In the on again, off again saga of the proposed referendum to lift the current two-successive-terms limit on the Colombian presidency, a conference-committee report on the measure has passed the Senate. See Steven Taylor for some comments and puzzlement, with which I am in complete agreement: How did the proposal get through at this late date? Of the many parties in incumbent Alvaro Uribe’s congressional coalition–which had seemed moribund a few week ago–some have already announced presidential candidates, and yet some of those same parties’ senators apparently voted in favor.
Today, El Tiempo notes that the conference report does not face as easy a passage through the House of Representatives. An ongoing Supreme Court case against 86 House members (in a chamber of 163 representatives) regarding potentially illegal inducements they might have accepted, complicates passage in that chamber. (In a terrific irony, one of the members of the most ‘uribista’ parties in the House is named Roy Barreras [Barriers]; it might be better if he were an opposition member, however!)
The story on the House notes:
Germán Vargas Lleras, candidato presidencial de Cambio Radical dijo que miembros de su partido han sido abordados de manera individual y colectiva para inducirlos a votar a favor del referendo.
[Germán Vargas Lleras, Radical Change presidential candidate said that his party members have been approached individually and collectively, to induce them to vote for the referendum.]
Three of the 21 members of his House caucus sided with Uribe in a previous vote in December.
The proposal still must pass each house and then go to a referendum. However, as noted before, the only real obstacle is the congress–or, now, the House. (Perhaps the courts yet could be an obstacle, as well.) It would be a very big surprise if voters either rejected the referendum, or voted to oust Uribe if he is on the ballot next May.
In other Colombian election news, three former mayors of Bogotá (known as The Three Tenors) have established a new political force, Confianza, and will run in the congressional elections of March and the presidential election either on their own, or in affiliation with an existing party (potentially Verde Opción Centro).
Interesting about Confianza and The Three Tenors.
Seed planted by Steven Taylor — 21 August 2009 @ 14:16
I remember reading several months ago (so this may have changed) that the referendum also needs 25% turnout to pass. That may be a harder hurdle for Uribe than getting the winning margin. It was in October ’03.
Seed planted by boz — 21 August 2009 @ 14:40
Boz – you’re right, 25% turnout, or about 7.2 million people. Uribe got ~7.3 million votes in his 2006 landslide first-round win, FWIW.
The Liberals and the Polo have been talking about organizing a “stay home – don’t vote” campaign, and since turnout has been barely 50% in the last few elections, it could conceivably work.
Seed planted by Mike — 21 August 2009 @ 15:30
I should have mentioned the turnout requirement on constitutional referenda. I suppose it could be an obstacle, but I would not count on it. The 2003 referendum narrowly missed the quorum (except on one question), but that was not about Uribe’s own tenure. Those were on a large package of political reforms that were incomprehensible to many voters, and in any case, the congress had just passed a major electoral-system reform of its own (which in some ways was more significant than what Uribe proposed).
This question, if it makes it to the ballot will be a single, clear issue: should the term limit be lifted. Given Uribe’s standing in the polls, I think it would be a surprise if it failed to get the necessary participation.
The outcome is certainly not as certain as I made it imply, however, so thank you for the comments.
Seed planted by MSS — 21 August 2009 @ 19:55
Jorge Londoño of PVOC and the Trio came out and announced that Mockus, Peñalosa and Lucho will be running under the PVOC label.
Today (Tuesday the 25th) is the big day for supporters of the referendo. This morning Partido de la U members have closed door meetings with Juan Manuel Santos who is trying to rally support for the referendum and determine how many votes from within that coalition he can count on. (I believe 31 is the magic number if the whole coalition votes in favor).
Then later today – circa 3pm Bogota time – the vote is expected to happen where the magic number will be 84 votes in order to get to the Constitutional Court veto-gate.
Matt, I agree with your overall line of questioning in that — with the credible threat of investigation by the Supreme Court looming over many MPs’ heads + the fact that elements of the “U” coalition already having selected pre-candidates — the probability of a “Si” vote is lower than it was a few months ago.
One must ask, what positive (or negative) incentives are being set forth for legislators who vote yes?
Seed planted by Maher — 25 August 2009 @ 12:33