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Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

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  • 29 June 2006

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: Judiciary; USA; VOTES

    UPDATE: Thanks to Steven for noting (in a PoliBlog scion grafted below) that the Democratic majority of the House delegation from Texas after 2002 was actually a reversal of the electoral majority. Republicans had 53% of the statewide votes, yet only 47% of the Texas House seats. In that sense, indeed, the 2004 outcome, despite being almost 2:1 Republican, is a more accurate reflection of the votes (58-39, or about 1.5:1 R). So, the old plan was fundamentally flawed and should have been thrown out. Nonetheless, the real thrust of my argument in this post (and as amplified in my comment below in response to Steven) was not that one partisan gerrymander was worse than another. Procedurally, the two Texas districting plans were equally bad, even if the more recent one is actually less substantively flawed. Rather, my argument was, and is, that the more recent one in Texas has the potential effect of protecting a precarious right-wing House majority from adverse national vote swings, and that was clearly its intention. And a right-wing majority on the Supreme Court has said that is just fine. Partisan assignment of voters to districts, and partisan adjudication of the process. It’s a travesty of democracy.


    I don’t want to let the attention given to the Bush administration’s apparent defeat in the Hamdan case completely drown out the far more important victories that opponents of democratization and electoral reform won in two earlier Supreme Court decisions in the past week.

    The other two cases both affect the fariness of elections, and thus the essence of democracy itself. They are, in that sense, vastly more fundamental than the question of military tribunals–which the executive may find ways to continue anyway–important though the latter issue is.

    The striking thing about the two election-related decisions is that in one case the Court overruled a state legislature and in the other it upheld one. Thus there is no common federalism or states-rights thread here. The Court said that the legislature in Vermont over-stepped its authority in limiting campaign contributions, and thereby accepted the principle that the wealthy have “freer” speech than the rest of us. In the Texas redistricting case, on the other hand, it said that it is perfectly all right for a state legislature to produce a partisan-biased districting plan–even mid-census–and thus further entrenched the principle that politicians should choose their voters rather than the other way around.

    It is obvious that the Texas legislature’s act has far more impact on those of us outside of the state in question than does the Vermont act. The Republican party would not have gained seats in 2004, despite losing votes relative to 2002 (and falling below 50%), had it not been for the Delaymandered districts in Texas. Thus the actions of the Texas legislature not only affect the representation of all Texans (something which the archaic theory of democracy apparently still prevailing in this land might permit) but ultimately affect the representation of all of us (something no theory of democracy ought to admit).

    The now-overturned Vermont law, on the other hand, would have limited impact on those of outside Vermont. Sure, if it were to spread nationwide–beyond the friendly confines of the home of Bernie Sanders and Howard Dean–it would have dramatic impact, to the immense benefit of ordinary voters. The Court nipped that in the bud.

    The common thread of these two cases is support for the further entrenchment of right-wing political forces in this country. If there was any doubt that the US Supreme Court is continuing to assert its role as a bulwark against the advance of democratic representation, these cases should lay such doubt to rest. It did not matter whether the justices had to act to uphold or overturn a state decision; what mattered was acting to buttress the power of those who already have it.

    Regarding the Hamdan case, I can’t help but wonder if Bush-Cheney will find a way to defy or override the very institution without which they would not have had their first term in order to continue prosecuting–as they alone see fit–the “war” on which they won their second.

    Balkinization has an interesting take on how the government may respond:

    So what the Court has done is not so much countermajoritarian as democracy forcing. It has limited the President by forcing him to go back to Congress to ask for more authority than he already has, and if Congress gives it to him, then the Court will not stand in his way.

    …by requiring the President to go to Congress for authorization, it gives Congress an opportunity and an excuse for oversight, something which it has heretofore been rather loathe to do on its own motion. [emphasis in original]

    Would that the Court really would force democracy, but that’s a fantasy. Nonetheless, Balkin makes a very important observation about putting the whole issue back in the hands of Congress. Is the issue of oversight of the “war” on “terror” something that will make the Party of Power sufficiently squeamish in an election year that they will not act to effectively reverse the Hamdan decision? Or will the Democrats be the squeamish ones, with the Party of Power holding yet another issue with which to drive home the claim of their own indispensibility in keeping us “safe”? The Court, with Hamdan, may have handed down a third decision in one week that will assist the right electorally.

    Note: The link to the Balkinization post is actually a link to the blog itself, because when I tried it, the post permalink was not working.

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (4)


    PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts grafted Looking at Partisan Gerrymanders in Texas

    4 ideas sprouting »

    1. Setting aside the affirmation of the mid-term redistricting element of the delaymanders, I would argue the affirmation of partisan gerrymandering is more of an endorsement of the status quo than it is a further entrenchment of right-wing political forces, per se.

      The districts that were replaced by the Texas legislature in 2003 (to replace the ones put there by court order in 2001), were based heavily on the previous partisan gerrymandering system that was created by the democratically controlled state legislature in 1991.

      There is an argument to made that as a whole the current districts are more representatives of the heavily Republican state of Texas that were the previous districts that produced a democratic majority in Texas’ congressional delegation.

      All of this serves as a indictment of gerrymandering itself, which SCOTUS refuses to touch except on the racial front, rather than of the particular set of districts in question.

      Not that I will argue that there aren’t some fabulously ridiculous districts that emerged from the Delay plan.

      Ultimately all of this has increasingly led me to think that it be a very good thing for the US to move to a whole new electoral system, yet I also know the likelihood of that happening are essentially nil.

      Seed planted by Steven Taylor — 29 June 2006 @ 14:31

    2. A whole new electoral system, yes. It is the only way. Even ‘nonpartisan’ redistricting would not help much with representativeness or competitiveness because of the geographic segregation of voter bases. (I know this argument exists in the lit somewhere.)

      The chance of electora-system replacement happening may not be great, but that is not a reason not to fight for it!

      As for the previous vs. the current Texas plans, as long as there is a partisan biased plan in any large states that are heavily Republican, it helps protect the right against voter swings, and that is a bad thing for democrats with a small ‘d’.

      If someone can point me towards statewide votes totals under the old and the new districting plans, I will test Steven’s hypothesis that the old one was worse in terms of its bias. I doubt it, actually, but the proof is in the data.

      Really, though, it hardly matters. The Democratic Party, during all its four decades in power in the House, always won majorities of the vote nationwide. The Republican Party has not done so, except in 1994 and 2002 (barely). I’m not saying Democrats did not gerrymander when they could (and don’t now where they can). I am also not saying that the Republicans have majorities because they gerrymander. What I am saying is that, unlike its Democratic predecessor, the current Republican seat majority is precarious and does not rest on a vote majority, and thus it is entirely plausible that gerrymandering can keep its seat majority safe. And, in that sense, this ruling indeed further contributes to entrenchment of the right.

      Seed planted by MSS — 29 June 2006 @ 15:33

    3. Looking at Partisan Gerrymanders in Texas

      This post at Fruits and Votes, and the discussion that started between Matthew Shugart and myself led me to look into some electoral data from Texas. My impetus was the question of whether the current district structure in Texas was better representa…

      Scion grafted by PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts — 29 June 2006 @ 20:02

    4. Ok, I have taken a quick look at the numbers: http://www.poliblogger.com/?p=10258

      However, I am getting quite sleepy, so it may not make any sense.

      More later, I suspect.

      Seed planted by sltaylor — 29 June 2006 @ 20:03

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