I heard on some radio news program this morning that the Democratic contest is ‘close.’
I guess it all depends on how one parses the term, close.
According to Real Clear Politics, in the ‘pledged’ delegates (those that are allocated based on primary-election votes or caucus participation), the counts would be:
That adds up to 3152 allocated thus far, and so by percentages:
I will grant that this lead is not a ‘landslide’ by any means. But, quite independent of any realism (or lack thereof) of catch-up scenarios, is a difference of almost 5 percentage points ‘close’?
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Outside The Beltway | OTB grafted Is Democratic Race ‘Close’?...
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No, and this was a big objection I took to much of the advocacy literature on Prop 77. One group even used 10 points as the cutoff for “competitive district.”
Even in historically 5-point districts, US House results are fairly predictable.
It’s beyond the scope of your post, but I don’t understand what fans of “competitiveness” really are after when advocating independent redistricting. I’m not sure they know either. Is it turnover? Less polarized legislatures? Or is it the ticket-splitting of a bygone era?
Seed planted by Jack — 21 May 2008 @ 23:44
Is Democratic Race ‘Close’?…
Mathew Shugart examines often-heard claims that the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is “close.” He looks at the pledge delegate counts and sees Obama leading Clinton 52.4 percent to 47.6 percent and concludes, “I will g…
Scion grafted by Outside The Beltway | OTB — 22 May 2008 @ 12:55