Updated and re-planted from its original (21 Jan.), with results provided beneath, thanks to Wilf.
If you are relying on the mainstream media–even the BBC–all you might notice is that the ultra-nationalists “won” the election! Not the result that the EU was hoping for! Of course, in a system like Serbia’s where the executive must be based on a majority in parliament, a plurality “victory” is irrelevant unless other, also non-majority parties, choose to make it so. The more important story is that the pro-Western democratic parties won a large majority. That does not mean that the formation of a united coalition of democratic forces will be “easy.” They have their differences (as Wilf alludes to below). If they had no differences, they would have contested the election as a unified electoral bloc. But none of their component parties is likely to prefer a coalition with fascists and socialists.
This is about as good an outcome as one could expect in the only country in Europe to have had its government and people coerced by aerial bombardment at the hands of Western European and American forces since WWII, and the only country ever to have had the UN prepare to sever a portion of its territory from it.
Parliamentary elections in Serbia on 21 January could be crucial for the country’s ultimate prospects of European Union membership.
The following is excerpted from the Southeast European Times (linked above), with the votes percentages of the parties in the 2003 parliamentary elections inserted in the third paragraph.
Sunday’s vote pits Western-oriented political parties — including Serbian President Boris Tadic’s reformist Democratic Party (DS) and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica’s moderately conservative Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS). — against parties associated with the regime of Slobodan Milosevic.
The most recent polls suggest that Tadic’s DS has taken a lead over the ultra nationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS), nominally still led by Hague war crimes indictee Vojislav Seselj.
According to the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy, support for the DS has reached 29% [12.6], making them the most popular party in the country. The SRS is in second place with 26% [27.6], and the DSS is third with 19% [17.7].
As depressing as it may be to see the essentially fascist SRS holding steady at over a quarter of the vote, the big rise of support for the DS–assuming the voting confirms the poll–is encouraging.
The electoral system is some form of party-list PR, according to IFES, but I have no details. {Alex provides some further information at the propagation bench.}
In addition to the propagators’ comments here, AFOE has two very detailed overviews: “Elections in Seribia–Oh, well” and “Serbia–That Incredible Shrinking Country.” From the former post:
So. 250 seats, 126 needed to form a government. Who you gonna call?
Look at those numbers again. The Radicals are pariahs. The DSS and DS hate each other… but it is impossible for either to form a government without the other! Put both Radicals and DSS in opposition, and you have an “opposition†of 127 votes. D’oh! And, of course, putting DS into opposition is even worse.
So, unless something totally bizarre happens, we’re going to see another government built around a DS-DSS entente. And even that only gives 112 votes, so they’ll have to tack on a third coalition partner, either G17 or the Liberal Democrat mess. Both of those will complicate matters mightily.
Having said this, I must add that this could be better — slightly — than the last government, which was a truly ridiculous Frankenstein monster of a coalition, with liberals, conservatives, technocrats, socialists, monarchists, mystical nationalists, and, really, the kitchen sink. This one may at least have fewer actors.
On the other hand, Marti Ahtisaari goes live with his “proposal†for Kosovo in the first week of February. That should have an interesting effect on things. Order your tickets now.
The system is 5% threshold d’Hondt, with no threshold for ethnic minorities, according to IPU.
The main idea here, I would think, is that DSS (Kostunica) and DS will probably have to come to some sort of accord–given DS’s resurgence and the desire to avoid a government with SRS. I talked about this a little bit a couple of weeks ago, not that I claim to be an expert on the nuances of Serbian politics.
Seed planted by Alex — 19 January 2007 @ 21:36
The Tanjug news agency has results for the 250 seats:
LDP-SDU-GSS-LSV coalition 14; Liberal Democratic Party, Social Democratic Union, Civic Alliance of Serbia (anti-war, anti-racist), and League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina: wooing young, urban voters, pledges to fight for the rights of all minorities.
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians 3
List for Sandzak coalition 2
Union of Serbian Roma 1
Roma Party 1
G17 Plus 19 (clear pro-European position, lower interest rates, and ambitious plans for investing in the country’s infrastructure.)
Democratic Party 65 (liberal pro-European)
Democratic Party of Serbia-New Serbia coalition 48 (Vojislav Kostunica’s centre-right coalition advocating co-operation with the international community, but “not at any cost”.)
Socialist Party of Serbia 16 (social justice, free education and social security for all, and Kosovo should be protected with arms, “should the need arise”)
Serbian Radical Party 81 (nationalist leader Vojislav Seselj is on trial in The Hague on charges of inciting ethnic and religious hatred.)
(Only lists that win at least five percent of the total number of votes take part in the distribution of parliament seats. The threshold does not apply to six lists of political parties and coalitions of ethnic minorities, and they may win seats in the parliament with less than five percent of the votes.)
G17 Plus leader Mladjan Dinkic said late on Sunday that the Democratic Party, Democratic Party of Serbia-New Serbia coalition and G17 Plus had 132 seats, which was enough for them to set up a new Serbian government as a “democratic unity” coalition.
He added that the so-called pro-democracy bloc, together with the national minority parties, would have 153 seats. (That’s adding the first 21 seats listed above.)
But Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP) leader Cedomir Jovanovic said late on Sunday that “there can be no compromise with the policy symbolised by Vojislav Kostunica and there can be no cohabitation.” (But without Kostunica the democrats have only 105 seats, 21 short of a majority. So he wants to be in opposition?)
By the way, another site in Serbian has seat numbers one or two different, but the architecture remains the same.
Seed planted by Wilf Day — 22 January 2007 @ 06:49
Missing the threshold:
Vuk Draskovic’s SPO (Serbian Renewal Movement) got 3.38 percent, and PUPS-SDP (Party of United Pensioners of Serbia-Social Democratic Party) got 3.08 percent of the vote. With the 3% threshhold that some people prefer, they would have been in parliament.
I expect a “Grey Power” party would get 3% in many places. Is 3% enough?
Seed planted by Wilf Day — 22 January 2007 @ 13:08
[...] and seats (81/250). However, the much more important result of the parliamentary elections was that pro-Western parties allied to Tadic won a large majority, and together form the current government. _________ Consider this quote from Nikolic’s [...]
Scion grafted by Fruits and Votes » Prof. Shugart's Blog » Serbian presidential election — 20 January 2008 @ 22:41