Propagation: Seeds & scions (5)

5 ideas sprouting »

1. It appears Lugo has defeated the candidate of the 60-year Colorado dynasty, but by only around 41-31. Yes, huge margin, but not much of a “mandate.” Congress was elected concurrently, and while the electoral tribunal does not seem to have congressional results yet, we can assume that the new president’s party will not have much more 40% of the seats in the Senate (and perhaps somewhat less than that, depending on the extent of ticket splitting). The Senate is elected by PR in a single 45-seat district. (Judging from the 2003 results, it appears there is a 2% threshold.)

   The 80-seat House of Deputies is elected by districted PR. Magnitudes range from 1 to 19, but only seven of the eighteen districts have more than three seats and just three elect seven or more each (according to the “bancas a eligir” tab on the first-linked site). Thus regional patterns will matter a lot to the outcome in that chamber.

   Seed planted by MSS — 21 April 2008 @ 13:59

2. Apparently, Lugo’s resignation as clergy was not accepted by the Vatican, so opponents are claiming his election violates Paraguayan law banning religious officials from holding political office. Meanwhile, Chavez et al are proclaiming Lugo as one of their ilk. He does have some policy reforms that smack of Bolivarianism, but it’s probably too early to label him a full-fledged Chavez ally.

   Seed planted by Tareq — 21 April 2008 @ 14:35

3. Very ironic that a law intended by anti-clericals to prevent “Vatican control” of Paraguayan affairs (by stipulating that a serving cleric can’t hold public office”) might potentially have the effect that the Vatican could – by announcing that “the dog ate” Lugo’s letter of resignation – effectively nullify the result of a Paraguayan election.

   Seed planted by Tom Round — 21 April 2008 @ 17:29

4. Re. congress, the following is from boz:

   Lugo is likely to face some tough times working with the new Paraguayan Congress, but the split in the Colorado Party may give him a working coalition.

   The 45 member Senate, according to one report, will have 18 seats for the Colorado Party, 16 for the Liberals, nine for Oviedo’s party and two supporters of Fadul, a minor center-right candidate. Those numbers may change as the results are clarified.

   The Liberals were the largest party within Lugo’s coalition and are considered “centrist.” It looks like none of Lugo’s smaller more “leftist” coalition parties made it into the Senate. This means he is coalition building starting with the most conservative of his supporters.

   The good news for Lugo is that the Colorado Party has already seemed to split into two factions…

   …While I haven’t seen an update on the House side, it is likely to be more fractured but also a bit more favorable to Lugo, with some of the smaller and ideologically closer parties having received seats.

   Seed planted by MSS — 28 April 2008 @ 18:54

5. Update: The Vatican has now accepted Lugo’s self-defrocking.

   Seed planted by Tom Round — 30 July 2008 @ 20:43

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