Continuing the series on the elections of March…
Several thousand Belarussians are in the main square protesting the official 82% of the vote claimed by President Alexander Lukashenko, based on exit polls reported on state TV.
BBC has a nifty photo gallery from election day.
UPDATE: Publius Pundit is keeping up with the fast pace of events (and rumor) and posting photos, as well as links to other sources of news (and rumor). I think it is a bit premature of the Publius folks to be calling it a “revolution.” But apparently there was some growth in the scale of the protest compared to the first night, and some evidence (or rumors?) of police standing by and not blocking protesters. Over at the Reaction (see right sidebar, under “cross pollination” for link), I give my reasons why I would not expect another ‘Ukraine’ in Belarus: The conditions that were present in Ukraine are not present in Belarus, notably the opposition’s prior political control of roughly half the country, and its leadership by a former “insider.” (Yushchenko was a former prime minister and head of the central bank; BBC describes Milinkevich as “An intellectual rather than a politician.”
I hope I am wrong, and the absence of the Ukrainian conditions won’t stand in the way of the liberation of the people of Europe’s last dictatorship.
FURTHER UPDATE: Thanks to the scion grafted below by Arnauh, I found the coverage at Democracy Rising, where mattyj notes something encouraging:
the police appear to have allowed the demonstration to continue – at least for now. If the opposition can convince even 25% of officers to leave their protest alone it will cause friction and indecisiveness in the security forces. This was one successful tactic in the Orange Revolution.
21 MARCH UPDATE: BBC says the “crowd” in the square numbered about 150 this morning. Not good.
Just to clarify our use of the term revolution: we use it not to mean an extra-constitutional change in government necessarily, but more to signify a giant shift. For this, the massive and unprecedented protests in Belarus, the breaking of fear, the knowledge that these many people stand together, and the hope that it signifies, is something of a revolution.
The chances of another actual velvet revolution here are still slim, but we’re still holding out. Milinkevich put a lot of effort into making sure his campaign was very grassroots oriented and legal so that the government would have no mora justification for stopping what he’s doing. That’s what he’s got going on his side.
Seed planted by Robert Mayer — 20 March 2006 @ 15:30
“Revolution” is used many ways, but the way I like to use the term is the cracking of the state under pressure from “below.” This encompasses a wide range of situations, inlcuding Ukraine (where the transfer of power was actually constitutional, but it happened only because state agencies, from the supreme court to the police, and ultimately the parliament and electoral commission, refused to ignore the clamor of mass protesters), or the more “classic” revolutionary situations (in which the change of power is extra-constitutional, but results from the state disintegrating under the pressure of popular armed rebellion).
If people in Belarus are losing their fear, and the police their nerve, we could be seeing an incipient revolutionary situation. But I think we are not there yet, and I am guarded about the possibility of the country’s getting there.
Seed planted by Professor Matthew Søberg Shugart — 20 March 2006 @ 16:14
[...] La ola sigue avanzando. Como era previsible, cada vez mas gente se hace eco de la situación. Democracy Rising, Fruits and votes, Chapomatic y David McDuff entre otros. Lentamente, el mensaje se propaga… [...]
Scion grafted by And now, for something completely different… » Blog Archive » La ola sigue extendiendose — 20 March 2006 @ 16:26
Same here. The chances are so slim but I admire their resolve. Just hoping other Belorussians hear about it and think that as well.
Seed planted by Robert Mayer — 20 March 2006 @ 18:19