If you spend some quality time with Y-net’s interactive map (in Hebrew, color-coded by party if you zoom in), you could come pretty quickly to the conclusion that electoral reform would not make a large difference in the country’s party fragmentation. Even in the very unlikely event that a single-seat district system were plopped down in Israel, many of the smaller parties would remain quite viable. A more realistic reform, such as to a medium-sized district system, probably would not reduce the number of parties by much.
For instance, here are the largest few parties’ vote percentages in selected cities, listed more or less from north to south:
Kiryat Shmona: Likud 30, YB 22, Kadima 17
Katzrin (Golan): YB 28, Kadima 26, Likud 22
Tiberias: Likud 35, Shas 19, YB 16, Kadima 15
Nazareth: Hadash 52, Balad 23 –and about the same in Umm al-Fahm
Haifa: Kadima 28, Likud 20, YB 16, Labor 13
Ariel (deep in West Bank): Likud 45, YB 31
Tel Aviv-Yaffa: Kadima 34, Likud 19, Labor 15
Bnei Brak: UTJ 55, Shas 27, Likud 6
Rishon L’Tzion: Kadima 33, Likud 27, YB 14
Jerusalem: Likud 24, UTJ 19
Ashdod: YB 26, Likud 14, Kadima 16, Shas 15
Ashkelon: Likud 31, YB 27, Kadima 16
Sderot: Likud 33, YB 23, Shas 13, Kadima 12
Be’er Sheva: Likud 28, YB 25, Kadima 20
Eilat: Kadima 35, Likud 25, YB 15
(These communities differ widely in population, but only the first two, plus Ariel and Sderot, are under 25,000; Katzrin is quite small.)
Haaretz also has tool for looking at the Israeli vote by city or sector (in English), but most of its levels of aggregation are bigger than the Ynet tool. It does, however, show that Ra’am-Ta’al dominated the Bedouin communities, with 80%.
Strikingly, almost every party is the largest or second largest somewhere, including some that have less than 5% of the national vote. Certainly, there is no guarantee that all these would survive electoral reform. The largest party is not over 30% in many cases and one or both of the top two parties might be displaced by new alliances of currently trailing parties in any given region. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that any districted electoral system would significantly cut into Israel’s political fragmentation (although if the districts were small enough or if the threshold were raised significantly, it could certainly make for a lot of disproportionality) .
The one relatively large party that does not show up in the top two anywhere among the cities listed at Ynet is Labor. It runs third or lower everywhere, except the Kibbutz sector (shown at Haaretz).* So if the objective of electoral reform is to squeeze out Labor once and for all, it might be achievable. If the goal is to make a substantial dent in the country’s fragmentation, quite possibly not.
For the national vote and seat totals, see Electoral Panorama.
* Kibbutz sector: Labor 31, Kadima 31, Meretz 18. So the old Zionist ‘left’ survives somewhere as a force, at least. Meretz (3% nationally) also managed to get 8% in Tel Aviv.