Hamas beat Fatah by about 44% to 41% in the party-list vote at the January, 2006, elections. The electoral system turned that narrow plurality into an approximately three-fifths majority in the legislature.1
A recent poll, however, says:
If new legislative elections were to be held today, Hamas would receive 31percent of the vote, while Fatah would capture 49 percent.
The theme of the article in Haaretz, from which I quoted, is that this is “stable” support. While that may be true relative to a poll cited from September, surely the bigger story should be what a large decline this “stability” represents, from the actual legislative election.
Alas, poll respondents are probably also right about something else:
About two-thirds of those surveyed said chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years are slim or non-existent, compared with 70 percent who said they felt that way in June.
That result is thus a bit less stable, and perhaps headed the right way,2 but still very (and realistically) pessimistic.
The was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (see press release).
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I am guessing Gaza had the most Hamas support, since that is where they were able to take over. Feel free to correct me.
There is no way anyone has done a recent poll of the Gaza Strip. Did they get the power generators back online? A month ago Israel was promising to slowly turn off the power unless the Qassem rocket attacks stopped (looks to me like the US is backing collective punishment).
Fundamentally, there were major penalties imposed on the Palestinians for exercising their will. Major aide sources were cut off, which mean a lot more to the impoverished Palestinians than the billions of aide we send to Israel each year.
Israel regularly invades Gaza.
The gist is that if people vote for the wrong people, death and destruction follow.
Many Palestinians have gotten the hint, and would rather live than enjoy the right to vote.
Since we support this now, we certainly can’t complain if someone threatens to kill us if we don’t vote the way _they_ want, now can we?
Seed planted by No Eponym At This Time — 19 December 2007 @ 22:05
The poll did indeed include Gaza. It was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, a reputable pollster.
Yes, Hamas was stronger in Gaza than in most of the West Bank in the 2006 elections.
Some other notes from the press release, now that the first comment prompted me to look a bit more closely:
Understand that I am only reporting what the poll says. I am not commenting on policy matters regarding the situation (except to say, as should be clear from past plantings, that I favor the establishment of a Palestinian state).
Seed planted by MSS — 20 December 2007 @ 03:00