to look up “pink synagogue zhovka” in Google, and the first hit is my own Laderafrutal travel page! I could not find anything about its current condition, six years since I was there. Maybe no news is good news.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)


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    Recent comments.

  • Does STV have anything to do with absence of “free votes” in Ireland? (13)
    • JD: Tom: So you mean primaries as practised in the US. I don’t think primaries are understood to include this provision anywhere else, even...
    • Alan: What Tom said, except that I’d add that the major parties in Australia have a habit of subverting their own rules by imposing...
    • Tom Round: JD, because a government body has an electoral roll stating that “These people are registered supporters of the Democratic Party,...
    • JD: Tom, I’m not sure I understand why primaries the secret ballot. Alan, how is that different from a (closed) primary?
    • Alan: I’m not a fan of primaries, for the reasons Tom states. I am a fan of requiring parties to nominate candidates by a ballot of all party...
    • Tom Round: It would indeed be ironic if one reason discouraging parties from allowing free votes was an electoral system that could enable voters...
  • BC election 2013 (8)
    • Chris: The federal Liberal party hate the Conservatives more than they hate the NDP. They think Trudeau fil will get them a majority government,...
    • Ed: Its been explained to me that BC politics seems complicated, but is actually pretty simple: everyone gangs up against the NDP, but the...
    • MSS: I am struck by the degree of malapportionmen t in BC. For instance, the Peace River South winner’s 46.4% was only 3,904 votes, whereas...
    • MSS: The Green Party won the Oak Bay-Gordon Head seat, with 40.1%. It was not close, with incumbent Liberal Ida Chong having only 29.7% and the NDP...
    • MSS: I guess this is why they still have actual elections with actual voters casting actual ballots! How could the pollsters be so wrong?
    • Vasi: Well that was surprising! Once again, the polls in a Canadian election were off, and the incumbents do much better than expected.
    • Tom Round: BC: where a 39% sub-plurality is enough to elect a government for five years (absolute majority of seats, no upper house) but a 57%...
    • JD: Oh, how different (and more interesting) things would have been had STV been approved…
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