The Liberal Party government of New Brunswick, which took power in elections last fall, thanks to the existing FPTP system’s reversal of the popular-vote outcome, has called off the referendum on the electoral system planned for February, 2008. That referendum had been scheduled by the previous Conservative government in response to the recommendation of the independent Commission on Legislative Democracy. The major recommendation of the Commission had been to move the provincial legislative elections to MMP. Instead, the current government calls for a series of relatively timid steps towards political reform, not including any the reform of the very electoral system that produced the current spurious-majority government.
In the run-up to that election, I asked if electoral reform was “stalled” (on account of the major parties’ ignoring the already public reform recommendations in their platforms). After the anomaly of the plurality reversal, I speculated on whether a government that was based on the second-most vote thanks to the system the Commission proposed to abolish through referendum would have the nerve to call off a referendum that had been agreed to by the party that, in fact, obtained the plurality when seeking reelection. Well, now we know. Some nerve!
Is anyone really surprised?
I get mixed signals about the Ontario referendum, too. Among old friends in Canada, those who’ve followed the issue more closely are less optimistic.
Seed planted by Jack — 03 July 2007 @ 12:08
Jack,
At the risk of hijacking a thread that’s supposed to be about New Brunswick, what do your Ontario sources see as the main problem? My impression is that in both British Columbia in 2005 and Ontario now, the biggest roadblock was/is lack of publicity and information.
The New Brunswick government’s behavior seems especially cheeky in view of the fact that there’s an arguably better way: (1) impose a very high supermajority requirement (in fact, two of them), and (2) promise to educate the public and then don’t get around to it.
Of course, this strategy almost failed in British Columbia (58% of the province-wide vote where 60% was needed; simple majorities in 97% of the districts where majorities were needed in 60% of the districts). Maybe the New Brunswick Liberals do need to be cheeky.
Seed planted by Bob Richard — 03 July 2007 @ 13:42
Bob, your point (1).
Seed planted by Jack — 03 July 2007 @ 15:14
Interesting – I lived in BC during the STV referendum and I now live in Ontario. I got the sense in BC that people really wanted a change but (a) did not understand STV very well and (b) lacked the ability to get well informed on it. But the growth in numbers of people supporting it during the campaign was quite remarkable, and I think 5 extra days in the campaign would have been enough to hit that 60% threshold.
Here in Ontario, I am getting more of a vibe that people don’t want change as much – that goes along with the political culture of Ontarion being a little more traditionalist than BC. But I think a lot will depend on what the Globe/Citizen/Star etc. have to say on the subject – if the editorialists start endorsing the system (and don’t bring up the dreaded I’s) then I hope we have a shot.
To bring this back on topic, I will be using the fact that a 2nd place NB government is cancelling the referendum as proof that we need to vote in the new system while we have the chance!
Seed planted by Chris B — 06 July 2007 @ 00:25