Propagation: Seeds & scions (4)

4 ideas sprouting »

1. I asked for it, so I have to ‘plant a tree’ (Dutch for to open a discussion):

   The EP struggled over a impartial method of allocating seats to the 27 member-states. See
   BBC news story

   The constrains were:
   1) the total must be 750 (or less),
   2) the biggest one (Germany) gets 96 seats (or less) and the smallest one (Malta) gets 6 seats (or more) (Malta is 204 times smaller than Germany and its deputation is 16 times smaller than the German one)
   3) the method is not fully proportional but some form of ‘degressive proportionality’: smaller states cannot get more seats than bigger states, but the ratio seats/population should decrease as the size of the member-state increases.

   No mathematical sound method was given by the EP (decision of 11 october), the compromise was merely a step-by-step adjusting of the existing figures so that the ratio seats/population decreases as the size of the member-state increases. See the ‘Lamassoure
   and Severin Report’ of the EP Committee on Constitutional Affairs.

   The Italian government protested: until now the UK, France and Italy had the same number of seats, but in het Lamassoure-Severin-proposal, Italy was awarded one seat less than the UK and two less than France. Italy also complained about the basic population figures: it wanted its citizens (weherever they live) to be counted in stead of its residents (whatever their nationality).

   At the European summit in Lisbon (18-19 october), they agreed to award Italy a 751st seat, and the non voting president of the EP is disregarded for the maximum of 750 seats. See Deutsche Welle news story. The Treaty will be signed on 13 december.

   The EP apportionment was always a political bargain (together with the voting power of each national minister in the Council) and not a mathematical sound process and I fear this won’t change in the near future…

   What could be a mathematical sound method of ‘degressive proportionality’, given the constrains? (proportional with some root of the population?)
   What should be the figures to base the apportionment (resident population, citizens,…), knowing that EU citizens can vote in the EU country they live in?

   Seed planted by Bancki — 21 November 2007 @ 10:19

2. A formula that obviously obeys the criteria is of the form Seats(p) = A*p^r + B . There are three constraints: smallest country has 6 seats, largest has 96, and all together have 751. So you can solve numerically for all three constants, giving approximately A = 1.2e-5, B = 5.1, r = 0.87. It ends up looking very reasonable, slightly more generous to large countries than the current setup, but still quite ‘degressive’.

   It’s not perfect:
   * I’m not aware of any way to solve exactly (ie: symbolically).
   * One or two smallish countries lose a seat compared to their standing in the current 736-seat parliament, which is a no-no.
   * Rounding issues can cause small reversals of ‘degressiveness’. (It’s time to start electing fractional MPs!)

   I’ll ask My Friend The Statistician if he can think of a better formula.

   Seed planted by Vasi — 22 November 2007 @ 07:30

3. Nah. Simplicity. “Each Member State starts with 6 seats. Then allocate additional seats, one by one, using St-Lague, until total reaches 751. Exclude any Member State after it reaches 96.”

   For the UN General Assembly (now there’s a real pipe dream), I like the method someone proposed – “The Economist”, perhaps? early 1990s? – of highest averages but, each time a nation gets an extra UNGA seat, its “comparison number” is halved (ie, the divisor is doubled, rather than increased by 1). So the divisors for a nation’s first 10 seats would be 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256… rather than 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 (d’Hondt) or 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19… (St-Lague).

   I like that for a federal Senate, but it’s too non-population-reflective for a “national” or even “federal” lower house, which the EP has really become.

   BTW, does Malta elect its 6 MEPs by nation-wide STV-PR?

   Seed planted by Tom Round — 24 November 2007 @ 09:42

4. Vaclav Klaus, president of the Czech Republic, the EU presiding country this semester, delivered a controversial speech in the European Parliament.

   I take the liberty to pick one issue out of the mêlée: he uses a narrow adversarial definition of ‘democracy’: because there is no permanent majority/opposition-division in the EP, the EU is not a real democracy.

   On the contrary, I would say: because that winner/loser-division isn’t static, individual MEPs are more influential and discussions are more interesting.

   (And yes, Malta elects its MEPs by STV)

   Seed planted by Bancki — 19 February 2009 @ 19:13

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