[UPDATE: Actual results have since started coming in. I will put the rest of this planting "below the fold." The real action is in the newer planting, although some interesting ideas about some likely pivotal parties are propagated below, thanks to Vasi and Jonathan.]
Polling places are now closed. From Reuters:
Exit polls projected interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s Kadima party would win the most parliamentary seats…
Well, now, I did not need an exit poll to tell me that. More interestingly, the estimates for Kadima are ranging 29-32 seats (low!), for Labor 20-22 (high!), and put Yisrael Beiteinu ahead of Likud, 14 to 12.
(Update) Now, the JPost has a more detailed breakdown of exit-poll estimates:
Kadima 29-32
Labor 20-22
Meretz 5
(center-left subtotal around 57)
Likud 11-12
Yisrael Beiteinu 12-14
NU-NRP 8-9
Shas 10-11
UTJ 5-6
(center-right subtotal around 49)
It takes 61 seats to empower and sustain a cabinet. The center-left, apparently, did not make it. However, the center-right bloc would not be able to block Olmert and Kadima, but some party from within it may have to be included to reach 61 seats. The Pensioners party made it in, surprisingly: 6-8 seats. It is possible that they could find their way into the cabinet as an alternative to a party like United Torah Judaism.
The JPost reports ranges for blocs, but I am reporting sums of the averages of each party’s estimates, on the grounds that most of the variation for any party within a bloc would come at the expense of others within the same bloc. That may not be entirely accurate, but it seems more so than putting the center left’s range anywhere from 54-59.
The JPost also includes the Arab parties (6-8 seats) within the center left, but given that they are certain not to be in the coalition, I have left them out.
Remember, these are just exit polls!
Election Watch: Israel
CNN reports:
The new Kadima party is projected to win most seats in the Israeli election, according to Israeli TV exit polls.
It is just a “Breaking News” headline at the moment–no further details given.
Update: As I should have k…
Scion grafted by PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts — 28 March 2006 @ 12:28
As I’ve mentioned before, UTJ and Shas aren’t really on the Right or Left. As long as they get the benefits they want for their religious constituents, they’ll join a left- or right-wing government.
I’d really love to hear about the Pensioners Party (Gil) right now, I have no idea what policies they back (aside from pensioners’ rights).
Seed planted by Vasi — 28 March 2006 @ 16:04
They don’t back any policies aside from pensioners’ rights. The party has no position with respect to the Palestinians, and it will gladly support the diplomatic and security policies of any party that meets their budget demands. Ha’aretz is counting them as part of the center-left and, whether or not that’s strictly correct, they’ll be a pretty compliant coalition partner for Olmert.
Seed planted by Jonathan Edelstein — 28 March 2006 @ 16:28
I agree completely with Vasi. I was repeating the classification offered by the JPost. In fact, I almost added something to the effect that Pensioners likely would share with UTJ and Shas one basic characteristic: Being committed to funneling state resources to their constituencies, and willing to trade off almost anything else. Of course, that means precisely that they prioritize dimensions other than “left”-”right.”
I would call them pork-seeking parties, aside from the fact that “pork” seems a rather insensitive term to use in the context of Israel (especially with respect to Orthodox constituencies!).
I often use UTJ and Shas as contrary examples whenever someone claims that there is little or no ‘pork’ in party-centered electoral systems (of which Israel’s closed list, national district is the sine qua non, at least theoretically).
Seed planted by Professor Matthew Søberg Shugart — 28 March 2006 @ 17:00