It is evidently not a good time to be facing an election if you are a conservative (small or big c) party in North America. According to the projections at Democratic Space, the Canadian Conservatives are now hovering at barely over a third of the national vote. That is a fall from an estimated 37.8% on 28 September.
Thanks to the plurality electoral system and a divided set of center-left parties, the seat projections remain more favorable to the Conservatives. During this same period have fallen to just 130 (42.2%) from 142 (46.1%). The result would be a (de facto) “reelection” of the Conservative minority government.aa
If the party won 130 seats, it would be barely improved from where it was after the January, 2006, election, in which it won 124.
The Liberals have improved in the same time in the projected vote (from 23.5% to 26.2%) and seats (80 to 92). The other parties have changed little, although it is noteworthy that the Greens are now projected to beat the Bloc Quebecois in the national vote percentageaa Nonetheless, the Bloc will win around 49 seats and the Greens none, thanks to the way that the plurality electoral system rewards regional parties at the expense of parties with more dispersed support.
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