Thanks for Greg for the tip on the Texas Rangers having acquired Carlos Lee from the Milwaukee Brewers. I don’t know whether this is good news (the Rangers got him instead of the Angels) or bad news (a division rival adding that coveted BIG BAT will increase pressure on Stoneman to do something stupid).
Wow, two pretty good major leaguers, Francisco Cordero and Kevin Mench (plus Laynce Nix and a minor leaguer), for Lee (and a minor leaguer). Can you say, seller’s market?
The pitcher (and ex-closer) Cordero, whom the Rangers traded, looks superficially like he is having a poor year. His ERA is 4.81. But away from Texas it is 3.20. He has walked 16 and struck out 54 in 48 2/3 innings (overall this year).
Kevin Mench is having a year (and career) not much less productive than Lee’s, and while he is better in the friendly hitting envorinment of Arlington, the gap is not great.
Lee’s road numbers are really good this year (.352 OBP/.596 SLG, compared with .347/.549 overall). But it is out of line with the rest of his career. And he is 30. (Mench is 28.)
In other West-division trade news, I’m a little puzzled as to why the Mariners got Ben Broussard, and why apparently so cheaply (Shin Soo Choo and a player to be named). Broussard is having a career year, but at the price he commanded, he is precisely the kind of player a team looking for one bat to add to its lineup should be after. He might never have another good year (though he was pretty good two years ago; on the other hand, he is 29). He might not even have two more months as good as three of the last four. But the low cost (a minor-leaugue outfielder who is by no means a leading prospect) makes it worth seeing if he might be able to keep his hot bat going a little while longer.
Statistics from various pages at ESPN.com.
I agree it’s a seller’s market, though I don’t think Mench matches up to Lee. Lee has 28 Hrs, 81 RBIs, and a .896 OPS, while Mench is 12, 50, and .797.
I wonder if anyone has done a study on how often the late season pick-ups affect the pennant races. Not to mention how badly they hurt the team that is giving up young talent for that big bat.
Seed planted by Greg — 28 July 2006 @ 11:29
It would be an interesting study. There are trades like the Cubs getting Rick Sutcliffe in 1984 and Sutcliffe going on to win the Cy Young and others like the Red Sox trading Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson. I have a feeling it’s a mixed bag.
Seed planted by Jack Lazorko — 28 July 2006 @ 14:38
Don’t forget the Tigers’ acquisition of Doyle Alexander for a young pitching prospect. The Tigers won the division that year, though I do not recall what role Alexander played in that. The pitching prospect turned out to be pretty good.
I am certain I have read the kind of study of midseason trades that we are talking about, but don’t ask me where! One of the Big Bad Baseball Annuals of years past would be my guess. Maybe Baseball Prospectus.
Seed planted by MSS — 28 July 2006 @ 14:43
There are two types of trades that occur this time of year. Most common is the older player for prospect trade and then, much less common is a trade like today’s where an established major leaguer was traded for other established major leaguers. The Andersen and Alexander trades worked out quite well for the teams that traded them. If Lee becomes a free agent at the end of the season, then wouldn’t Milwaukee have the better of the deal with Nix and Mensch on their roster for the next few years? I think both players have fewer than the six full seasons needed for free agency.
Seed planted by Jack Lazorko — 28 July 2006 @ 17:04
The Los Angeles Times today did reference Baseball Prospectus in their Dodger notes section, noting that deadline trades very rarely affect the penant races to any great degree. Personally, I think the Brewers made a good (not great) deal. El Caballo’s a good hitter, but is he so much better than Mench as to push the Rangers into the postseason, especially now that they’ve lost Cordero, a damn fine reliever? I doubt it, but I’d rather the Ranger try and find out instead of my Angels.
Meanwhile, the Brewers, aiming for 2007 when they hope Ben Sheets will be 100% healthy and in the rotation. Mench isn’t Lee, but he can hit, so it’s not as if LF will be a glaring weakness. Cordero strengthens the pen, which WAS a glaring weakness. Good deal for the Brew.
Seed planted by David Peng — 29 July 2006 @ 23:28
Good to see you, David! And isn’t amazing that the Times actually referenced Baseball Prospectus–and even referred to a Monte Carlo simulation?! I wonder how many readers of the Times know what that is.
And yes, Brewers came out ahead in the deal with the Rangers.
Supposedly the Angels have offered Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar to the Orioles for Tejada. As much an offensive upgrade as Tejada would be, I would not part with Santana. Apparently the Orioles do not think it is a good enough offer, and also want either Kendrick or Wood. And Tejada says he does not want to play third. So, the Angels may have dodged a Stoneman bullet here, thanks to the Orioles over-demanding and Tejada’s unwillingness to shift positions.
Seed planted by MSS — 30 July 2006 @ 09:35