That tooting sound you are hearing is simply my own horn. Tipped off by a colleague, I found that the article that presents the theory of how different electoral systems affect the “personal vote” is the no. 1 “hottest” article at the journal, Electoral Studies. Not bad for having been published more than a decade ago!
TOP25 articles within the journal:
Incentives to Cultivate a Personal Vote: a Rank Ordering of Electoral Formulas â€¢ Article
Electoral Studies, Volume 14, Issue 4, 1 December 1995, Pages 417-439
Carey, J.M.; Shugart, M.S.
The full list of the 25 hottest is mostly articles from 2005 or 2004, and only two others as old as 1999.
The first F&V discussion of the personal vote was a post on Palestinian candidate nominations.
Core expectations* derived from this article were tested and confirmed in an article I co-authored in the American Journal of Political Science, April, 2004. (One could ask what took me so long, but I hope one doesn’t.) Continuing analysis of these matters is the topic of a National Science Foundation grant I am working on now.
*That personal vote-earning attributes of legislators–specifically, district nativity, and prior electoral experience (municipal, provincial, etc.)–would be more prevalent as district magnitue increases in open-list systems and as magnitude decreases in closed-list systems (see graph of predicted values based on data from several European countries). The logic is that high-magnitude open-list systems are more competitive, putting candidates with local connections that they can advertise at an increasing advantage, whereas in closed lists, only at low magnitudes can parties gain advantages over others by placing locally connected candidates on the list. Ongoing research is looking at other types of electoral systems besides purely open or closed lists, at losing candidates, and at specific ranks on lists. It will keep me (and co-authors and grad students–busy for a while. It’s good to know, from the Electoral Studies download evidence, that others find this interesting!