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Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

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  • 25 February 2011

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Ireland; STV

    The polls are open till 10 p.m., Irish time. (How many jurisdictions keep polls open that late?)

    Updates on the voting and, after polls close, the count can be followed at RTE, Irish Times, or Elections Ireland. Also, don’t miss the Political Reform blog.

    Ireland, of course, is the land of the Single Transferable Vote (STV).

    Indications are that turnout is high.

    The Fianna Fail party, which has led the government during the current financial crisis, is expected to fall to third place. How often does a governing party in a democracy fall to third place? Not too often. Canada 1993, when the Progressive Conservatives fell to fifth place, with only 2 seats, must be the record.

    Fianna Fail, which won 42% in the 2007 election, has been polling at around 15%. So, in terms of votes, if not seats, the party could challenge the Canadian record (where Conservatives fell from 43% to 16%).

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (4)


    4 ideas sprouting »

    1. It is cruel and unusual punishment that apparently they do not start counting until the next day.

      Seed planted by Alan — 26 February 2011 @ 00:12

    2. That explains why I can’t find any counts, three (+) hours after polls closed!

      Seed planted by MSS — 26 February 2011 @ 00:15

    3. Its also reprehensible. I do not expect anyone to interfere with the ballots overnight, but an immediate local count in the presence of scrutineers, with the results announced locally, is important to election integrity. The last election in Zimbabwe could not be falsified because the AU and the SADC had insisted on an immediate local count.

      Seed planted by Alan — 26 February 2011 @ 02:12

    4. Canada 1993 set the record in terms of seats lost by a ruling party in a Western parliamentary democracy, but not when it came to popular vote percentage losses: that dubious distinction goes to Spain’s Union of the Democratic Center (UCD), which nosedived from 35% in 1979 to 7% in 1982, that is a loss of twenty-eight percentage points; by comparison, Canada’s Progressive Conservatives went from 43% in 1988 to 16% in 1993 – a twenty-seven point drop.

      More recentlly, and going beyond parliamentary democracies, one really disastrous outcome I can think of is that of Costa Rica’s Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC), which plunged from 39% of the vote in the first round of the 2002 presidential election to just 4% in 2006 (however, PUSC fared slightly better in the Legislative Assembly poll, falling from 30% in ’02 to 8% in ’06).

      At any rate, Ireland 2011 may not have broken any world records, but it came pretty close, with Fianna Fáil falling from 42% to 17% throughout the Republic, and from 39% to 12% in Dublin; in fact, the latter outcome was responsible for the seemingly skewed distribution of Dáil seats, as I will explain in a later comment.

      Seed planted by Manuel Alvarez-Rivera — 01 March 2011 @ 18:15

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    FRUIT FEEDS
    PROPAGATION
    Recent comments.

  • Is MMP in Ireland’s future? (8)
    • Tom Round: I’m not unfamiliar with the attraction of MMP. I felt it myself when I first started studying electoral systems. It retains...
    • Wilf Day: Ireland’s Constitutional Convention is a very interesting model of an electoral reform process. It includes 66 randomly selected...
    • MSS: Yes, electoral-syste m change would require a constitutional amendment, which is why it is a topic of the Constitutional Convention. The...
    • Alan: I expect the sixth and last senate place to be decided by very small margins in a number of states. Voting below the line will have more than...
    • Tom Round: Sorry, I should clarify: A legal change to an explicit party list system would indeed require a referendum to amend the Constituti...
  • Do UK elections now allow fusion candidacies? (13)
    • Derek: I’d like to see the idea of equal preferences in a country like UK.
    • Tom Round: Chris @9: “but in not having an UKIP opponent to siphon votes from the right.” Good point. However, given voluntary voting...
    • MSS: UKIP did admit during the recent local election campaign that it did not fully vet its candidates, due to (it was claimed) resource...
    • Chris: UKIP’s candidates for Parliament and MEP do indeed seem to need National Executive Committee Approval before being placed on the...
    • Chris: I think the key thing in being a Conservative-UK IP candidate might not be in having both of their emblems, but in not having an UKIP...
    • MSS: Here is the text (see Jaffr’s link): After paragraph (2A) insert— “(2AA)If a candidate who is the subject of an authorisation by...
    • MSS: Let me call attention here to Jaffr. at comment #1, who notes the amendment to the ballot law was passed earlier in 2013. (This comment was...
  • Distortions of the US House: It’s not how the districts are drawn, but that there are (single-seat) districts (30)
    • Ed: This is another article where the writer attempted to draw non-partisan districts, using a set of criteria an independent commission could...
  • Does STV have anything to do with absence of “free votes” in Ireland? (16)
    • MSS: I was sort of hoping this thread would be about free votes and STV’s possible role in them, but whatever… Uruguay has primary...
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