Aside from 2006, not much change over time. What has changed is the relative ability of one of the other parties to consolidate enough of the anti-PRI vote to win a plurality.
Year, Deps, Pres
1997, 39.1, –
2000, 36.9, 36.1
2003, 40.8, –
2006, 28.2, 22.3
2009, 43.7, –
2012, 38.0, 38.2
(PRI-PVEM from 2003)
That’s a mean of 37.8% (for Deputies).
So the answer to my question before the election–how big will the PRI’s comeback be?–is, not that big. Just a regression to its 15-year mean.
Data are from the IFE website, following the links for respective years and institutions.
Propagation: Seeds & scions (1)
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