Propagation: Seeds & scions (6)

6 ideas sprouting »

1. Surely a 0.7% drop in their vote share is within the polls’ margin of error?

   Seed planted by Ian Moore — 25 September 2008 @ 16:40

2. My “what happened” was directed to the seat projection, and why it changed so quickly. Yes, even that is only 1.95% of the total, but that seems like a lot for a barely changing vote projection. So it suggests either a swing in a few key seats, or a change of method.

   At any rate, it certainly is substantively notable given the importance of the 155 number. But they did not, as far as I know, note it, other than to update the numbers in the table atop their website. (Maybe elsewhere? I have not looked extensively.)

   Seed planted by MSS — 25 September 2008 @ 17:12

3. MSS, it’s not a change in method.

   Almost every seat projection algorithm I’ve seen for Canada is most sensitive in the 36-41% range.

   Each of those 1% changes in support translates to about 3% in closely-contested seats, which Canada usually has in abundance.

   In that light, democraticSPACE’s model is fairly typical, given a drop of 6 seats over 0.7% in voter support.

   What is interesting is that democraticSPACE is predicting, all other things equal, a much more efficient vote for the historically inefficient Conservatives.

   The Liberals, however, continue their famously efficient vote: 89 seats (29% seats) for 25% support. They appear to reap FPTP rewards even at a low level of support.

   The loser on vote efficiency is the historically-high Greens – which probably helps explain the efficiency fortunes of the Liberals and Conservatives.

   Seed planted by Ross Trusler — 26 September 2008 @ 03:46

4. Ross, thanks for that! And I agree about the vote-to-seat translation ‘efficiency’ and the likely impact of the Green vote on that in the FPTP context.

   Seed planted by MSS — 26 September 2008 @ 14:38

5. Don’t forget about the NDP, the traditional S/V ratio losers. Last election they earned 9% of the seats with 17% of the votes.

   Seed planted by Vasi — 26 September 2008 @ 21:29

6. I didn’t mention the NDP because in terms of S/V ratio, they appear to be doing the same as usual: awful. Only now, they have the Greens to make them feel better.

   According to Darryl Bricker (Ipsos), today’s polls show the Liberal vote ‘evaporating’, mostly in favour of the NDP. With the NDP only 5% behind the Liberals nationally, people immediately begin to speculate that the NDP could form the Official Opposition.

   Knowing historic NDP S/V ratios, that outcome is pretty unlikely, since they dictate that the tipping point be some distance above parity with the Liberals in the polls.

   So the question is: by what vote share margin do the NDP have to beat the Liberals to become the OO?

   I could have it backwards, of course. Because the NDP vote is more concentrated, with a Liberal drop of a few more percent (e.g. 19%), Liberal efficiency could go from surprisingly robust to dismal. It happened in the PC disaster of 1993 (2 seats for 18%). But if NDP support is too concentrated, they won’t surpass the Bloc to become the OO.

   And in Quebec of course, everything is backwards. There, the NDP support is generally thinner/broader, while the Liberal vote is highly concentrated.

   I mention this only because while the NDP is usually irrelevant in Quebec, they are actually beating the Liberals according to the latest polls. That is one thing this Canadian never thought he’d live to see.

   Seed planted by Ross Trusler — 26 September 2008 @ 23:04

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