A recent poll suggests that Germany’s Christian Democrats and Free Democrats could fall short of a joint majority after federal elections on 27 September.
The N24 TV poll shows their combined support at 48%, which could be just enough. In any case, it looks like a closer call than it has seemed till now. The poll also shows the combined center-left (SPD, Linke, and Greens) at 48%. However, it would be a total reversal of SPD promises if these parties joined up in a coalition at the federal level.
In Thuringia state, however–one of three sates to have gone to the polls in late August–a broad center-left coalition was perceived as likely immediately after the election. However, DW-TV reported today that a SPD-CDU grand coalition (mirroring the outgoing federal government) is now seen as more likely. (I get DW via Link TV, so no link of the hyper variety is available to the referenced news item.)
Isn’t the logic of the situation pointing to a CDU-CSU-FDP-Green coalition in the next decade?
German voters seem to like the CDU, or at least Merkel, but don’t want the various “free market” reforms a straight-up center right coalition would bring. Its hard to see a center-left coalition in power unless the SPD can patch things up with Der Linke. This points to the Greens holding the balance of power after one of the next two federal elections. The Greens and the CDU have never ruled out going into coalition with each other.
Maybe a CDU-CSU-Green coalition is more likely than CDU-CSU-FDP.
Seed planted by Ed — 08 September 2009 @ 12:31
Then what about the issue of Germany phasing out it’s use of Nuclear Power. Most Green parties world wide are oppose to nuclear power and want it to be phased out. The SPD/Green government of 1998-2005 phased out Nuclear Power. Is it an issue in this election?
I am quite sure that Merkel wants to reverse the phase out of Nuclear Power and the wants to expand it which is similar to the FDP position. Maybe a minority coalition government can be formed, and the CDU/CSU with FDP in government can play the Left Party and the Greens against each other and govern. That would be a bizarre, though.
A Jamaica coalition would only work if the Green Party would agree to suspend the phase out of Nuclear Power from the CDU/CSU and FDP position.
A Traffic Light Coalition might work only if the SPD push it’s economic policies further to the right to appease the FDP, then the SDP would hemorrhage more of it’s votes to the Left Party. The SDP is in a hard rock and a hard place. The SDP would no longer be a Social Democratic party, but will have effectively become a Social Liberal party.
The FDP is the only party that is talking about bold economic reforms that are needed to get Germany through the recession.
It looks like according to the opinions polls above that the CDU/CSU will form a coalition with the FDP that has a simple majority.
Is it possible that a far-right populist party will wins seats in this German election like in the other European countries (Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, Norway, and others)?
Some German states see some of these parties gain some sort of representation. Why do such parties gain representation? Are these parties just protest vote/flash in the pan movements or a larger trend? That would be shock if no opinion polls picks up this trend, and such a party gained 5% of the vote.
Seed planted by Suaprazzodi — 09 September 2009 @ 00:32
On Thuringia, interesting detail at EuroTrib.
Seed planted by MSS — 13 October 2009 @ 19:29