In an effort to maximize turnout, polls will be open till 10 p.m. tonight, Irish time, in Ireland’s referendum on the Lisbon EU Treaty. Ireland is the only EU country having a referendum on this treaty. The cynic might note that referenda have such a nasty habit of turning out contrary to the wishes of the elites who so carefully craft agreements that it is just too risky to submit such big issues to the masses. But the treaty needs unanimous ratification by signatories, so a failure in Ireland (where any constitutional change must be submitted to the electorate) would send everyone back to the drawing board yet again.
Polls have been divided on which side is ahead, and conventional wisdom evidently suggests that low turnout favors the no.
Full coverage will be available at The Irish Times.
An interesting line: “Privately, senior Irish government strategists admit that failure to ratify the treaty would be deeply embarrassing and a body blow to the credibility of Ireland in Europe.”
So the one chance the common people get to vote on it, and the real issue is whether the people can keep their credibility with the elite. Not the other way around.
James Burnham knew his stuff.
Seed planted by Aaron Armitage — 12 June 2008 @ 15:13
I don’t know, I would have thought the quote was more the political leadership talking about their own credibility with other European leaders, should the treaty be rejected.
Seed planted by Ian Moore — 12 June 2008 @ 15:31
One formal observation: If I read the Irish constitution correctly, “ordinary” referendums have a clause demanding that at least 1/3 of the electorate vote against the proposal put to the vote in order to defeat it. Constitutional referendums do not have such a clause – i.e. low turn-out cannot save a constitutional amendment.
Article 47 – http://tinyurl.com/5jdn5j
(Danish referendums, in case anybody wonder, are held under the rules of ordinary referendums – not the very tough rules of constitutional amendments)
Seed planted by Jacob Christensen — 13 June 2008 @ 10:48
Those “ordinary” referendums – I do not think there has ever been one, certainly not recently. Given the turn-out in referendums, it would be virtually impossible for such a vote to pass.
There was some talk a couple of years ago of holding one of those referendums on abortion legislation (not on an abortion related constitutional amendment), but it was so obvious that it would fail that the government decided not to bother.
Seed planted by Ian Moore — 13 June 2008 @ 18:22
Good reading on this from Henry (CT), who gives “all the serious reasons I can think of for why you might think the Irish were positively obliged to vote Yes, and why I don’t think that any of them hold.”
Seed planted by MSS — 18 June 2008 @ 16:27