Just so everyone knows I have not totally forgotten about the rest of the world while focusing on Canada, here is a reminder that January 25 is a very important date: The Palestinian Legislative Council will be elected. Click on “Palestine” above for previous posts on this election, which covered the electoral system and the nomination strategies of Fatah and Hamas.
Political Arithmetik has been tracking the polls, and the graph shows that Hamas has gained considerably in voter intention over the course of the campaign, while Fatah has been more erratic but has mostly declined. Both trends may have reversed lately, with two recent polls putting Fatah at about a ten-point lead over Hamas. Fatah’s vote is hovering in the low 40-percent range, whereas a month ago it was closer to 50%. The post also contains an interesting discussion of the political context, informed by Charles’s recent trip to the Middle East.
It is worth noting that these polls–I think–are based on voter intentions with respect to the party-list vote. Whether they tell us much about the outcome of the mutli-seat district candidate-based races is dubious (see earlier discussions both in posts and comments about the ‘personal vote.’)
The Head Heeb had a “one week to go” post that sets the stage nicely, and I would imagine that Jonathan will have more in the coming days.
I will probably try to analyze the results once they are in, though perhaps not immediately. As is clear from my previous posts on the Palestinian elections, I find their unusual form of a mixed-member majoritarian system quite interesting from a social-scientific and psephological perspective.
Both Charles and Jonathan discuss methodological issues with respect to surveys in the Palestinian context. With some caveats, they note something encouraging: The electorate overall holds quite moderate views. Now, if only their legislators, whoever they may be, can get out of the way and allow those moderate views to be translated into action…
I would imagine that Jonathan will have more in the coming days
Tomorrow morning, in fact. And thanks for pointing me to Charles’ essay, which I’ll link.
One thing about Charles’ post, though: I think he might have been less alarmist if he’d started his trend line in March rather than November. Hamas has been fluctuating between the high 20s and low 30s pretty much since it decided to participate in the election, and the trends over a one-year period would look less like an increase in support for Hamas and more like ordinary political fluctuation. Another interesting thing is that while Fatah has weakened in several recent polls, most of the gain has gone to third parties, with Hamas unable to break out of the low thirties.
Anyway, here are the latest Zajel, an-Najah and PCPSR polls, both of which are more or less contemporaneous. More tomorrow.
Seed planted by Jonathan Edelstein — 24 January 2006 @ 17:26
Palestinian Elections
The CFR has a linkful article on tomorrow’s Palestinian elections.
Charles Franklin has the polling.
And Matthew Shugart moves from Canada to the Middle East and takes a look as well.
Meanwhile, the CSM discusses: Why Hamas is gaining in Pal…
Scion grafted by PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts — 24 January 2006 @ 19:26