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Fruits & Votes is the Web-log of Matthew S. Shugart ("MSS"), Professor of Political Science, University of California, Davis.

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  • 31 July 2006

    Planted by MSS
    Planted in: The Ballyard

    UPDATED: Phew, no dumb moves by Stoneman! Interesting discussion on the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, and others ongoing at the propagation bench.

    With today being the non-waiver trade deadline (1600 New York time, to be precise), I will be checking the news nervously as I await word on whether the Angels package some of their highly desirable prospects (or even a member of the current rotation) for that ONE BIG BAT.

    According to this morning’s LA Times, the Angels offered Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar for Miguel Tejada. The Orioles said no. Thank you Orioles! Sure, Tejada is an outstanding hitter, but not only did he not want to move to third base (as the Angels would have wanted), but also giving up a young stud of an arm strikes me as too high a price, despite Tejada’s being signed through 2009. Aybar is a pretty good prospect himself, although not the blue chip like Howie Kendrick (who is now playing regularly for the Angels) and Brandon Wood (a power-hitting shortstop at AA who is one of the best prospects any organization has at that level).

    Supposedly the Angels are going to be aggressive in trying to get Alfonso Soriano. Given that he is 30, a free agent at the end of the year, a poor defensive player, and had not hit especially well outside his hitter-friendly home parks before this season,* he should not command premium prospects. The Times also reports that the Angels tried to package several less-premium prospects for Soriano, but the Nationals would not bite.**

    I would rather stay with the team we’ve got than break up a starting staff (that has some question marks with Colon again in the DL) or any top prospects.

    Meanwhile, the Yankees pulled off the kind of coup only the Yankees can. For four minor leaguers (none of whom is a big-time prospect), they got Bobby Abreu (and his .420+ on-base average) and Cory Lidle (an upgrade for a staff with its share of mediocre starting pitchers). It is the kind of trade only the Yankees can make because of the huge contract that the Phillies wanted to unload in trading Abreu, whose power seems to have deserted him since he won the Home Run Derby last summer. It’s a brilliant trade: A salary dump for one team and a key piece that could make the difference in the race for the other.


    * From 2003 through 2005: .260/.303/.465 away; .301/.346/.553 home. Somehow how he is hitting .296/.385/.663 (!) at DC Stadium so far this year. Fluke!!

    **”The Angels, according to sources, tried to build an offer around Aybar, triple-A left-hander Joe Saunders and an outfielder such as Reggie Willits or Tommy Murphy. The Nationals asked the Angels for infielder Howie Kendrick, who is virtually untouchable, and have shown interest in [pitching prospect Nick] Adenhart.”

    Propagation: Seeds & scions (9)


    9 ideas sprouting »

    1. The Angels are in a similar situation to the Padres. They’re in weak divisions, chose not to make a big trade (we picked up Todd Walker, who is at least slightly better than what we’ve got now), and if they win the division, will likely not do so by a large margin. But it’ll make for an exciting finish.

      Seed planted by Greg — 31 July 2006 @ 12:36

    2. Brilliant, eh? I’m surprised you would say that about the Abreu deal. It’s a whole lot of nothing. This is not the Abreu of 03 or 04. It’s a minor upgrade in the OF. It helps them, but it’s not the blockbuster it’s made out to be.

      Seed planted by L-girl — 31 July 2006 @ 13:48

    3. The Dodgers re tooled for the stretch run. Or got tooled. They traded Cesar Izturis and his non existant bat to the Cubs for two months of Greg Maddux and his 4+ ERA (assuming he retires/becomes a free agent at the end of the year) and then traded Joel Guzman to the Devil Rays for two months of Julio Lugo.

      Guzman is a highly regarded prospect and was hitting .297 with 11 home runs at Las Vegas. For Dodger fans sake, I hope it doesn’t end up in the pantheon of one sided trades like the previously mentioned Bagwell and Smoltz trades….

      I have no idea what the Dodgers are going to do with Lugo, other than he will take Izturis slot on the roster…

      The Dodgers can’t take much more inept management.

      Seed planted by Jack Lazorko — 31 July 2006 @ 14:32

    4. Indeed, Abreu has lost his homer power (as I noted). But a .427 OBP is quite an upgrade over what the Yankees had before the trade. And it is not as if it is far out of line with his career (.412). He is still cranking out the doubles (26 in 343 ABs), so it is not like he has become a singles hitter.

      Whether he is an upgrade over Sheffield, whom he will replace next year (when the Yanks decline their option on him), is a separate question, the answer to which is not so clear. But, given a willingness to pick up the contract, and assuming my caluclations about the quality of the prospects given up are accurate, this is quite a good deal for the Yanks’ chances in 2006.

      As for the Dodgers, what can I say that Jack has not already said? (I can’t believe they traded Guzman.)

      Seed planted by MSS — 31 July 2006 @ 14:43

    5. A couple of ex-Padres were on the move again, as Oliver Perez was traded for Xavier Nady. Also going from the Pirates to the Mets along with Perez was Roberto Hernandez.

      Seed planted by MSS — 31 July 2006 @ 14:48

    6. Indeed, Abreu has lost his homer power (as I noted). But a .427 OBP is quite an upgrade over what the Yankees had before the trade.

      I wasn’t referring to his HR hitting. I think $40m for the difference between Bernie’s .750 OPS and Abreu’s .850 OPS is not smart. Rich, yes – smart, no.

      I’m also breathing a sigh of relief, as all the Sox young arms are still in Boston. I was hoping for some middle relief, of course, but I’m glad there was no panic. No one was worth the asking price.

      Seed planted by L-girl — 31 July 2006 @ 15:39

    7. There were stories in the LA papers that Guzman was viewed by management as having an attitude problem, but that stuff can be worked out with a 21 year old.

      I just don’t get the trade, unless Colletti is clairvoyant and forsees a broken leg for either Betimit or Furcal.

      Actually, this little spree reminds me of the trading spree of former Dodger GM Tom Lasorda in 1998, trading Paul Konerko to the Reds with Dennys Reyes for Jeff Shaw.

      Lasorda, Malone, Evans, DePodesta and now Colletti. My main feeling about the Dodgers is that they are a franchise that time has passed by. A team constanty being retooled, looking to its past.

      It was sad listening to the postgame talk show on KFWB during the Dodgers’ recent losing streak and hearing caller after caller reminisce about the 1988 World Championship team and why the current team couldn’t be more like that team.

      There are still two months left in the season. Good luck to the Dodgers, they are going to need it.

      Seed planted by Jack Lazorko — 31 July 2006 @ 17:09

    8. My team, the Royals, traded for 8 arms over the past week or so, plus Ryan Shealy (who may or may not be an upgrade over Justin Huber).

      Most of the arms are young and no one knows if they’ll stay healthy and/or be productive. If one develops into a #1 or #2 starting pitcher, then the deals were probably good.

      Unfortunately, the team didn’t find a way to dump Grudz, Minky, Redman or Sanders for some prospects. It was good, of course, to deal Stairs, Dessens and Graffanino. Affeldt wasn’t pitching very well in KC, but someone obviously lost patience with the talented Denny Bautista. They might have obtained more for Mike Macdougal if he had been allowed to pad his resume with some 2006 saves.

      The new GM didn’t obtain any position prospects up the middle.

      All-in-all, he gets a C for effort, but that’s about it for now.

      Seed planted by Rodger — 01 August 2006 @ 12:57

    9. “My team, the Royals…” Rodger, I am sorry.

      I hope you were a fan in the early ’80s.

      Seed planted by MSS — 02 August 2006 @ 08:45

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