THE CORE

Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

Perspectives on electoral systems, constitutional design, and policy around the world, based primarily on my research interests.

Also experiences with growing many varieties of fruit (always organic) and other personal interests. Please see the Mission Statement for more. (There is also an explanation of the banner.)

Other "planters" have been invited to contribute. Please check the "Planted by" line to see the author of the post you are reading.

Join the conversation. Comments are always open. Except, that is, when Word Press mysteriously shuts them down, which happens with distressing frequency.

Core principles:

Henry Droop on the "moderate non-partisan section"

Madison on "dangers from abroad" and "the fetters... on liberty"

The Head Orchardist's other sites:

PRESERVED FRUIT
orchard blocks
  • All
  • FRUITS
  • VOTES
  • wide open spaces
  • 31 March 2008

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Africa

    I will occasionally update in the comments.

    It would appear that, whatever the slow-to-come-in official results say, Mugabe and his party suffered a defeat of major proportions in Saturday’s presidential, legislative, and local elections. From The Independent:

    At least nine of Mr Mugabe’s politburo, his inner circle, were out of a job according to official results posted at polling stations in their own constituencies.

    As evidence emerged of what appeared to be a landslide for opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, Zimbabwe’s electoral commission – Mugabe placemen all – were hiding out in the capital, refusing to release results of the presidential poll.

    What nobody could stop were independently verified, lawfully reported parliamentary and senate results as the count finished at each of the 9,000 polling stations nationwide. And the early results were stunning.

    Provisional findings, leaked to The Independent last night by a senior source at the electoral commission, indicated that Mr Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change had taken 191 of 210 parliamentary seats, with the remainder split between the ruling Zanu-PF and the smaller MDC faction backing the ruling party defector Simba Makoni.

    Were those results to be reflected in the presidential contest, as expected, it would deliver a resounding first round victory to Mr Tsvangirai,1 a former union leader, and bring down the curtain on the only president Zimbabwe has ever known.

    My emphasis. For the moment at least, that there was an election is forgotten, at least if one were to rely on state media.

    Throughout the day, state television ignored the most important election since independence in 1980, broadcasting a bizarre mixture of cartoons, church sermons and 1970s football matches.

    The entire story is quite worth a read.

    See also The Democratic Piece:

    The Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) released a press statement this afternoon with the results of its Sample Based Observation… [that] show opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC in the lead with 49.4% of the vote, coming out ahead of 28-year ruler Robert Mugabe with 41.8%. Simba Makoni, a recent challenger within Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party, comes in a distant third with 8.2%.

    _______

    1. The presidency is elected by two-round majority, though legislative seats are elected by first past the post. []

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (10)


    PoliBlog grafted Elections in Zimbabwe

    10 ideas sprouting »

    1. Wow–I was honestly only paying semi-attention, as I assumed that he would cook the books.

      Amazing!

      Seed planted by Steven Taylor — 31 March 2008 @ 14:37

    2. Well, I think his election commissioners are still in the “kitchen.” But their concoction could blow up on the old man.

      Seed planted by MSS — 31 March 2008 @ 14:47

    3. All Africa has an update on the “cooking” as well as what the opposition parties are claiming was the “real” result:

      President Robert Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party are about to announce victory for Mugabe in the parliamentary and presidential elections, according to unofficial results leaked from the ZANU-PF and Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, ZEC, command centres.

      It then says that sources within the ZEC say:

      Mugabe clearly lost the election to his opposition rival Morgan Tsvangirai, polling only 20 per cent of the vote. He is also said to trail Simba Makoni who garnered 28 per cent.

      Tsvangirai is said to be leading but just failed to get the requisite 50 per cent plus one vote. According to ZANU-PF sources at the collation centre, ZEC is about to announce that the ruling party won by 111 seats, with some rural constituencies recording huge victories for Mugabe.

      Seed planted by MSS — 31 March 2008 @ 16:32

    4. Does Mugabe have an escape plan?

      A former New Zealand High Commissioner to Zimbabwe believes Robert Mugabe will have prepared an escape plan if he loses power…

      Chris Laidlaw has been a Commonwealth observer of the previous three elections in Zimbabwe.

      Mr Laidlaw says Mr Mugabe has done everything he can to rig the vote, but there may have been an internal revolt by previously loyal officials.

      He says Mr Mugabe will probably have to leave Zimbabwe.

      Mr Laidlaw says if Mr Mugabe loses, it is not clear who will be in a position to lead Zimbabwe.

      The winner of the election, perhaps?

      Seed planted by MSS — 31 March 2008 @ 16:36

    5. I would be abandoning the high tradition of pedants everywhere if I did not point out that Mugabe is not the only president Zimbabwe has known. Zimbabwe’s first president was the unfortunate Canaan Banana who was the ceremonial president until 1987 when Mugabe moved from the prime ministership to the presidency.

      Seed planted by Alan — 31 March 2008 @ 18:30

    6. Wow, who could ever forget Canaan Banana!

      Seed planted by MSS — 31 March 2008 @ 18:39

    7. Latest (early 1 April in Harare) from The Independent:

      Senior figures in Zimbabwe’s opposition were in hiding last night as a tremendous power struggle played out in the wake of weekend elections…

      A cabal of Mr Mugabe’s top aides, including six cabinet ministers, the Vice-President and a former intelligence chief, have lost their “safe” seats already, prompting talk of an opposition landslide…

      Mr Tsvangirai, along with his fellow presidential challenger Simba Makoni, met security chiefs in Harare late on Sunday night, according to unnamed officials close to the meeting. Despite optimism that a deal would be reached involving immunity for Mr Mugabe and a lengthy transition period in which government chiefs would hold on to their jobs, there was no agreement.

      The leaders of the armed forces, police and prison service warned prior to the elections that they would refuse to recognise an opposition victory. With neither Mr Tsvangirai nor Mr Mugabe seen in public since Saturday, the country has been gripped by fear and uncertainty.

      Mr Mugabe had, according to one rumour, left the country, but there has been no independent confirmation of this.

      On the trickle of official results:

      With fewer than 40 of the 210 constituencies announced there were already serious problems emerging. Two constituencies awarded to Zanu-PF contradict results taken from the actual polling stations in those areas and seen by The Independent.

      For the first time this year all results have been published at individual polling stations, so any poll numbers announced centrally that don’t add up will be identifiable. The Mugabe regime insisted on tallying presidential votes at one central location in a bid to circumvent this problem, but photographs of results at individual polling stations have been collected by independent observers and the MDC in case of fraud.

      …The head of the electoral commission is alleged to have attempted to flee the country on Sunday after being given contradictory instructions from the government and generals.

      The article includes a list of the defeated members of Mugabe’s inner circle, including Joyce “Spill Blood” Mujuru.

      Seed planted by MSS — 31 March 2008 @ 19:41

    8. > ‘six cabinet ministers, the Vice-President… have lost their “safe” seats already’

      I believe Kenya has, or had, a similar system – a “pure” Presidential system except that Ministers (and VP) are required, not forbidden, to hold seats as elected members of the legislature.

      Seed planted by Tom Round — 31 March 2008 @ 20:37

    9. Elections in Zimbabwe

      This weekend, Zimbabwe had presidential and legislative elections. I must confess, that despite a long-standing interest in the case, I did not pay too much attention to the results as they started coming out on Monday, as I assumed (with cause) that Robert Mugabe (perpetrator of one of the most remarkable destructions of a national economy that had nothing to do with military invasion that I can think of) would cook the books, making the election a moot process. And, indeed, that may yet be the outcome.

      Scion grafted by PoliBlog — 01 April 2008 @ 09:28

    10. Wow, who could ever forget Canaan Banana!

      Well, Prince Philip did once ask him if he’d come to the UK alone or in a bunch.

      Seed planted by Jonathan Edelstein — 05 April 2008 @ 00:48

    RSS feed for comments on this post.

    TrackBacks

    To graft a scion to this planting, please use the following URL:
    http://fruitsandvotes.com/blog/wp-trackback.php?p=1624
    (Non-MT bloggers click here to send pings.)

    Grafted scions that are not compatible with this planting's stock will die or be pruned out by the Orchardist.

    About the comment form

    Please note that the name you enter below and the first several words of your comment will appear on the right sidebar of the blog's front page, under "Propagation." New propagators might want to look at the comment policy.

    Please do not enter long URLs into the seedbed. Either mark them up using html hyperlinks or convert them to a "tiny URL." Thank you!

    Seedbed

    The soil is ready for planting:

    `

    FRUIT FEEDS
    PROPAGATION
    Recent comments.

  • BC election 2013 (16)
    • Errol Cavit: How could the pollsters be so wrong? A brief review by David Farrar (NZ pollster) on his Kiwiblog
    • MSS: Yes, the Saskatchewan Party is a merger of the provincial Liberals and Conservatives. I saw one editorial on the BC Liberals possible...
    • Chris: And while I’m not sure, the Saskatchewan Party may have had ‘unite the right’ ideas in it’s establishment (this...
    • Chris: It wouldn’t be unprecedented to see a name change away from a federally.affil iated name. The Yukon PC Party changed its name to the...
  • Is MMP in Ireland’s future? (2)
    • Suaprazzodi: That would be very said if Ireland abandon STV for an MMP system. Why would Ireland move from MMP to STV especially if the list...
    • Tom Round: The Irish don’t like getting a choice among different candidates of the same party?! Like most other proposals to change...
  • sede vacante (53)
    • Alan: Benedict XVI was not a particularly good legislature*, although he was better than his predecessor. The palace gave the Queensland government...
    • Tom Round: Err, either “2/3̷ 0;. 33.4%” or “3/4̷ 0; 25%” but either way you get my drift. A large minority has the...
    • Tom Round: Hmm, 1,040,000 results but give the Google gophers time… Note that super-majority thresholds for election are actually rare for...
    • Tom Round: Organisations often adopt an absolute two-thirds requirement (ie, not an initial threshold that reduces over time, as in Italian...
  • Do UK elections now allow fusion candidacies? (3)
    • Tom Round: Yeah, I was thinking of the NY precedent where the Liberal Party would endorse the Democrat and the Conservative Party would put the...
    • MSS: Interesting points, Tom. As you may know, New York has a “fusion&# 8221; FPTP system whereby parties can tell how many votes they...
    • Tom Round: The “Coupon Election” of 1918 was a similar arrangement (though it originated top-down, with “coupons& #8221; or...
  • Does STV have anything to do with absence of “free votes” in Ireland? (14)
    • Tom Round: Yes, JD, I was thinking “primarie s” in the original sense. Though you’re right that in the last decade or two, the...
  • CROSS-POLLINATION

    FRUITS

    morn_blms_corralito.jpg

    The Fruit Blog (Fruit & fruit breeding)
    Daley's Fruit Tree Blog
    Orchards Forever
    The Orchard Keeper
    The Ethicurean
    The Jew and the Carrot
    Small farms ("real people & real food")
    Life begins at 30 (Farmers markets, etc.)
    Banana
    Festival of Trees
    Rare Fruit News Online
    Cloudforest Cafe


    VOTES

    bulgaria_protest copy

    Comparative democracy

    Psephos (Adam Carr's data archive)
    Electoral Panorama
    World Elections
    African Elections Database
    M. Herrera's Electoral Calendar
    Electoral Geography (Data archive)
    Michael Gallagher's data archive
    Election Finance (Blog, data archive)
    IFES
    Election Law (Rick Hasen)
    VoteLaw (Edward Still)
    Ballot Access News

    Electoral and Political Reform

    The FairVote Blog (US)
    Make my vote count (UK)
    Wilf Day (Canada)
    democraticSPACE (Canada)
    Citizens Assembly Blog (dormant)


    POLITOLOGY

    Blogs of political analysis

    PoliBlog
    Arms and Influence (dormant)
    Outside the Beltway
    Political Science Weblog (abstracts)
    Ideological Cartography (Adam Bonica)
    Frontloading HQ (Josh Putnam)
    FiveThirtyEight
    Vote View (Keith Poole)
    The Monkey Cage
    A Plain Blog About Politics (Jonathan Bernstein)
    Political Arithmetik (dormant)
    Polls & Votes
    Pollster.com
    Polysigh
    Reflective Pundit
    Rustbelt Intellectual
    Simon Jackman
    The semi-presidential one
    Josep Colomer
    Chapel Hill Treehouse (dormant)
    Political Behavior (dormant)
    Dart-Throwing Chimp
    Countries at the Crossroads (Freedom House blog)
    Jacob T. Levy

    REGIONAL ANALYSIS

    Canada

    The Mace
    ThreeHundredEight
    Crawl Across the Ocean
    Idealistic Pragmatist

    Europe

    Centre for European Politics
    Dr Sean's Diary
    A Fistful of Euros
    Political Reform (Ireland)
    UK Polling Report
    British Politics & Policy (LSE)

    Latin America

    Bloggings by boz
    Two Weeks Notice

    S.W. Asia & E. Mediterranean & N. Africa

    Informed Comment Global Affairs
    Lisa Goldman
    Michael J. Totten
    Yaacov Lozowick
    Marc Lynch (@FP)
    Ahwa Talk

    Africa

    La Constitution en Afrique

    E. Asia

    Frozen Garlic (Taiwan elections)

    New Zealand

    Kiwiblog
    No Right Turn

    OTHER SOCIAL SCIENCE BLOGS

    Crooked Timber
    Statistical Modeling
    Social Science Statistics
    Cold Spring Shops
    Marginal Revolution
    Brad DeLong
    Greg Mankiw

    SUN & MOON

    CURRENT MOON

    NEWS

    ABC

    BBC

    CBC

    Democracy Now!

    Deutsche Welle

    El Tiempo

    Guardian

    Haaretz

    Hindustan Times

    The Independent

    Irish Times

    NZ Stuff

    RFE/RL

    ORGANIZATIONS

    About/disclaimer

    California Rare Fruit Growers

    Center for Voting and Democracy

    Californians for Electoral Reform

    Society for American Baseball Research

    Link TV

    SCION EXCHANGE

    HARVESTS
    ORCHARD SERVICES

    Powered by WordPress