Originally this was a post about an exit poll, and it showed GarcÃa ahead, but within the margin of error. Turns out the result is a wider lead for GarcÃa than the poll projected–nearly ten points.
Has any president anywhere ever served two terms this many years apart? [YES: RAFAEL CALDERA IN VENEZUELA, 1969-73 AND 1994-98.] Peru had the previous distinction of being one of the few (only?) cases where the president who won the first post-authoritarian election was the same guy the military had overthrown (Fernando BelaÃºnde Terry), but those two terms were only about 12 years apart. GarcÃa’s first term ended about sixteen years ago, with other elected presidents, as well as an authoritarian interlude, in between.
I will leave the original post intact below.
At 53-47, I suspect this is too close to be taken as a clear indicator. I would expect GarcÃa to win, but if it is really this close, I would not be surprised if it turned out the other way. I would guess that Humala would be more likely to be under-sampled, but that is just that: a guess.
As I have said before, what a terrible choice the first round result presented to the 45% of first-round voters who voted for one of the other candidates then running.