Andy Reynolds offers a first look at the election in Egypt.
The electoral system used, plus the overall fragmentation, may be leading to significant over-representation of the Islamist parties. Further,
At this early stage it is possible to predict that once the election dust settles in January the Muslim Brotherhood’s FJP will win a comfortable parliamentary majority (perhaps 55-60% of the seats in the People’s Assembly) on approximately 40% of the popular vote… The ‘losers’ in the election system will clearly be the nascent liberal forces…
Andy also has an update on this first stage of voting, following the runoffs in the nominal-tier seats.
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