Update: Apparently this ad is airing during the Super Bowl in some states. Brief and brilliant.
From the Gallup daily tracking poll.1
Note that both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton appear to have gained since John Edwards dropped out on the 30th, although Obama was evidently gaining at the expense of Clinton throughout the preceding week. And it is possible that Edwards himself had already begun slipping before he dropped out.2
It seems to me that if you are one of those who thinks (1) the next President should not be a Republican, and (2) the next President should not be a Clinton, or even just that the next President is less likely to be a Democrat if the nominee is a Clinton, it is pretty clear what to do. In California, you may vote in the Democratic primary if you are registered independent (or ‘decline to state,’ as it is known here). The same is true in some other states.3 And in some–especially in many southern states–there is no registration by party, meaning any voter may request the Democratic party ballot and vote for Obama.
F&V does not endorse candidates. But this contest is pretty close and this planting is pretty close to an endorsement…
(Hat tip to PolySigh for the graphic.)
- See Mark Blumenthal’s explanation of this poll, which is based on 1,000 interviews each night. [↩]
- But see Joffré’s comment, responding to a somewhat sloppy wording of my original point, and adding a good point of his own. [↩]
- See Phil Klinkner’s post at PolySigh for a good rundown of the open/closed status of each state’s ‘Super Tuesday’ contest, and the NY Times for details on delegate allocation rules. [↩]
I don’t think it’s quite accurate to say that Edwards was slipping before dropping out. Gallup uses a three day rolling sample, and the last three day period with Edwards in it is the one where he pulls 12%. His losses of 4% in the other two days are simply the result of the rolling sample advancing, dropping days with Edwards still in the race and replacing them with days from after he dropped out.
Seed planted by Joffré — 03 February 2008 @ 22:23
Hey Matt,
It’s Sunday eve. I’ve perused the latest polls and O is surging in most states. I can now say that this may be a photo finish for delegates! If so, H might be toast. She is the proverbial team with the big lead that barely hangs on!
Seed planted by Gabe — 04 February 2008 @ 02:37
A reminder to those US citizens outside the United States: You can still vote in the Super Tuesday primaries!
It’s certainly too late to register with your state if you haven’t already. But if you want to vote in the Democratic primary, you can still register with Democrats Abroad and vote electronically.
Seed planted by Vasi — 05 February 2008 @ 04:06
Off to vote!
I should be unhappy and frustrated. There were eight candidates at the start, and the two remaining competitive candidates were my fifth and eighth choices. Yet I am excited. I am about to go cast a vote that I feel is both sincere and will count, in a way in which few votes I have ever cast in my life have counted.
Scion grafted by Fruits and Votes — 05 February 2008 @ 16:35
John Edwards >> Barack Obama
The endorsement speech by Edwards was perfect. Like Obama, Edwards stressed the importance of making the country live up to its claims of greatness, rather than taking that greatness as given.
Scion grafted by Fruits and Votes — 15 May 2008 @ 20:54