(Some updates below)
The two parties that jointly rule in the current German federal government competed against each other in two state assembly elections Sunday, Hesse and Lower Saxony.
In Hesse, the Christian Democratic party of the federal Chancellor (PM), Angela Merkel, suffered a major blow, dropping from 49% in 2003 to 36.5% today, according to exit polls. The other federal co-governing party, the Social Democrats, won 37%. (Yes, another super-close election!) The race for third place, between two parties that would each be the preferred partner of one of the main parties, is also close. It appears the Free Democrats are on around 9% and the Greens around 8%. Whether either potential coalition has garnered a majority of seats will depend, in part, on whether the Left party clears the 5% threshold. If it does, the state might end of up with a grand coalition mirroring the federal one. If it does not, the wasted votes could put one of blocs over the 50% mark in the state assembly.
The Christian Democrats in Hesse campaigned on tough-on-crime and anti-immigrant themes. The Social Democrats, according to a report I saw Friday on DW-TV (via Link TV), focused on the national minimum wage. I emphasize “national” because it is telling about how nationalized German politics is, despite the federal system, that a state election campaign would evidently turn on a national policy matter. (Crime and immigration, on the other hand, could be seen as partly national and partly local.)
Meanwhile, in Lower Saxony, the Christian Democrats also did rather poorly, compared to 2003: 43%, down from 48%. But, along with their current partner, the Free Democrats, they will retain control of the government. The Social Democrats likewise did poorly in Lower Saxony: 30% (previously 33%), which DW calls the party’s second worst showing in state elections in recent years.
The Left also is on the cusp of the threshold in Lower Saxony. In either state, it would be a first: The Left party did not exist in 2003; as the (small s, small d) social-democratic faction had not yet broken off from the right-drifting Social Democratic Party and joined up with the Party of Democratic Socialism. The latter was competitive mainly in the eastern states it formerly ruled.
Federal elections are not due until September, 2009, but these state elections will be much interpreted for whatever clues they may hold for national politics.
Much more at EuroTrib, where it is reported that the Hesse official result was:
CDU 42
SPD 42
FDP 11
Greens 9
Leftists 6
Majority: 56, hence possible:
CDU+SPD=84
SPD+Greens+FDP=62
SPD+Greens+Leftists=57
(The latter is unlikely, though some chance of a Left-supported minority government.)
Note: I changed the title, as whether the result in Hesse is a setback to Merkel herself is very much debatable. The CDU leader in Hesse is considered a rival to Merkel. One suspects she is not too sad, really. On the other hand, the big gains by both the SPD and the Left can’t cheer her up too much.
The SPD in Hesse had said before the election: no to a grand coalition, and no to a government relying on Left Party support.
One of those statements will have to be inoperative.
Christian Democrat Premier Roland Koch’s campaign was a disgrace. Koch riled immigrant groups, the Jewish community and Germany’s left-wing voters and politicians with calls for deportation of “criminal foreigners” and an end to “multicultural” coddling of immigrants. A brutal pre-Christmas attack on a German pensioner by two young immigrants on a Munich subway train prompted Koch to seize on juvenile crime as the mainstay of his re-election campaign. However, Koch’s campaign seems to have backfired. Just a few months ago, Koch was expected to secure re-election with ease. Instead he dropped 12 percent.
Will the SPD dare reward such a defeat by sharing power with the CDU, and letting them keep the prime ministership just because they got 3,595 more votes, or 0.13% of the votes, although they tied in seats? Will everyone ignore the fact that the three left parties have four more seats than the two right parties? Will such centrism stem the flow of left voters from the SPD to the Left Party?
But on the other hand, can the SPD rely on a mixed bag of six unknown new deputies of a new party: two ex-communists, two ex-SPD, one non-party, and one from a municipal cross-party left alliance?
Seed planted by Wilfred Day — 30 January 2008 @ 06:37
Most interesting is the results for “Die Linke”. Until recently, the ex-communist PDS was a purely ex-DDR-phenomenon, but since it merged with Western left party WASG (lead by ex-SPD-leader Oskar Lafontaine), and renamed itself “Die Linke”, it’s breaking through in Western Germany. First only in Saarland, homeland of Lafontaine (federal elections of 2005), then in Bremen (2007), now also in these two Länder.
See http://www.election.de (in German)
Seed planted by Bancki — 30 January 2008 @ 06:46
The Greens have not yet ruled out a “Jamaica Coalition” (CDU/FDP/Green, black/yellow/green, the colours of the Jamaican flag). There is ample precedent: the capital of Hesse, Wiesbaden, is governed by a Jamaica coalition.
Germans take their coalitions seriously: this city of 275,000 is run pursuant to a 50-page five-year Jamaica Coalition Agreement 2006/2011 on behalf of 46 of the 81 council members: 29 CDU, 10 Greens, 7 FDP.
Seed planted by Wilfred Day — 30 January 2008 @ 16:00
Could an SPD-Green minority government work in Hesse?
After listing all the other unfeasible coalition options, the Frankfurt paper’s writer concludes:
“There remains only the attempt at a minority government.
“There are some Greens like Daniel Cohn-Bendit and Rupert Plottnitz who are calling for this, and also left Social Democrats such as former MP Horst Peter.
“It is considered imponderable how well such a government would work, which would have to manoevre from vote to vote.
“But former premier Holger Börner (SPD) showed that it can work.”
Until 1982 Hesse had an SPD-FDP coalition government. In 1982 the FDP had fallen below the 5% threshold, and at the same time the Greens had entered the House for the first time, holding the balance of power. They were as taboo then as the Left Party is now; another election followed in 1983, when the FDP returned to the House but as an opposition party.
After a transitional period, in June 1984 Börner formed a minority SPD government tolerated by the Greens. In October 1985 this finally became a coalition agreement with the Greens, the first red-green coalition ever anywhere in Germany. Joschka Fischer then became Minister for the Environment and Energy in Börner’s cabinet.
But it’s not a comfortable precedent for the SPD. The coalition eventually collapsed because of local Green insistence on an immediate stop to atomic power and their rejection of a partial license for the Alkem nuclear plant in Hanau. The following elections in April 1987 ended with a victory for the CDU and FDP.
Seed planted by Wilfred Day — 03 February 2008 @ 00:41