See Pew’s latest report on party identification in the USA. It contains not only great news for those who want to see the Republican party punished electorally, but also lots of terrific graphics at national and state level, with trends as far back as 2000.
The bottom line is that Democrats and “leaners” among self-identified nonpartisans now amount to 51% of the electorate. Republicans are only 27%, plus another 10% leaning.
Some of this is safe Democratic states getting more Democratic (39-21 compared to 38-28 in 2004), but by no means all of it. The “swing states” are also seeing a bigger Democratic advantage (38-27, compared to 35-33 in 2004) and one that is nearly identical to the national 2-party identification breakdown. Even the safe Republican states no longer are, as a group (33-33 now, though even in 2004 they were only 36-33). In Texas, the GOP lead in identification is now down to 33-30, and in North Carolina and Virginia, Democrats are now ahead (39-26 (!) and 32-28, respectively).
Obviously, “independents” can make a big difference to election outcomes, and many of the graphs offer a reminder that even in “safe” GOP states, their lead in declared party ID has not always been substantial. But all these trends, and others at the report, look awfully good for Democrats.
Meanwhile, Politico reports that the number of registered Republicans in California has dropped by 207,000 since October, 2006. The New Hampshire GOP has only $64,000 in cash on hand, 40% of what Democrats have. Politico says, “state Republican parties are struggling through troubled times, suffering from internal strife, poor fundraising, onerous debt, scandal or voting trends that are conspiring to relegate the local branches of the party to near-irrelevance.” Deservedly so.