In an election widely seen beforehand as not at all suspenseful, things got pretty interesting for the long-ruling Barisan National.
Via ABC:
Malaysia’s ruling party is facing its biggest electoral debacle after the opposition claimed wins in five of 13 states in yesterday’s poll, putting the Prime Minister’s political future at risk.
The multi-racial National Front coalition did get at least a simple majority in parliament, the elections commission announced, and will form the government at the federal level. But the two-thirds majority in parliament it has held for most of its five-decade-long rule was in doubt.
Given FPTP, this sentence explains part of the shock:
The opposition parties worked closely together in this election under the guidance of former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, despite the fact that he is banned from politics.
Cooperation counts. So does timing. That ban on the former deputy PM was set to expire soon, which is the reason why the government called the election early, fearing Anwar, as a PM candidate, could lead the opposition to victory. Looks like a shrewd calculation.
The swing against the BN was quite substantial:
The opposition Islamist party PAS claimed shock victories in the northern heartland states of Kedah and Perak, and crushed the ruling coalition in the northeastern state of Kelantan, a PAS stronghold. The opposition was also gaining in Selangor state surrounding Kuala Lumpur, the state news agency Bernama said.
The BN is a pre-election coalition of several ethnic parties (see my previous overview). I wonder if their sense of shared fate–honed by years in power with two-thirds majorities–is strong enough to keep them together given the shifts in this election.
___
Thanks to Alan for a tip about this result, earlier in the thread on today’s Spanish election.
Update from the ABC:
Somewhat of a toss-up if losing the 2/3 majority in the Dewan Rakyat (lower house) or the 5 states will hurt the Abdullah governemnt (and Abdullah’s long-term career prospects) more.
Seed planted by Alan — 09 March 2008 @ 02:52
Is this the first time BN lost a 2/3rds majority in Malaysia’s parliament? The opposition won 5 states out of 13. This is a landmark. It looks like UMNO and BN are in decline. It would be really interesting to see what happens next.
Is Malaysia moving to a 2 party system or is it the end of one dominant party and the rise of another like the Canadian province Alberta’s political dynasties? or something else entirely all together?
Malaysia always confused me. Can a country be a democracy and have one party win every single election? or is it one of those borderline cases?
Is BN dominance similar to PRI rule in Mexico before Fox became President?
Seed planted by Suaprazzodi — 09 March 2008 @ 04:34
A political scientist from the University of Melbourne comments on the result:
The numbers in the Dewan Rakyat (lower house) are BN 137, opposition parties 82, with 3 undecided. The Dewan Negara (upper house) is not a significant body and 40 of its 72 members are appointed by the PM. In this election the blogosphere became a serious rival to the BN-dominated traditional media and at least one blogger has won election. Oh, and the former prime minister is less than impressed:
Seed planted by Alan — 09 March 2008 @ 14:15
Yet another ABC link, interesting because the audio gives some idea of the atmosphere in the capital, Kuala Lumpur.
Note, Anwar Ibrahim, the unofficial opposition leader, was formerly the deputy prime minister in the Mahathir government until Mahathir had him convicted of sodomy and corruption in proceedings now shown to have been rigged. Those convictions ground Anwar’s current disqualification from politics, a disqualification that expires in April.
BN deputy prime ministers succeed to the prime minsitership without a party election, which is what Mahathir is speaking about when he says he appointed Abdullah Badawi, the current prime minister.
Seed planted by Alan — 09 March 2008 @ 22:05