An article from NZ Stuff looks at a recent poll and the likely government-formation scenarios for the election expected in about a year.
… a result of 45 per cent on election night would put the Treasury benches within National’s reach. But â€“ and this is where the worry beads get pulled out â€“ not close enough to be assured of crossing the line. Based on Saturday’s poll results, National would hold 57 seats and could muster another two with the help of its natural allies, ACT and UnitedFuture. Close â€“ but not close enough to break out the cigars.
Labour, in the other camp, would hold just 51 seats, but can call on its natural allies the Greens and the Progressives, taking it to 58 seats.
Under this scenario, the Maori Party is kingmaker.1
The article notes that there are plenty of reasons why neither party would like that, although the Maori party has voted with Labour just over half the time while voting with National only about a third of the time. In fact, it is the Greens that the Maori party is closest to on a wide range of issues.
As for strange-bedfellows coalitions, the article notes:
Of course, MMP has ways of making uneasy fits work â€“ the Greens and Labour are incompatible on numerous policy fronts (take trade, for instance). But the lessons forced on both by the genetic engineering standoff [in 2001-02] â€“ coupled with the comfort that comes from having fashioned together a good working relationship over Labour’s eight years in government â€“ have stayed with it.
The Maori party need not have cabinet seats or any other formal role in a coalition, of course.
The Maori Party may yet decide to stay on the cross-benches â€“ that debate is still raging within the party.
National then might be able to form a minority government courtesy of an abstention deal from the Maori Party on confidence and supply â€“ but its agenda would be hostage to a Parliament which, on voting record, would be predominantly Left-leaning.
Imagine that! A government “hostage” to the people’s representative agents!
Thanks to Greg, in the previous thread, for sending the item along.
The same news item is also discussed at No Right Turn.
- The article later notes that the results projection assumes NZ First will not be in parliament, but that one can’t count Winston Peters out. Indeed, as discussed in the previous NZ thread, he will probably run and win again in his old district of Tauranga. Obviously, the projections assume Hide will again win Epsom, keeping the ACT in. [↩]