In various previous attempts to understand the new electoral system that Berlusconi cooked up for this weekend’s Italian election (just click on “Italy” above to see them all in their glory), I have always ended dissatisfied. I could not figure out just what Berlusconi’s “trick” was to divide the left and ensure that he wins even if he loses.
Previous descriptions had indicated that the system was sort of PR, but that the leading bloc of parties would get a guaranteed majority of seats (some sources say 55%, others 60%), and that various thresholds apply for parties in an out of pre-election coalitions. But it was all too confusing.
Well, thanks to Federico Ferrara, it is now much clearer.
For starters, it makes sure that the “winning” coalition – even if it fails to win an actual majority – will take home at least 60% of the seats thanks to a majority premium.
…the threshold… will now keep out of parliament any party affiliated with a coalition that received less than 2% of the vote and any unaffiliated party that receives less than 3%.
[...]
As of yesterday, opinion polls indicated that the center-left coalition leads the center-right – at the national level – by about 5%. Assuming for a second this will end up being the margin of “victory,” one would expect that the center-left will receive the 60% of the seats promised by the electoral law and will then divide it up among those parties that have won more than 2% of the vote. Right? Wrong… Say that the left wins 51% of the vote against the right’s 46%. The preliminary distribution of seats to each coalition requires that the coalition be stripped of the votes received by those parties that flunked the 2% test. Assume, as it seems likely, that each of four left parties takes 1.5% of the vote, for a total of 6%. Final score: center-right 46% – center-left 45%. Berlusconi wins a legislature-proof, 60% majority…
I recommend the whole post. In fact, I left out all the juicy parts, in order to focus on the electoral system itself.
NOTE: Federico clarifies further beneath this planting (click on “seeds and scions” below if you are reading this from the main page), and Alex has more here.
One of the reason for the inconsistencies is that multiple drafts of the law were circulated and many (including myself) have failed to keep track of all the modifications before its final approval. As it turns out, the explanation I provided above was based on an October draft that was slightly modified.
Here’s how it actually works, based on an excruciating reading of the law’s text:
In the Chamber of Deputies, the new law makes sure that the “winning” coalition – even if it fails to win an actual majority – will take home at least 55% of the seats (340 out of 630) thanks to a majority premium. The loot is then shared by the coalition’s parties that received more than 2% of the vote, this time in actual proportion to their vote shares. The rest of the seats are given to the other, sub-plurality coalitions with more than 10%, to unaffiliated parties with more than 4% nationally, and to parties representing officially recognized linguistic minorities that received more than 20% of the vote in their constituency. Finally, 12 deputies are elected by Italians living abroad.
In the Senate, the law is even more complicated. This time, the majority premium (55% of the seats, rounded up to the next highest integer) is assigned within each region (there are 20 of them) to the coalition with the largest number of votes locally. The rest of the seats, in each region, goes to coalitions with more than 20% of the votes and to unaffiliated parties that received at least 8% of the vote.
Seed planted by Federico Ferrara — 10 April 2006 @ 19:26
Prodi claims victory, Berlusconi refuses to concede
Here’s the latest on the Italian election from the BBC:
Italy’s centre-left opposition leader Romano Prodi has been declared official winner of the parliamentary election aft…
Scion grafted by The Moderate Voice — 12 April 2006 @ 06:01
Government resigns after non-binding vote on war policy
Remember, the current Italian electoral system is not proportional representation. Don’t let the media tell you it is! Italy’s last election under PR was in 1992. A mixed-member majoritarian system was implemented in 1994, but in the run-up to the 2006 elections, the right-wing government of Silvio Berlusconi changed the electoral system to an all-list, but non-PR system.
Scion grafted by Fruits and Votes — 22 February 2007 @ 20:15