I don’t know if the month that is now upon us (how did that happen, anyway?) is as big for election-watchers as September, 2005, was. But it is big.
I already covered the presidential election in Benin in the previous post. Also coming up this month are:
Colombia (legislative, on the 12th)
El Salvador (legislative/12)
Belarus (presidential/19)
Haiti (legislative second rounds/19)
Ukraine (legislative/26)
Israel (parliamentary/28)
That is a pretty good lineup of important elections.
I have already covered the legislative election in Colombia, and will be doing so again in the coming week. They are important for at least two reasons: They are the first elections under the new list-proportional electoral system, and they precede by about two months the first-ever reelection bid by a sitting Colombian president. As I noted previosuly, the new electoral system has produced the expected consolidation of political forces, and the elections are likely to be a measure of both how strong the new leftist alliance will be as well as the balance among the various parties supporting President Alvaro Uribe (who is running without a party label).
The legislative elections in Ukraine are very important, as they are the first legislative elections held since the Orange Revolution of late 2004 resulted in the recognition of the electoral victory of President Viktor Yushchenko. As I have noted before, Yushchenko’s need to govern with the old parliament elected in 2002 has greatly complicated his alliance building and policy success. The last year has been marked by Yushchenko’s firing from the premiership of his revolutionary ally, Yulia Tymoshenko, and later, parliament’s firing of her replacement. Under constitutional changes going into effect (but still challenged by Yushchenko), the parliament to be elected this month, and not the president, will determine the formation of the cabinet and the policy direction of the country. The elections are taking place under a new electoral system of closed-list PR in one district (replacing the former parallel MMM system). Ukraine will thus be the largest country ever to use a single nationwide district for legislative elections. Party labels are quite weak in Ukraine, and regional divisions are significant, but this electoral system is party-centered and lacks any regional component–and it will determine whether the “revolutionary” victory is confirmed or the old order regains greater influence.
Ukraine’s neighbor, Belarus, is sometimes referred to as “Europe’s last dictatorship” and a living museum of the old USSR. The opposition to President Alexander Lukashenko has united behind one major candidate, Alexander Milinkevich, and is hoping for a local version of the Orange Revolution, though it appears far less primed for such a victory than was the Ukrainian opposition, which had a strong regional base and faced a corrupt and sometimes repressive government, but one that was less authoritarian than in Belarus.
Haiti‘s legislative elections are more important than one might expect, given all the attention in media coverage (and the Clinton administration’s military intervention) on the occupant of the presidency. However, Haiti for all practical purposes has a parliamentary system, notwithstanding the elected presidency. It also has almost no parties to speak of (which is the main factor in making the presidency more powerful by default than the constitution implies it should be).
In El Salvador, no significant change is expected in the close divide in a legislature in which neither of the major parties has much more than about a third of the seats. While the ARENA party, which has now held the presidency since 1989, led some polls by a huge margin just over a month ago, as I noted in a comment over a boz’s place, I never believed it. More recently, polls suggest ARENA and the former guerrilla movement, the FMLN, will again be close in votes. As I mentioned to boz:
Since 1997, the second election in which the FMLN particiapted, ARENA’s vote has never been greater than 36% (or lower than 31.9%). The FMLN’s vote has varied in an even narrower band from 33.0 to 35.2%.
So, in the absence of any overwhelming evidence to the contrary, it seems pretty safe to expect that both parties will again be close.
The importance of Israel‘s election is well known. Kadima, the party that Ariel Sharon founded when he bolted his Likud, continues to have a big lead. As Charles Franklin’s polling graph indicates, the party has slipped with Sharon remaining incapacitated and since the Hamas win in Palestine, but it is still far ahead. I am going to copy here my comment at Political Arithmetik:
Based on their current estimates, then, Kadima and Labor would be within striking distance of having on their own the seats needed to form a government (61). However, they are likely to bring in the [National Union/National Religious Party alliance] even if they are slightly over 61, and the trends for both Kadima and NU/NRP suggest the latter will be needed.
Assuming Likud is out of the coalition, the only other likely combinations would include several of the smaller parties that are not shown in the figure. If you add up the estimates shown in the post, they come to 92 seats. In other words, 28 seats remain to be divided among smaller parties.
In addition to the elections I noted above, some subnational elections are worth noting. In Germany, the states of Baden-Wurttemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony-Anhalt all have assembly elections on 26 March. These are noteworthy in that they will be the first test of the relative strengths of the two parties in the federal grand coalition, as well as the main smaller opposition parties, since the federal election of that great month for election watchers last September.
There are state legislative and municipal elections in the state of Mexico, noteworthy only because Mexico state is one of the largest in the country and all three major national parties have strongholds in the state. It will be the last state election (at least that I am aware of) before the federal election of 2 July.
There were also elections in the Solomon Islands scheuduled for this month, but they are now set for 4 April. Solomon Islands is a small country most notable for having extremely fragmented local and clan-based elections–showing, along with its larger neighbor, Papua New Guinea, how plurality in single-seat districts works in the absence of any major national parties. (Take a quick look at the 2001 results to see what I mean.)
As long as we are spilling over into April, of course the snap election in Thailand is set for 2 April–if it is not delayed.
And let’s not forget the assembly election in that last remnant of the French North American empire: St. Pierre and Miquelon.
Electoral calendar from Maximiliano Herrera.
Yes, all the polls have it close now, but there was a huge gap between the parties before Handal’s death. I think that the FMLN was set for a big loss a few months ago and for whatever reason Handal’s death brought the parties back to their traditional parity.
Of course, outside of a few polls, I’ll never have the evidence to prove that theory…
Either way, the two parties only poll around 30-35% each, which makes me believe there is a large segment of the population dissatisfied with both parties and waiting for some sort of realignment. Saca seems to have captured that center population, but they identify personally with the president and not with his party.
Seed planted by boz — 05 March 2006 @ 15:45
Surely NU/NRP wouldn’t join a coalition with Labor and Kadima! They are the grouping most strongly opposed to withdrawal, which is exactly what Labor and Kadima are promising.
Coalitions in Israel can get very unwieldy, so if Kadima and Labor can form even a small majority, I think they’ll eschew other partners. If they do need a coalition partner, the most likely one is Meretz. Other options are the religious parties, Shas and UTJ, which will typically serve with both right- and left-wing governments as long as they get their handouts.
Using figures from the most recent Yediot Achronot poll, here’s a breakdown by blocs:
Left: 25
Center: 38
Right: 33
Religious: 16
Arab: 8
Seed planted by vasi — 05 March 2006 @ 22:25
OK, point well taken on the withdrawal issue, which is indeed the number one issue in the cammpaign.
I would not expect Kadima and Labor to have 61 or more seats. Even if they do, they might add partners. Yes, coalitions in Israel are often unwieldy. But narrow coalitions are unstable, and that’s the primary reason why most PMs seek to build larger-than-necessary coalitions in Israel. Better unwieldy than unstable.
On my remarks regarding NU/NRP as potential partners, I was be a naive generalist, and only going by two considerations: (1) party sizes and minimal winning status (but leaving Likud out), and (2) the NRP having been in so many coalitions in the past of various stripes.
Seed planted by MShugart — 06 March 2006 @ 07:26
I still think it’s unlikely that Kadima and Labor would actively solicit coalition partners in the (unlikely) event that they can form a majority without one.
It’s true that narrow coalitions can be unstable, but that’s usually because they’re made up of many small parties. A two-party coalition with 62 seats would be much more stable than a coalition with 10 parties and 70-some seats. For one thing, there are much fewer interactions between parties, and so less chance of a split in the coalition. Also, less uncomfortable compromises would have to be made to accomodate partners.
I still expect that Meretz would voluntarily join the coalition, without many preconditions, since it closely aligns with their position.
Seed planted by Vasi — 06 March 2006 @ 10:25
Even if it can’t be ousted, a government with 61 or 62 seats is liable to lose some policy votes. That’s why a PM in a multiparty setting would ordinarily prefer to have another party or two on his side than to rest the government’s program on such a thin majority.
Please note I am making an empirical, not a normative statement here. There is a strong tendency towards moderately oversized coalitions in multiparty parliamentary systems, and a strong tendency in that direction in Israel.
Meretz is certainly a plausible partner, assuming it survives. I thought I had read that it might not even gain a seat.
Seed planted by MShugart — 06 March 2006 @ 14:25
I agree that a Kadima/Avoda coalition is likely to seek partners, but NU/Mafdal won’t be one of them. That party is out for at least two reasons: (1) it’s a far-right faction representing the settlers; and (2) it’s likely to be large enough to demand significant policy concessions as the price of entry.
Kadima will look for parties that are small, have relatively narrow policy concerns and will be pliable on further withdrawals. This means Meretz, Yisrael Beiteinu and/or UTJ. At the moment, I’m thinking that Olmert will go for UTJ, which can be bought relatively cheaply and which will give his government legitimacy in the religious sector, and use Meretz as a cushion on policy votes. A great deal will depend on the combined strength of the center-left, though – Kadima may need a four-party coalition to form a working majority.
Seed planted by Jonathan Edelstein — 07 March 2006 @ 12:46
BTW, it’s Shinui that’s looking at a shutout: Meretz is polling anywhere between five and seven seats.
Seed planted by Jonathan Edelstein — 07 March 2006 @ 12:47
Glad to hear that Meretz will be in the Knesset, given that it’s probably my favorite Israeli party. The Political Arithmetik graph I linked to in the post shows the apparent demise of Shinui, but does not include Meretz, UTJ, or the others Jonathan mentions. I thought I had read that Meretz was in trouble, but 5-7 seats indeed could make it a player on policy, if not in cabinet.
Seed planted by MShugart — 07 March 2006 @ 14:07
Do you really think Avigdor Lieberman (leader of Yisrael Beiteinu) would join a withdrawal coalition? Stranger things have happened in Israeli politics, but I have a hard time imagining this one.
Seed planted by Vasi — 07 March 2006 @ 16:02
Meretz has a lot of the right answers, but it’s always been a bit Ashkenazi-elitist for my taste. I wasn’t thrilled about Avoda in its Peres incarnation, but I wholeheartedly support it under Peretz.
If you want to figure UTJ into your calculations, it’s polling five to six seats and has a very reliable constituency (they vote the way their rabbis tell them). The good thing about UTJ, from a coalition-builder’s standpoint, is that it can be bought with a few hundred million NIS to its favorite charities.
Lieberman: I wouldn’t have pegged him for a disengagement coalition this time last year, but the current Yisrael Beiteinu platform pointedly emphasizes social issues over foreign policy, and he recently declared his willingness to leave his own settlement! He’s smart enough to realize that most of his voters don’t live in the settlements and that they’re more interested in social insurance and secularism. Given the right price in terms of social policy, there’s an outside chance that a pullout can be sold to him on a demographic basis. At minimum, I could see him agreeing to abstain like UTJ did with the first disengagement.
Seed planted by Jonathan Edelstein — 07 March 2006 @ 16:31
Massing in Minsk
Several thousand Belarussians are in the main square protesting the official 82% of the vote claimed by President Alexander Lukashenko…
Scion grafted by Fruits and Votes — 19 March 2006 @ 11:59
Israeli coalition prospects and strategic voting
In the comment thread to my preview of the elections of March, quite an interesting discussion developed about possible coalition alignments following Israel’s 28 March election.
Scion grafted by Fruits and Votes — 21 March 2006 @ 18:29
Benin runoff
Benin’s presidential election runoff was not much of a contest: Boni Yayi, 74.5%, Adrien Houngbédji, 25.5%
Scion grafted by Fruits and Votes — 24 March 2006 @ 10:40
German state elections
Continuing my series on the elections of March, which has been a big one for election-watchers, I offer this BBC link on the first state elections in Germany since the formation of the federal grand coalition late last year.
Scion grafted by Fruits and Votes — 26 March 2006 @ 11:35
Israel: Actual (partial) results
If these are accurate as a projection of the complete resuly, Kadima + Labor would be thirteen seats short of a majority, which can count only as a disappointing result.
Scion grafted by Fruits and Votes — 28 March 2006 @ 17:19