Fruits and Votes » 2011

Planted by MSS
Planted in: New Zealand; VOTES

Here in New Zealand, it is Friday, the day before the general election and electoral-system referendum.

Discuss if you wish…

Planted by MSS
Planted in: The Ballyard

Wondering if any of my baseball-fan readers want to discuss the changes announced in MLB–Astros moving to the AL, inter-league play almost every day. Probably a one-game playoff between two wild card teams in each league.

(The latter idea is one I have argued against–just click on “The Ballyard” above and scroll down a bit.)

Propagation: Seeds & scions (7)

Australian Speaker and Green MP

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Australia

Australia’s House Speaker, Harry Jenkins, is resigning out of “frustration” with the role, which requires impartiality. Jenkins wants to resume participation in Labor Party policy debates. He will be replaced by his deputy, who is from the opposition Liberals. This change positively affects the balance of the closely divided House in favor of Labor. And it may undercut independent ~~Senator~~ Representative Andrew Wilkie’s leverage. Wilkie, one of four non-Labour MPs providing Labour with confidence and supply, has threatened to withdraw support over reform of poker machines (yes, really, “pokie” reform is his big issue).

Meanwhile, one of the other four MPs providing confidence and supply, Green MP Adam Bandt, has been named Australian politician of the year by GQ. The Sky article says GQ “mistakenly” refers to Bandt as the first Green ever elected to the House. But wasn’t he the first? I thought so, and Wikipedia says so. Wikipedia trumps GQ for me, unless someone convinces me otherwise.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (10)

23 November 2011

No systemic failure–so why change?

Planted by MSS
Planted in: ELECTORAL SYSTEMS & REFORM; Mixed-member; MMP Review; New Zealand; Referenda

Today’s New Zealand Herald has an editorial in favor of a vote to keep the current electoral system in Saturday’s referendum. The key point:

Change would be justified only if MMP had failed to produce governments that voters recognised as an expression of their collective will.

That is a good summary of the argument I have made in published work about “systemic failure” as a precondition for electoral-system change. For a proportional system to have “failed” by objective criteria, it would need to be seen to have prevented the formation of governments that were an expression of collective preferences of the majority. It can happen with proportional systems, but has not in New Zealand–at least not outside of the first MMP election in 1996. As the editorial also notes, “Fears that the minor-party tail would wag the dog have proved largely unfounded.”

As for the second question on the referendum–the choice among possible replacement systems–Scoop published a story with a graphic showing several polling results over time. No system other than the old FPTP (or FPP), which New Zealand abandoned with the two-stage referendum of 1992-93, has made any traction.¹

Single transferable vote (STV) looks like a clear second choice, but has never polled above 20%, while neither of the other options, “PV” (really the alternative vote/instant runoff) or “SM” (really MMM, the non-compenstory mixed-member variant), has cracked 10%. I commented before on why SM (MMM) is the solution to a problem New Zealand does not actually have , even if anti-MMP campaigners are trying to sell it as a “compromise” between MMP (which they don’t like) and FPTP (which they presume could not defeat MMP in the one-on-one referendum that would follow in three years if a majority votes Saturday for “change”).

The story also has a link to an Excel spreadsheet with the polling data. [↩]

Propagation: Seeds & scions (3)

Campaign signs and more campaign signs

Planted by MSS
Planted in: New Zealand; VOTES

See campaign photos for the New Zealand election, uploaded at Flickr by me and also by Errol.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)

20 November 2011

V is for apricot

Planted by MSS
Planted in: FRUITS; New Zealand

This is one of the more interesting examples of high-density orchard culture that I have ever seen.

On the road between Cromwell and Wanaka, on the South Island of New Zealand.

Alas, no campaign signs nearby.

(Click for another angle showing the close spacing more clearly.)

Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)

I need this for my orchard

Planted by MSS
Planted in: FRUITS; New Zealand; VOTES

No, not the sign for the National Party, but the full enclosure to protect the trees–cherries, in this case. (Click for a closer view.)

Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)

Spain election, 2011

Planted by MSS
Planted in: Spain

Spain votes in the midst of its troubles. We know who the winner will be–the Popular Party will supplant the Socialists–but by a majority, or will it be another minority government?

Propagation: Seeds & scions (5)

Towards a more perfect F&V planting

Planted by MSS
Planted in: FRUITS; New Zealand; VOTES

Cromwell, South Island, New Zealand

If you want to see the fruits only, up close, click here.

So there are folks keeping alive the flame of Social Credit.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (0)

Campaign signs in New Zealand

Planted by MSS
Planted in: New Zealand

(Installment 1 of likely many…)

The two largest parties in New Zealand, Labour and National, are using subtly different strategies to advertise themselves ahead of the 26 November election.

All of the National signs that I have seen so far (on the South Island) show John Key, the party leader and incumbent Prime Minister. They either contain some numbered point out of the party’s policy platform (e.g. “3. Rebuild Christchurch”), or they show the electorate (district) candidate along with Key–such as this one on the road between Christchurch and Dunedin.

All of the signs for Labour district candidates that I have seen so far are like the upper one here on this corner in Christchurch. They show only the local candidate; no image of the party leader (and PM candidate), Phil Goff, is present.

Other signs have policy issues indicated, such as the lower sign in the same photo, or the following other example.

Of course, the reason for these differences is that Key is very popular–more than his party. Goff, on the other hand, is unpopular, and the party has made an explicit point that its campaign is about “issues”.

Propagation: Seeds & scions (4)

The perfect F&V planting?

Planted by MSS
Planted in: New Zealand