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Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

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  • 27 December 2007

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Asia: Central & South/S.W.; VOTES

    Vinod Sharma, in the Hindustan Times:

    Pakistan without Benazir is like India without Indira. The comparison isn’t out of place. In an interview some years ago to a house journal of the London School of Economics, she named three role models — father Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Indira Gandhi and the Joan of Arc.

    It remains to be seen whether Pakistan’s best known dynasty would, like the Gandhi family, have a scion goaded into public life. For the present however, the January 8 elections have become purposeless. To the many tragic similarities between the Bhuttos and the Gandhis, one more has got added. Like Benazir, Rajiv Gandhi too was killed by a suicide bomber while campaigning for his party in 1991.

    And on the likely motives for the killing:

    As a woman in politics, Benazir was forever the target of the Islamic fringe. What made her a greater anathema was her proximity to the US. Former state department official Richard Armitage saw perhaps the writing on the wall when he cautioned Washington against doing anything that made Benazir look like “America’s girl.”

    Without my intending to point any fingers–I certainly do not know who did this–I find even more chillingly compelling the remarks by Amit Baruah, also in the HT:

    The foot soldiers of Pakistan’s state-spawned Bhindranwales1 have snuffed out the life of Benazir Bhutto. The spectre of extremism, haunting Pakistan since it began the jihad against the Soviet Union in 1980, has taken away the leader of the only real political party in the country. …

    Far from turning Pakistan away from the politics of Islamist extremism, General Musharraf’s policies of “enlightened moderation”, a case of one step forward two steps back, have firmly entrenched the jihadis in the country’s politics.

    Yes, Musharraf arrested many Al Qaeda men at the behest of the US after 9/11. But his men didn’t have their hearts in the job. They didn’t believe in it.

    …Benazir was more dangerous to the jihadis than Musharraf. She was a political leader who could fight the battle of ideas, who could tell people why the jihadis were not their friends. That’s why she had to be killed.

    It’s possible that the days ahead will be full of disaster and turmoil for Pakistan. The meaningless elections of January 8 may be cancelled; the army may again say that it needs more powers to maintain law and order and state stability. But more of the same is not going to help.

    Indeed, the scheduled elections do look “purposeless” and “meaningless” now.

    Outside of Pakistan, the US government is one of biggest losers here. It has placed almost all its bets on General Musharraf getting himself elected2 “civilian” president (mission accomplished3), and on Bhutto becoming the face of “democratized” Pakistan. So much for the second part of the plan.
    ______

    1. The term is a reference to a Punjabi militant killed in 1984. []
    2. By an electoral college made up of the national and state assemblies that were elected under dubious elections about three year’s into Musharraf’s military government, in 2002. []
    3. With a little help from the “emergency” firing of supreme court justices who somehow concluded that their job was to uphold the constitution rather than the Bush-Musharraf plan. []

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (3)


    3 ideas sprouting »

    1. Pardon my presumption, but am I wrong to wonder why a blog devoted to voting systems has never mentioned that Musharraf was a “wrong-winner” in the 2002 parliamentary election? Bhutto’s PPPP won 28.42% of the votes against Musharraf’s PML(QA)’s 26.63%, yet the PML(QA) won 33.82% of the general seats compared with 23.16% for the PPPP.

      (After the 60 seats for women and 10 for non-Muslims were added in proportion to the general seats won by parties in 2002, the PML(QA) had 34.50% of the 342 seats and the PPPP had 23.39% of them. Still a wrong-winner.)

      Seed planted by Wilfred Day — 30 December 2007 @ 03:31

    2. The elections have been delayed until 18 February.

      The cynic in me says the decisions was taken because the riots have destroyed the materials the government was going to use in order to steal the elections. Barnett Rubin seems to agree. He also notes that the situation on the ground is, according to some contacts, much worse than news reports reaching the west indicate: “The country’s infrastructure is under severe stress… There has been massive damage to the country’s rail network. Fuel is in short supply, and the shortages are likely to get worse. The stock market and the currency are both crashing. Government ministers are charging “foreign elements” (i.e. India) with organizing the riots, a useful excuse for martial law.”

      Seed planted by MSS — 02 January 2008 @ 17:11

    3. Barnett Rubin has posted a summary of the report alleging election rigging that Benazir Bhutto was preparing to give a US Congressional delegation on the day she was murdered.

      Seed planted by MSS — 03 January 2008 @ 19:22

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