A pretty good AP story on this theme just came off the wire, although I would say the things they list as a sequence of three (implicitly saying all are necessary) really look to me as “or” in that any one of them should suffice:
First step: Voters must focus on the national landscape on Nov. 7 rather than local issues and personalities that usually dominate midterm elections…
Second step: Voters must be so angry at Washington and politics in general that an anti-incumbent, throw-the-bums-out mentality sweeps the nation…
Third step: Americans must view the elections as a referendum on President Bush and the GOP-led Congress…
In the current context, any one of these should be enough; in fact, any one of them ought to indicate the presence of the other, meaning they are not “steps.” How could you have a national election that was not a referendum on the ruling party, and how could that not be anti-incumbent when that ruling party is as discredited as it is right now?
As for the likelihood of such a nationalized swing, I reviewed that with some graphs a little while ago.
