Close on the heels of its worse-than-expected defeat in Gujarat, the Indian National Congress is bracing for a possible defeat in state assembly elections just completed in the northwestern state of Himachal Pradesh, reports Daily News & Analysis India (26 December). Votes will be counted Friday.
Congress fears anti-incumbent voting might emerge as a strong factor against the party in Himachal, reports DNA India (25 December). Congress currently rules the state. It won 43 of the 68 seats in the previous election, in 2003. The main rival, BJP, won only 16 seats in that election. However, the 2003 election was much closer than that seat result implies: Congress beat the BJP in votes only 41.0% to 35.4%.1 The Congress won 18 of those districts with less than 45% of the votes, 8 with less than 40%. It would not take much of a votes swing to give the BJP a plurality of seats.
In an odd twist, the current Himachal assembly and cabinet are due to remain in office until March. Commenting on what many have perceived to be an impending constitutional crisis, if the BJP wins, Chief Election Commissioner N Gopalaswamy, said on 13 December:
The Constitution is very clear on this issue.Two assemblies can co-exist. After the elections, there will be no constitutional crisis in the state. (Indian Express, 14 December.)
The current government of Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh can remain in power through this lengthy transition. The new assembly would not actually sit till 9 March, but its composition will be known by the end of this month. The Revenue Minister in the incumbent government has filed a petition with the high court demanding that counting be delayed until March, though national Congress officials have “distanced” themselves from the move (DNA India, 25 Dec.).
Why the long period of lame duckery?
Elections in Himachal Pradesh are being held about three months in advance to facilitate voting for three assembly seats of Kinnaur, Lahaul & Spiti and Bharmour along with the rest of the state. All high altitude passes that connect these areas to the rest of the state are official closed on November 15. Polling in these three constituencies were held on November 14. In the rest of the 65 assembly constituencies, elections are slated for December 19. (Indian Express.)
Himachal Pradesh borders Jammu & Kashmir in the western Himalaya.
When the election results are known, I will post them in a comment, an excerpt of which will then appear on the right sidebar.
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- Both parties contested all 68 seats in 2003. There is a state party, the Himachal Vikas Congress that contested 49 (and won 1, on 5.9% of the statewide vote). No other party contested 30. This is significant, as it means that most districts featured something close to a straight fight between the two main national parties. So, while small, the state is something of a bellwether. There were also 110 independents, 6 of whom won; they combined for 12.6% of the statewide vote, and some might have been ‘spoilers’ in specific races. The electoral data cited here are based on the Statistical Report available from the Election Commission of India. [↩]
The election result will probaly be a hung parliament with the independents holding the balance of power. The question is who will be the largest party in the assembly.
If the Congress wins the most seats, the independents could ally with the BJP to deny it a majority or the reverse could happen. That could be very interesting.
How offen does it happen when the second largest party forms government with the support of others?
In India, should the country explore a two round balloting to insure a candidate has an absolute majority, that would make elections much more expensive.
Or would it be rise to look into preferential voting STV in one member districts. The country has low literacy and numeracy. That system could not be used unless it is an optional ranking system. I know India’s electoral system is design for illiterates.
So if there was electoral reform in India, Is India ripe for electoral reform? It has reverse plurality elections, but no electoral reform movement. Why? What electoral systems could be used in a country with low literacy and numeracy?
Of course India uses STV to elected it’s Senate and President as well albeit indirectly.
Seed planted by Suaprazzodi — 28 December 2007 @ 05:02
The BJP won in Himachal: at least 38 of 68 seats, thereby nearly doubling its total. The Congress evidently will have only 23 or 24.
Seed planted by MSS — 30 December 2007 @ 21:08
In federal elections, the relevant actor is the bloc, not the individual party. The NDA (BJP-led pre-electoral alliance) won a majority of seats in 1999, on around 39% of the votes. The BJP accounted for around 24%, against the Congress’s 28%. So, while the 1999 election looks like a reversed plurality, it really was not, as the election was fought in most districts as NDA vs. Congress. By the standard, the NDA trounced Congress, which did not yet have a pre-election alliance. (That election taught the Congress quite a lesson in alliance-making!)
The NDA probably could win a majority again, though I agree that a second UPA minority government supported by the Left (like the current one) and various non-bloc parties is possible, in the event the NDA falls short of a majority.
The current government rests on a reversed plurality, barely. The NDA in 2004 won 36.6% of the votes but 33.9% of the seats. The UPA (Congress-led pre-electoral alliance) won 35.4% of the votes, and 40.2% of the seats. It formed a minority government, with the Left Front providing explicit support on confidence and supply (and a Coordination Committee in which to work out differences with the cabinet). The Left holds 10.9% of the seats on 7.7% of votes.
Thus the governing and support parties collectively hold just over half the seats on about 43% of the votes.
Because the UPA did not exist in 1999, the NDA was not facing a united an opposition in 1999 in as many districts as was the case in 2004 or would be in the next election. The UPA could complicate the NDA’s ability to win a majority in a new election. On the other hand, the way things are going, the UPA may be anything but united by the time the next election is held.
Seed planted by MSS — 30 December 2007 @ 21:30