While various claims have been made about “high” turnout in Honduras, we should approach such claims with skepticism, at least for now. The TSE still has not posted anything other than “preliminary” results on its website. These show, at last check, that the combined votes for the presidential candidates are 1,527,969.
In 2005, the combined total of valid votes cast for all presidential candidates was 2,001,980 (also available at the TSE)
Could more than 470,000 votes (equivalent to more than 20% of the 2005 total valid vote) remain to be counted two days after the election? Or could more than 470,000 voters have cast blank or spoiled ballots? (In 2005, there were 133,351 “nulos” and 55,139 “blancos.”)
I refer readers again to boz’s pre-election post where he looked at the numbers in past elections and discussed the parameters for post-election spin.
According to the TSE website, they’ve counted 70% of the ballots so far. Unclear, or at least I can’t find on their website, which areas they’ve counted (urban or rural, pro-Zelaya or anti-Zelaya neighborhoods).
Seed planted by boz — 01 December 2009 @ 23:39
Well, boz, you are right that we have to wait for the final reports before making the judgment on how the turnout compared with past elections.
Seed planted by MSS — 01 December 2009 @ 23:55
The turnout estimates are being revised downward, and currently stand at 49% (rather than the 62% claimed on election night).
(Seen at PoliBlog.)
Seed planted by MSS — 06 December 2009 @ 19:39
The TSE (same link as the first one above) now shows 1,919,715 total votes for candidates. So it has crept upwards, closer to the 2005 total (but presumably there were many more eligible in 2009 than in 2005, as boz suggested in the post also linked above).
The page in question no longer says “preliminary,” but I do not think they are yet “final.”
Seed planted by MSS — 06 December 2009 @ 19:42