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Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

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  • 23 August 2012

    Planted by Alan
    Planted in: Australia; AV/IRV

    The Northern Territory of Australia goes to the polls this Saturday. 25 MLAs are to be elected from SMCs by majority preferential voting. There is no second chamber. The numbers in the old parliament were 12 ALP, 12 CLP and 1 independent.

    Because the territory is remote and thinly populated there is usually very limited polling. What we have suggests the Henderson labor government may actually be returned to office, which would be a first for Labor governments in some years.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (7)


    7 ideas sprouting »

    1. It is good that Alan has planted, given that the head orchardist has been distracted (by good things, not bad).

      However, some translation from the Australian is in order.

      “SMCs by majority preferential voting” , in fructovotean, means “single-seat districts by Alternative Vote”.

      (Yes, I know, many Australians use AV and MPV to refer to different things. To the international audience, however, these are variations in AV.)

      As you were.

      Seed planted by MSS — 30 August 2012 @ 15:06

    2. Labor suffered a catastrophic defeat, not so much in the numbers as in where it lost votes. The news assembly look alike 15 CLP, 9 ALP, 1 Ind. The real problem is that the territory has a very high indigenous population compared with the other states and territories. Traditionally Labor did very well with indigenous electors and elections were decided by Darwin seats where the indigenous vote was much weaker. In this election the indigenous vote sifted massively and Labor suffered a 16-point swing in the indigenous areas.

      This was a surprising result and would have very unpleasant ramifications for Labor if the indigenous vote elsewhere shifted in the same way. It also fits very clearly into the leadership narrative that claims the Gillard government’s main electoral skill is alienating traditional Labor electors.

      Seed planted by Alan — 30 August 2012 @ 21:51

    3. Club Troppo has an excellent discussion of the election result.

      Seed planted by Alan — 30 August 2012 @ 21:54

    4. Pssssst, someone more knowledgeable than me needs to start a Dutch general election thread before 12 September.

      Seed planted by Alan — 30 August 2012 @ 22:41

    5. I tend to use majority preferential voting or MPV because it is the term used by the Electoral Council of Australia which comprises the federal, state and territory electoral commissioners. MPV is not quite the Alternative Vote because several MPV jurisdictions insist on the elector expressing more than one preference. There is also a mild element of bloody-mindedness that Australians get to name their own electoral system.

      Seed planted by Alan — 31 August 2012 @ 01:06

    6. Alan’s Ken Parrish link can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/8hjzamr.

      Seed planted by Tom Round — 31 August 2012 @ 09:16

    7. Alan: If I may, I’d be quite happy to oblige, reporting directly from the Hague.

      Seed planted by JD — 31 August 2012 @ 10:56

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    FRUIT FEEDS
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    Recent comments.

  • BC election 2013 (8)
    • Chris: The federal Liberal party hate the Conservatives more than they hate the NDP. They think Trudeau fil will get them a majority government,...
    • Ed: Its been explained to me that BC politics seems complicated, but is actually pretty simple: everyone gangs up against the NDP, but the...
    • MSS: I am struck by the degree of malapportionmen t in BC. For instance, the Peace River South winner’s 46.4% was only 3,904 votes, whereas...
    • MSS: The Green Party won the Oak Bay-Gordon Head seat, with 40.1%. It was not close, with incumbent Liberal Ida Chong having only 29.7% and the NDP...
    • MSS: I guess this is why they still have actual elections with actual voters casting actual ballots! How could the pollsters be so wrong?
    • Vasi: Well that was surprising! Once again, the polls in a Canadian election were off, and the incumbents do much better than expected.
    • Tom Round: BC: where a 39% sub-plurality is enough to elect a government for five years (absolute majority of seats, no upper house) but a 57%...
    • JD: Oh, how different (and more interesting) things would have been had STV been approved…
  • Does STV have anything to do with absence of “free votes” in Ireland? (10)
    • JD: Tom, I’m not sure I understand why primaries the secret ballot. Alan, how is that different from a (closed) primary?
    • Alan: I’m not a fan of primaries, for the reasons Tom states. I am a fan of requiring parties to nominate candidates by a ballot of all party...
    • Tom Round: It would indeed be ironic if one reason discouraging parties from allowing free votes was an electoral system that could enable voters...
    • MSS: And, yes, the larger irish parties do publish recommended rankings, and rotate them in different areas of the constituency. (The small parties...
    • MSS: Very interesting on Japan. Doug, yes, of course it depends on party organization and, in particular, how they select candidates and run...
  • Final MMP Review report is out (11)
    • Suaprazzodi: Perhaps they should put the amended version of MMP to a referendum. They should ask questions like do you want the list percentage...
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