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Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

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  • 24 October 2007

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Wildfire & Earthquakes

    1:00 a.m.

    FALLBROOK EVACUATIONS
    Reverse 9-1-1 was used to issue mandatory evacuations in the communities of Bonsall, San Luis Rey Heights and Winterwarm on the north side of Highway 76. Residents should use Highway 76 heading west away from the fires.

    SHELTER UPDATE IN OCEANSIDE
    The Oceanside Police Department reports that the shelter at El Camino High School is full and evacuees should to go to MiraCosta College at 1 Barnard Drive off of College Avenue, north of Highway 78 in Oceanside.

    Bonsall. That’s us. But it’s a big area, and so far our part is not under the orders.

    Another sleepless night.

    UCSD closed rest of the week. I-5 now closed between San Diego and Orange Counties.

    Conditions here: No wind whatsoever all night, and the last gust of more than a 1 or 2 MPH was mid-afternoon and on-shore (S/SW). It’s 64 degrees, 31% humidity.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (11)


    Fruits and Votes grafted Instinct and error
    PoliBlog grafted The SoCal Fires

    11 ideas sprouting »

    1. I hope all is well.

      Seed planted by Greg Weeks — 24 October 2007 @ 08:17

    2. 3:46 AM. Glad I slept from 10 to 1, because I doubt I am going to sleep the rest of the night, but for now the evidence still points to nothing heading this way.

      I do think the local authorities are over-reacting just a bit this time in ordering evacuations well away from current fire lines. I know that is better than what they did in 2003, which was more or less nothing for several hours while fires bore down on populated areas. But at the moment I am actually more in fear of the evacuation order, per se, than I am of a fire actually threatening us.

      Neighbor closest to us, up hill, in direction fire would most likely have to come from, has been irrigating his avo grove for about 8 hours. That’s good (as long as his slope does not slide down on us from over-saturation–no, not a real risk). I am running some of my avo irrigation right now, too. Avos will burn, of course, but quite slowly. And there are many thousands of avo trees between us and the current fire line. Still no wind, other than a brief 6 MPH NE gust at 2:18.

      Lots of ash in the air.

      Seed planted by MSS — 24 October 2007 @ 08:50

    3. Oh, just heard there is a danger to western Fallbrook from a fire in Camp Pendleton. The winds up there apparently are now onshore. Which is bad for Fallbrook. This particular area is NOT near us.

      Seed planted by MSS — 24 October 2007 @ 08:52

    4. Just realized. I can see stars!

      Although it still smells smoky and one can see ash falling, the worst of the smoke has cleared. The moon is very much visible off to the west, quite high in the sky. It has an orangish cast, but very bright and beautiful!

      Seed planted by MSS — 24 October 2007 @ 08:56

    5. Two posts at the NCT discussion say that an area very close to us, to the west, has just received reverse 911 calls to get out, and another says the fire has jumped hwy. 76 north of us.

      We may be bugging out after all. If no updates here for an extended period, that’s why. (I do not have a laptop.)

      However, the SD emergency site indicates it was updated at 4:00 a.m., yet there is nothing new posted on this (or any) area. So, who knows?…

      Seed planted by MSS — 24 October 2007 @ 09:00

    6. Thanks for the updates.

      That is amazing about the I-5.

      Good luck and stay safe!

      Seed planted by Steven Taylor — 24 October 2007 @ 09:36

    7. The SoCal Fires

      The LAT’s latest update on the fires is here. 1,155 homes — and counting. The story includes this helpful map of the location of the fires (Matthew is in Bonsall, which is near the Fallbrook fire).

      Scion grafted by PoliBlog — 24 October 2007 @ 09:48

    8. Matt: I am thinking of you from afar (from New Zealand to be precise). My parents lost their home, car, and all their belongings in the February 1967 “Black Tuesday” Tasmanian bushfires. The news during the past few days from southern California (and especially from the area around San Diego) in New Zealand’s newspapers and on New Zealand television has made me think about what happened to my parents more than forty years ago, and I do sincerely hope that nothing like that happens to you. All the very best, Nigel Roberts (Victoria University of Wellington).

      Seed planted by Nigel Roberts — 24 October 2007 @ 19:56

    9. Take care.

      Seed planted by Alan — 24 October 2007 @ 22:52

    10. One hears about the fires in the news over here, but now I ‘know’ someone over there, it’s different! Take care and I wish you all the luck you should need.

      Seed planted by Bancki — 25 October 2007 @ 04:56

    11. Instinct and error

      All common sense said that, despite ash floating in the air, there was no fire close enough to be an imminent threat and no weather conditions that would allow one to rip through the wide and wet riverbed and many thousands of avocado trees between the Rice fire and us. But conditions can change rapidly… So, we got belongings together… and were out by 5:00.

      Scion grafted by Fruits and Votes — 02 December 2007 @ 18:21

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    FRUIT FEEDS
    PROPAGATION
    Recent comments.

  • Do UK elections now allow fusion candidacies? (1)
    • Tom Round: The “Coupon Election” of 1918 was a similar arrangement (though it originated top-down, with “coupons& #8221; or...
  • BC election 2013 (14)
    • Chris: And while I’m not sure, the Saskatchewan Party may have had ‘unite the right’ ideas in it’s establishment (this...
    • Chris: It wouldn’t be unprecedented to see a name change away from a federally.affil iated name. The Yukon PC Party changed its name to the...
    • Ed: The provincial NDP in BC seems to be consistent in polling in the high 30s or low 40s, so can be kept out indefinitely as long as everyone else...
    • MSS: The BC Liberals have been considering a name change to make more obvious their non-affiliation with the federal Liberals. There is even a...
    • MSS: Right. I missed 1972, when the NDP won more than two thirds of the seats on just 39.6% of the votes. So that makes three elections in which...
    • Chris: The federal Liberal party hate the Conservatives more than they hate the NDP. They think Trudeau fil will get them a majority government,...
    • Ed: Its been explained to me that BC politics seems complicated, but is actually pretty simple: everyone gangs up against the NDP, but the...
    • MSS: I am struck by the degree of malapportionmen t in BC. For instance, the Peace River South winner’s 46.4% was only 3,904 votes, whereas...
    • MSS: The Green Party won the Oak Bay-Gordon Head seat, with 40.1%. It was not close, with incumbent Liberal Ida Chong having only 29.7% and the NDP...
  • Does STV have anything to do with absence of “free votes” in Ireland? (13)
    • JD: Tom: So you mean primaries as practised in the US. I don’t think primaries are understood to include this provision anywhere else, even...
    • Alan: What Tom said, except that I’d add that the major parties in Australia have a habit of subverting their own rules by imposing...
    • Tom Round: JD, because a government body has an electoral roll stating that “These people are registered supporters of the Democratic Party,...
    • JD: Tom, I’m not sure I understand why primaries the secret ballot. Alan, how is that different from a (closed) primary?
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