Propagation: Seeds & scions (13)

Fruits and Votes grafted Italian electoral system performance, 2008 vs. 2006
The Democratic Piece grafted Toward a more stable Italian left?
PoliBlog grafted C-SPAN Would Get Higher Ratings if More US Politicians Were Like This…

13 ideas sprouting »

1. I’ve been to a few talks here in DC about the elections. Most are predicting a Berlusconi win. The bigger question is whether Casini’s UDC will be kingmaker or Veltroni and Berlusconi will go into grand coalition and amend the electoral law.

   One Brookings panelist noted yesterday how Veltroni’s exclusion of the “far” left from his coalition is a milestone in Italian politics. Leftist coalitions traditionally have been built on some compromise between the “far” and moderate wings. If this is an enduring change to the Italian party system, it’ll be interesting to look at more closely.

   Others were talking about the shift of campaign emphasis from party ID to the charisma of the three front-runners (Casini, Berlusconi, Veltroni).

   Issues came up. Foreign policy off the table – less Iraq, more Afghanistan, regardless of who’s in charge. The economy is big: unemployment, repealing the “first home” tax, reform, and so forth.

   In the interest of shameless (but relevant) self-promotion, here are some photos I took of the campaign last month.

   Seed planted by Jack — 11 April 2008 @ 15:09

2. Should the form of electoral system be protected by being incorporated in the constitution? Of course it wouldn’t stop manipulation, but it would make the kind of opportunism that led to Italy’s bizarre system possible.

   Is there any significant prospect of eliminating the arbitrary age limits on voting for (let alone being) Senators? I wonder too at the equal bicameralism. Its virtually unique in a parliamentary system, isn’t it?

   Seed planted by Dermot — 11 April 2008 @ 17:48

3. Absolutely, NOT! The idea to “constitutionalize” electoral law is, at least in Italy, foolish. Who, in that unlucky case, will be able to change a awkful electoral system?! Italian political system needs flexibility in order to change its anachronistic political institutions and mechanisms, not fossilization!
   By the way, Berlsuconi, fifth time candidate Prime Minister, 72 years-old, is going to win easily, in both congruent Chambers, perhaps (and plainly) with more difficulties and less margine of victory at the Senate. Therefore, nothing new under italian sun…

   Seed planted by Leonardo — 11 April 2008 @ 19:16

4. C-SPAN Would Get Higher Ratings if More US Politicians Were Like This…

   Via Reuters: Porn star unveils campaign weapon-her bottom…

   Scion grafted by PoliBlog — 12 April 2008 @ 11:57

5. But Leonardo, that is precisely the point-no system is perfect, but a system that wins consensus could be more readily protected from manipulation by simple majorities trying to protect themselves from popular will by being enshrined in the constitution. Particularly because Italian politics can be so cynical.

   Seed planted by Dermot — 12 April 2008 @ 19:23

6. Two elections, same electoral system, and not only different but extremely divergent electoral results. Before this election, we had the most fragmented Parliament of the Italian Republic; after this election (most probably) the least fragmented one. What about the theory? What influences what? Electoral systems (or “containers”) matter but, at least in this case, “content” matters enormously more!

   Seed planted by Marco — 15 April 2008 @ 00:08

7. No Communists elected to either chamber – first time since 1946.

   Seed planted by Tom Round — 15 April 2008 @ 07:14

8. With the caveat that I have yet to look closely at the results, I would point out that a reduction in the number of parties is what we would expect given the majoritarian nature of the system now used for a second time.

   Seed planted by MSS — 15 April 2008 @ 12:27

9. If Tom is right about no communists being elected, Veltroni’s decision to exclude them from the center-left apparentement was important.

   Late last week, a speaker at Brookings was suggesting exactly this. That is, while incurring a short-term electoral cost by abandoning moderate/extreme left compromise in this round, the decision could turn out to be a bellwether for the Italian party system. If:

   1) the decision sticks,

   2) we are seeing strategic abandonment of extreme left for more moderate left parties,

   We might expect more stable center-left coalitions in the future.

   Something else I need to blog once the week’s coursework is done.

   Seed planted by Jack — 15 April 2008 @ 13:42

10. Toward a more stable Italian left?

    There is reason to believe we are witnessing a seismic shift in the Italian party system. The next time a center-left coalition comes to power, it has a good shot at finishing its term.

    Scion grafted by The Democratic Piece — 15 April 2008 @ 14:46

11. Looking at the results, it appears that the UDC is the crucial component for any center-left win. Had the UDC tilted for Veltroni, the Pd might have outscored Berlusconi’s Pdl by a nose.

    Happy to say that Toscana, Emilia Romagna, Umbria and Le Marche went convincingly for the Pd.

    In Vento, shamefully the Lega Nord, in the Berlusconi’s coalition, outpolled El Berlusko’s Pdl itself.

    The South went for Pdl in a big way. They must appreciate his macho.

    Seed planted by Corenna — 15 April 2008 @ 14:57

12. I’m not really sure one can say that the UDC is crucial, since one can’t really sum the parties’ votes in this way. The radical left claims that the result would have been closer if Veltroni had included them in the coalition; but if he had done so, the PD would have had even greater difficulty in attracting moderate voters. Equally, had the UDC gone with the PD, it would have lost many former Communist voters (2 of 10) who switched to the PD in order not to waste their vote. UDC link ups at local level may work – that’s why Veltroni is suggesting that the UDC should support Rutelli in the Rome mayoral contest.

    Seed planted by Chris Hanretty — 17 April 2008 @ 13:01

13. Italian electoral system performance, 2008 vs. 2006

    It is really hard to overstate just how much this electoral system is majoritarian. It just looked less majoritarian in 2006 than it would in 2008. Italy’s electoral system is one of the strangest and most complex around. But in its second run, it produced a decisive result in both houses and the closest thing Italy has seen yet to the vaunted “two-party system.”

    Scion grafted by Fruits and Votes — 17 April 2008 @ 16:05

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