Renard Sexton, at FiveThirtyEight, has posted some graphs of polling trends in Germany. The election is Sunday, 27 September.
Two different polling companies have registered recent drops for the Free Democrats, and both suggest that a potential coalition of the FDP and Christian Democrats may fall short of a majority. Both parties’ leaders have publicly stated they desire to govern together, but it may not be possible. If it is not, then either the Greens would have to be brought in, or the current Grand Coalition (with the Social Democrats) would be renewed.
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What that means, I wonder, is that the strategic voting incentives among the CDU/CSU supporters would be strengthened…..
Did Nathan or I ever send you our Germany paper? We are eagerly awaiting the election results with much anticipation.
Seed planted by Henry Kim — 24 September 2009 @ 18:02
It looks like the Merkel -Steinmeier (probably mispelled) debate, where the leaders of the smaller parties was excluded, was a strategic blunder on Merkel’s part. It put the SDP leader on the same level as her, and it diminished the minor parties, particularly the FDP who after all have been the official opposition for the past four years. In the scheme of things, taking votes off of the FDP doesn’t do the CDU much good.
Seed planted by Ed — 25 September 2009 @ 11:58