Just so everyone knows I have not totally forgotten about the rest of the world while focusing on Canada, here is a reminder that January 25 is a very important date: The Palestinian Legislative Council will be elected. Click on “Palestine” above for previous posts on this election, which covered the electoral system and the nomination strategies of Fatah and Hamas.
Political Arithmetik has been tracking the polls, and the graph shows that Hamas has gained considerably in voter intention over the course of the campaign, while Fatah has been more erratic but has mostly declined. Both trends may have reversed lately, with two recent polls putting Fatah at about a ten-point lead over Hamas. Fatah’s vote is hovering in the low 40-percent range, whereas a month ago it was closer to 50%. The post also contains an interesting discussion of the political context, informed by Charles’s recent trip to the Middle East.
It is worth noting that these polls–I think–are based on voter intentions with respect to the party-list vote. Whether they tell us much about the outcome of the mutli-seat district candidate-based races is dubious (see earlier discussions both in posts and comments about the ‘personal vote.’)
The Head Heeb had a “one week to go” post that sets the stage nicely, and I would imagine that Jonathan will have more in the coming days.
I will probably try to analyze the results once they are in, though perhaps not immediately. As is clear from my previous posts on the Palestinian elections, I find their unusual form of a mixed-member majoritarian system quite interesting from a social-scientific and psephological perspective.
Both Charles and Jonathan discuss methodological issues with respect to surveys in the Palestinian context. With some caveats, they note something encouraging: The electorate overall holds quite moderate views. Now, if only their legislators, whoever they may be, can get out of the way and allow those moderate views to be translated into action…